Fuck Erdogan and Fuck Turkey.
And THIS is what is meant by a Power Vacuum.
I don't disagree with much of what Trump does, but his signaling that he no longer wants to fight was stupid.
Here we go.
We are going to put ourselves into a position where our only option will be to nuke the fucking Middle East.
Great. Then we can really watch coffins come cascading off the back of big, powerful planes.
14 comments:
Erdogan is a Moslem bastard.
'Nuff said!
Turkey bombs U.S. special forces in Syria, apparently by mistake.
https://twitter.com/alexsalvinews/status/1182733921298997248
If, IF, Turkey bombed US special forces it wasn't by mistake.
Grounds to kick them out of NATO; which would be a good start. Trump could, probably would, insist on it. NATO would crumble. So Fuck NATO!
It amazes me that Trump continues to exercise the office of the President regardless of what the political opposition throws at him. Perhaps he is the first "Never Mind the Bollocks" President.
Anonymous writes - So Fuck NATO!
I respond - I like the way you think, Anonymous.
Wanna write for our blog?
I've been dwelling on this issue for the last several days.
btw, I think Turkey's supposed shelling of our special forces was overdramatized by some anti-Trumpers in the media and pentagon. Notice there were zero casualties...... I dont think it was as close as publicized by some. And you know Chinese embassies and stuff to do tend to get accidentally damaged during an invasion sometimes.
..... I was not very happy with Trump's call to finally step aside and let the the Turks have their way against the Kurds in Northern Syria. A bad look for us abandoning the Kurds who were our boots on the ground in Syria.
.... but upon further reflection.
What was our endgame in Syria? Were we ever really going to help the Kurds setup an independent Kurdistan and then nurture them into a useful well armed Muslim proxy in the region? Like an Israel, but one that could actually join one of our future coalitions without the polarizing religious stigma?
That was my hope.
Of course I was intentionally marginalizing the Kurds historical marxists leanings and internal divisions. I dont recall a Kurdish Muslim ever blowing any of our shit up. They do seem to be the friendliest Muslims we have ever dealt with in the region. The ones most likely to be influenced with western values.
But that really wasn't going to ever happen with the limited resources we were willing to expend and the universal political divisions in would entail. Propping up a US armed Kurdistan now would be a regional bloodbath. They are considered the n_______s of the Islamic world by ALL the other players. Both Sunni and Shia, Arab, Persian and Turkish. We might gain a land locked ally in the region, but at the cost of every other feigned ally we have. A Kurdistan propped up in Syria, once properly funded and armed, would eventually feel a manifest destiny to expand into its ancestral homelands in Iraq, Turkey, and Iran, while being under constant attack from its neighbors. I personally dont have a problem with any of that, cause you know I love a good sustained Muslim on Muslim bloodletting, but its unrealistic to expect US public support for such an ally to span more than one US administration. And the situation could get radioactive in a hurry.
So what did Trump's call actually set into action?
We now have Turks invading and occupying the only real fertile areas of Northern Syria east of the Euphrates, but not quite far enough South yet to reach the oil fields.
But we also have something else. Turkish soldiers getting ambushed and killed and Turkish armor going boom when it turns around the urban corner.
Think back the Israel's incursion into southern Lebanon back in 2006. It was the first time Israel realized that air supremacy alone, in the age of abundant and cheap hand held anti-Armor weapons, could not protect your armored infantry on the ground ..... unless your willing to instantly kill everything that moves in front of you. Israel couldn't afford the personnel and armor losses, nor the loss of political capital should it revert to medieval methods against the Iranian state sponsored Shia militias in southern Lebanon. Our calls for restraint only gave them a face saving political cover to arrange a ceasefire and withdrew ..... and haven't been back since, at least on the ground.
The situation in Northern Syria could go down a similar path. The Kurds will never be pacified, and while US air support would allow them to rout the Turks, in its absence a generous supply of US taxpayers funded 3rd party advanced munitions could kill a awful lot of uppity Turks. Perhaps enough to cost Erdogan his gig.
I see the Europeans at least acting upset by this Turkish move. If there were to be a UN mandated no-fly zone imposed ...... the Turks on the ground would be sitting ducks for the Kurdish militias. But I doubt that's in the cards. But you know it only takes a few 3rd party hand-held anti-air weapons to encourage a defacto no-fly zone by themselves.
Either way, I think the long term outlook for a future Kurdistan depends on what the Syrian government forces do. If they dont actively assist the Kurds in removing the Turks from Syrian soil ...... in which nothing from Turkey's successful invasions of Syrian Kurdish enclaves west of the Euphrates suggests the Syrians are willing to help shoot Turks, and Kurds are left to defend this area of Syria on their own ..... the case for an independent Kurdish homeland makes itself after the The Turks withdraw.
And if the Syrians do help resist the Turkish incursion, it will only be after their Iranian and Russian sugar daddies green light it. Then you would have an Iranian vs Turkey situation, and nothing bad for us could come from that.
A much more cogent analysis than mine.
But I am not sure you are disagreeing with what I said in the post.
Well I certainly dont disagree with your "Fuck Erdogan and Fuck Turkey."
I'm just suggesting that a possible way that Trumps not wanting to fight could kill more Turks than if we stayed in place.
If we're not prepared to kill some Turks that dont mean we cant support some Turk killing proxies.
..... and not wanting to justify Erdogan statements, but I was arguing with some Turks online earlier today, and they suggested that Erdogan's statement was overdramatized in the western press.
The fact is Turkey has absorbed 5 million Syrian refugees. Europe promised to pay him 3 billion euros if he prevented them from further migrating to Europe. And they of course never wrote the check.
So what he's basically saying is, you didn't want me to send these guys to Europe, but now your criticizing me for attempting to repatriate these refugees back to Syria.
Which of course if there's any truth to that its only half truth. He has other motives as well.
But man, I think you've been doing a great job of blogging your ass off lately.
That speech by Trump about the coffins I haven't seem anywhere else.
I've been waiting for you to start a post about Syria so I could dump my thoughts into it without the consequences of getting downvoted or banned, which happens pretty much everywhere else I comment.
Thanks for providing me a ranting venue.
Yeah, I get it, and I agree. Erdogan was saying something that is pretty rational from his perspective.
But what I am saying is, Trump violated one of his negotiating rules; don't tip your hand.
He essentially said he doesn't want to fight; he wants to get all our troops out of there.
That leaves Erdogan to think he is running the show.
Bad idea, imo.
I dont like it either.
I dont like Erdogan or most all Turks I have run across on the internets.
But you know, it wasn't that long ago that they were the last hegemonic empire in the region. And they were for a long long time.
Imagine how it must feel to be a broken former empire. I detect the deeply instilled resentment in every Turkish mind I have ever crossed swords with online.
And if you look even further back into their history, the first bloodthirsty empire in the region were the Assyrians. They subjugated the Turkish, Persian, and Arab tribes for centuries with imaginable barbarity. The Kurds are considered their modern day descendants. The main reason all the other cultures in the region fear a Kurdish homeland.
And you know its inevitable that our day is coming to experience the shame of being a former empire.
Trump is a different cat man. He reminds me of Siberian Husky I used to have. He might bark at strangers but when they get close everyone was his friend.
Perhaps he does a better job than I do of separating my hegemonic and isolationist instincts.
I'd have to wonder how much watching the parents hugging the coffins would mellow my hegemonic side.
And I do recall him saying something about a proper time and place for wars, and suggesting the civilian populaces in the countries we are fighting in are not worth the trust we put into them ...... and I cant really argue with him on that.
So guess its analogous to living with the shame of walking away from a fight if you've arranged it where your confident your foes are going to beat themselves to death fighting each other when you leave.
Who's problem is it now to get Turkey out of Syria? A lot of players involved .... none of which are plausibly our friends, aside from perhaps the Kurds.
Syria, Russia, Iran, Turkey, Saudi and the Gulf States, Europe, Israel, and perhaps even ISIS were all happy to let us stand in the middle of them and stabilize the situation.
Take away that stabilizing force.... that puts a lot of pressure on the remaining players. How long will Iran and Russia be able tolerate a permanent Turkish occupation of their puppet Syrian territory? Will they strike a deal with Turkey to avoid a direct confrontation? Is this going to isolate Turkey further from our NATO friends in Europe? You know they're not going to forcibly remove Turkey without us leading the way.
It would be nice not to feel any responsibility to police the situation any further. Just enjoy the endless wars without any skin in the game.
It has occurred to me that this is one of those Trump fakeouts - like what he does to the Democrats all the time - he sets up a perfect scenario, then does something uncharacteristic (like signal he gives up) and all of the sudden they start doing and saying things that make them look like complete fools.
AND HE KNOWS THAT IS WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN.
It could be he knows the situation is perfect for a war between Iran and Turkey.
And hence, he would have had Turkey take care of the beating that we ought to have given Iran for bombing Saudis oil fields.
Usually when I think Trump is wrong, he has a better strategy going on behind the scenes.
The only person who seems impervious to Trump's plays is Kim Jong Un.
But who knows what Trump has up his sleeve?
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-security-turkey-iran/iran-says-turkish-military-must-immediately-end-attacks-in-syria-and-withdraw-idUSKBN1WP1DP
And, maybe, just like that, I am proven wrong again for disagreeing with Trump.
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