Gallup survey shows 'sharp deterioration in job market' in Feburary

From the Hill:

Gallup's mid-month reading, which traditionally previews the government report issued at the end of the month, shows a rise of seven-tenths of a percentage from the 8.3 percent unemployment rate at the end of January. That would be the worst unemployment figure since September of last year.

"Regardless of what the government reports, Gallup's unemployment and underemployment measures show a sharp deterioration in job market conditions since mid-January," the firm said in a statement accompanying the release of the data.

Gallup also found that 10 percent of American workers have part-time positions despite wanting full-time work.

"The mid-February reading means the percentage of Americans who can only find part-time work remains close to its high since Gallup began measuring employment status in January 2010," the polling firm said.

President Obama has seen his approval ratings steadily rise — and those of his GOP opponents noticeably decrease — since a sunny jobs report in January. Although the White House cautioned then that emphasis should not be put on any single month's figures, Obama's reelection campaign and the Democratic National Committee both touted the numbers in online ad campaigns.

UN nuclear agency reports failed Iran talk

By GEORGE JAHN
Associated Press

VIENNA (AP) -- The U.N. nuclear agency on Wednesday acknowledged its renewed failure in trying to probe suspicions that Tehran has worked secretly on atomic arms, in a statement issued shortly after an Iranian general warned of a pre-emptive strike against any nation that threatens Iran.

The double signs of defiance reflected continued Iranian determination not to bow to demands that it defuse suspicions about its nuclear activities despite rapidly growing international sanctions imposed over its refusal to signal it is ready to compromise.

With the International Atomic Energy Agency already failing to dent Iranian stonewalling in talks that ended just three weeks ago, hopes had been muted that the latest effort would be any more successful even before the IAEA issued its statement.

The fact that the communique was issued early Wednesday, shortly after midnight and just after the IAEA experts left Tehran, reflected the urgency the agency attached to telling its side of the story.

As the two-day IAEA visit was winding down, Iranian officials sought to cast it in a positive light, with foreign ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast telling reporters that "cooperation with the agency continues and is at its best level."

Beyond differing with that view, the language of the IAEA communique clearly - if indirectly - blamed Tehran for the lack of progress.

"We engaged in a constructive spirit, but no agreement was reached," it quoted IAEA chief Yukiya Amano as saying.

The communique said that on both visits, Iran did not grant requests by the IAEA mission to visit Parchin - a military site thought to be used for explosives testing related to nuclear detonations, and cited Amano as calling this decision "disappointing."

It also said that no agreement was reached on how to begin "clarification of unresolved issues in connection with Iran's nuclear programme, particularly those relating to possible military dimensions."

The abortive trip was just the latest sign of Iranian resolve to continue hard-line resistance in the face of international pressure to curb its nuclear activities, despite sanctions and U.S. and Israeli warnings of possible last-resort military action should diplomacy fail.

Iran over the weekend announced that it will stop selling oil to Britain and France in retaliation for a planned European oil embargo this summer. The move was mainly symbolic - Britain and France import almost no oil from Iran - but it raised concerns that Iran could take the same hard line with other European nations that use more Iranian crude.

The European Union buys about 18 percent of Iran's oil exports, though most of that comes from sales to just two countries: Italy and Spain.

Iran flailed out again just hours before the IAEA team left, with Gen. Mohammed Hejazi, who heads the military's logistical wing, warning that Iran will "not wait for enemies to take action against us."

"We will use all our means to protect our national interests," he told the semiofficial Fars news agency.

His comments followed Iran's announcement of war games to practice protecting nuclear and other sensitive sites, the latest military maneuver viewed as a message to the U.S. and Israel that the Islamic Republic is ready both to defend itself and to retaliate against an armed strike..

The official news agency IRNA said the four-day air defense war games, dubbed "Sarallah," or "God's Revenge," were taking place in the south of the country and involve anti-aircraft batteries, radar, and warplanes. The drill will be held over 73,000 square miles (190,000 square kilometers) near the port of Bushehr, the site of Iran's lone nuclear power plant.

Iran has held multiple air, land, and sea maneuvers in recent months as tensions increase, while at the same time continuing to deny any interest in nuclear weapons. It asserts that the allegations of secret work on developing such arms are based on fabricated U.S. and Israeli intelligence.

But Amano, the IAEA chief, outlined his concerns in a 13-page summary late last year listing clandestine activities that he said can either be used in civilian or military nuclear programs, or "are specific to nuclear weapons."

Among these were indications that Iran has conducted high-explosives testing to set off a nuclear charge at Parchin - the site the agency said Wednesday that the IAEA team was not allowed to visit.

Other suspicions include computer modeling of a core of a nuclear warhead and alleged preparatory work for a nuclear weapons test and development of a nuclear payload for Iran's Shahab 3 intermediate range missile - a weapon that could reach Israel.

The IAEA team had hoped to talk to key Iranian scientists suspected of working on the alleged weapons program, break down opposition to their plans to inspect documents related to nuclear work and secure commitments from Iranian authorities to allow future visits.

Beyond denying any covert work on nuclear arms, Iran also insists concerns that it will turn its uranium enrichment program to making fissile warhead material are unfounded, saying it is enriching uranium only to make nuclear fuel for peaceful purposes such as producing energy.

But because of weapons fears, the U.N. Security Council has imposed sanctions on Tehran in a failed attempt to force it to stop enrichment.

More recently, the U.S., the European Union and other Western allies have either tightened up their own sanctions or rapidly put new penalties in place striking at the heart of Iran's oil exports lifeline and its financial system.

Tehran's expanding enrichment activities at its plant at Fordo, near the holy city of Qom, are of particular concern for Israel - which has warned it will not let Iran develop nuclear arms - because it is dug into a mountain and possibly resistant to attack.

In interviews late last week, diplomats told The Associated Press that Iran is poised to install thousands of new-generation centrifuges at the cavernous facility. That would mean that Iran would have the capability of enriching to weapons-grade level much more quickly and efficiently that with its present, less efficient mainstay machines.

Norah Jones
Don't Know Why

Come Away With Me

The Overs -- over-qualified, over-experienced, over-paid and over-50

On his program last night John Galt at Shenandoah mentioned this article. He points out (as I have been saying till blue in the face) that the 5.5 million people mentioned in the opening line are only those still on the unemployment rolls.

The true number, if you include people like myself who still are out of work but no longer "unemployed" by government standards or contractors who lose a contract but cannot collect, is closer to 11 or 12 million.

11 or 12 million people out of work for more than a year.

I don't agree with everything said in this article, of course. But to many of them I can say I share your pain.

The Atlantic:

The Intractable Tragedy of Long-Term Unemployment
Derek Thompson

Readers share their stories and solutions about the Great Recession's most painful legacy

Reuters

The vast majority of the 5.5 million long-term unemployed have been out of work for more than a year. For this installment of "Working it Out," we asked you if the government should enact special programs to help the long-term unemployed. We've received more than 100 responses. Here are some of the smartest, most heartfelt, and most provocative.

This is our failure as a nation

When people mattered more than arcane ideologies of the hard right, public works programs filled in the gap during economic contractions. We did this not only because it was humane and just, but because it worked. It put money into people's pockets, maintained communities and social capital, and often improved civic infrastructure, which in turn laid the foundations for future prosperity.

We can no longer do this because our political system has been captured by plutocrats who imagine a largely fictitious but virtuous republic before Big Government. You worked or you starved. You pulled yourself by your bootstraps. And you never asked for anything. You earned it all on your own.

The grotesque degree of hypocrisy coming from the right ought to illustrate this toxic myth. As The New York Times reported last Sunday, politically conservative counties are "takers" who benefit more from Washington than they have contributed to it. They imagine themselves Rugged Individualists while enjoying expensive entitlements on the public dime. And if there's even a modest proposal for some spending cuts, they demagogue those as evil (e.g., death panels).

Back in the 1930s, we were largely one nation. Now, we're a nation at war with itself, and we seem to be compulsively seeking punishment for others as a necessary corrective. This amounts to punishment for thee but not for me. Republicans thrive politically by dividing us between good and bad, white and black, Christian and non-Christian, and deserving and non-deserving. This is the Big Lie at the root of our political and economic debate. If we're not one nation, we will collapse. What good will it do if you're snug inside a gated community collecting a pension? The devastation will find you.

The left, not the right, is standing in the way of job creation

On the contrary, a lot of the public works programs of the stimulus were halted by the arcane ideologies of the left, rather than the right. Things like environmental impact analysis and fair wage laws and unionized labor clauses held back a lot of these projects. This is why the WH estimated early in the process that only about $200B of public works projects could be funded by the stimulus and the actual number was closer to $60B in the first year.

My current belief in a politically frictionless world, Keynesian stimulus can help. Unfortunately the frictions in our system inhibit it from working more than a very limited amount. That seems roughly consistent with Krugman's complaints that most of the stimulus wasn't spent on actual stimulus.

My long-term unemployment experience #1

As a business owner, I can tell you my challenge today is not policy uncertainty, tax liability or regulation. It's finding customers. You're not going to fix the consumer problem by putting bandaids on businesses.

Listen, all the things you mention are the entrance fee to playing the game, but they won't make you any more competitive than the next guy, and they don't help me find new products & services or customers to buy them.

Caveat: I'm a small business so I don't get a huge benefit from corporate lobbying, etc.

I completely agree with you on the housing and especially mobility. Tough pill to swallow, but maybe we should be disincentivizing home ownership and giving more support to owners that rent their property.

My long-term unemployment experience #2

Don't get me started... I'm 52 and was an senior IT manager with very strong technical knowledge and skills just below the C-suite level. I'm a 99er and have also stripped the 401K and all savings we had. My wife and I are fortunate we have no debt other than a mortgage that is FAR from underwater. 3 years as of 3/1 since my company was acquired and all but 13 out of 180 were laid off - the 13 folks working on the particular technology that the company was purchased to acquire. In the time since I've sent out something close to 2500 resumes and gotten precisely 3 interviews. My HR and recruiter friends have referred to it as having a case of the "Overs" - over-qualified, over-experienced, over-paid and over-50.

What are we supposed to do? If one more person suggests taking a $10/hour job or worse, I'm gonna' scream. $10/hour doesn't even cover commuting expenses much less provide any sort of living wage. This is what 30+ years in your field gets you in this modern world.

My long-term unemployment experience #3

I have worked as a contractor since being laid off, but the interval between engagements has grown to an average of TEN months. My skills are current, having just completed three years of high level IT projects at one of the biggest companies. Recruiters call or email me daily, so not being hired for ANY position is a result of what part of the process? Quite objectively there are MILLIONS of over 50 workers who are going to become dependent on some type of assistance in the next Obama term unless something drastic is done. What's that old curse? "May you live in interesting times..."

My long-term unemployment experience #4

I've been unemployed for more than 2 years (I was laid off.) and have been volunteering, hoping it will turn into some kind of paying work eventually. I'm a 55-year-old woman. The last time I even scored an interview, the company seemed very interested in me until they met me and realized that I'm not 25.

So here's what this employer did. After meeting me (on interview #3), they took my resume, retooled the job posting based on my qualifications, and I never heard from them again. They clearly wanted someone just like me, but a lot younger. The new job posting lifted language directly out of my resume. Nervy.

Employers have all the power right now and they are wielding it viciously. I'm highly qualified, but there aren't enough jobs. I can't move because I can't sell my house. Where would I move to find a more promising job market anyway?

I hope the volunteering will turn into something that pays because volunteering costs me money for gas, business clothing, etc. My savings is gone, my house needs a new roof, and I don't know what I'll do if this goes on much longer.

The so-called free-market approach is ridiculously WRONG on so many levels. People who think that way must be evil, stupid, and so privileged that they have no idea what really goes on. OR, they are part of the 1% who are benefiting from the hardships people like me have been stuck with and are just bald-faced liars.

My long-term unemployment experience #5

One of the people we just hired is 48 and has been unemployed for 2 years. He's a specialist in servicing lasers that cut sheet metal. I hired him because he "got" why I listed flower arranging as a potentially useful skill on our build, and so far he's working out great. He shows up early, works hard, and picks up on stuff quickly.

Two simple ideas to help the unemployed

I support the free-market approach with these two additions: (1) Triple the amount of monthly unemployment checks and (2) Allow people to continue working while eligible for unemployment checks

The roots of the crisis

I think the free market prescription would be helpful in lowering the overall unemployment rate, but I'm not sure it would be particularly effective against the long term unemployed problem. I think the roots of crisis-level long term unemployment are:

1) the housing meltdown which has devasted construction employment & related jobs
2) the negative homeowners equity problem that restricts mobility
3) the bias against hiring in general due to the unknown cost of the health insurance mandate (which probably also includes some element of age discrimination: the older your workforce, the more expensive it is to insure)
4) the regulatory morass that makes it so difficult to start a new business (some of the permanently displaced workers from declining industries could theoretically be opening taverns, welding shops, engine repair businesses, etc., but it is increasingly difficult to start those businesses.)

As to solutions, we need to get the US economy growing much faster in order to raise overall employment and income. That is really the only sustainable way to fix the housing market which would help with my points 1 & 2. The solution to 3) is to repeal Obamacare, or amend it substantially. The solution to 4 is complicated. We need a federal, state and local initiative to eliminate unnecessary regulations and restraints, and streamline those that are genuinely necessary. That will be a long and slow process.

As to making the economy grow faster, I would suggest significant tax reform resulting in the elimination of the corporate tax system entirely, consolidation of payroll tax and income tax into a single structure of low relatively flat rates with few or no deductions and elimination of the AMT. With corporate tax gone all dividend income and cap gains could be fairly taxed at the ordinary income rate. (This would probably not be revenue neutral at least in the short run, so government expenditures would have to be cut virtually across the board to keep from ballooning the deficit even further.)

Then open up as much as land as possible for energy and mineral extraction. A lot of the unemployed construction workers could be working on pipelines, drilling platforms, access roads, etc. Approving the Keystone XL would be a decent start. Along these lines it would be wise to streamline and accelerate the construction of nuclear power plants.

A tragedy of circumstances, not a failure of will

You know, if you compared those graduating college in 2006-2007 to those who graduated in 2008-2010, I bet you'd find that the former group did much better in their job search and are doing much better in their current career prospects than the latter. But ask a free market acolyte why this is, and they'll point to lack of skills and initiative to explain away the unemployed. Is there really, truly, any difference between the two groups? Couldn't the second group do so much better if given a fair chance? Did millions of previously employed workers suddenly become irrevocably unqualified to work again?

This is no simple recession. People's lives have been blighted for no other reason than bad luck and indifference, and the response by government and business has been shameful.

Not a failure of will #2

There are vastly more unemployed people than there are job openings. I am completely baffled by anyone who thinks the solution is to make the unemployed people desire work more strongly.

How will history judge us?

The plight of the long-term unemployed in America will be the subject of history tomorrow -- frankly, the truly long-term unemployed remaining in America today will likely never work again in the US during their lifetimes -- the options that remain include: a) destitution; b) charity; c) marry money; d) emigration; d) crime; or e) suicide -- I weep for those who are genuinely enduring long-term unemployment in America...

The long-term tragedy of long-term unemployment

Raw self-interest suggests we do something to keep 5+ million working age people from falling out of employment for the rest of their lives. If those people remain unemployed and unemployable, impoverished and marginalized, they provide a drag on the economy for the rest of us.

The value of professional discipline

The Sweeper of Dreams

A short story by Neil Gaiman:

After all the dreaming is over, after you wake, and leave the world of madness and glory for the mundane day-lit daily grind, through the wreckage of your abandoned fancies walks the sweeper of dreams.

Who knows what he was when he was alive? Or if, for that matter, he ever was alive. He certainly will not answer your questions. The sweeper talks little, in his gruff gray voice, and when he does speak it is mostly about the weather and the prospects, victories and defeats of certain sports teams. He despises everyone who is not him.

Just as you wake he comes to you, and he sweeps up kingdoms and castles, and angels and owls, mountains and oceans.He sweeps up the lust and the love and the lovers, the sages who are not butterflies, the flowers of meat, the running of the deer and the sinking of the Lusitania. He sweeps up everything you left behind in your dreams, the life you wore, the eyes through which you gazed, the examination paper you were never able to find. One by one he sweeps them away: the sharp-toothed woman who sank her teeth into your face; the nuns in the woods; the dead arm that broke through the tepid water of the bath; the scarlet worms that crawled in your chest when you opened your shirt.

He will sweep it up – everything you left behind when you woke. And then he will burn it, to leave the stage fresh for your dreams tomorrow.

Treat him well, if you see him. Be polite with him. Ask him no questions. Applaud his teams' victories, commiserate with him over their losses, agree with him about the weather. Give him the respect he feels is his due.

For there are people he no longer visits, the sweeper of dreams, with his hand-rolled cigarettes and his dragon tattoo.

You've seen them. They have mouths that twitch, and eyes that stare, and they babble and the mewl and they whimper. Some of them walk the cities in ragged clothes, their belongings under their arms. Others of their number are locked in the dark, in places where they can no longer harm themselves or others. They are not mad, or rather, the loss of their sanity is the lesser of their problems. It is worse than madness. They will tell you, if you let them: they are the ones who live, each day, in the wreckage of their dreams. And if the sweeper of dreams leaves you, he will never come back. 

USA TODAY…FINALLY SOMEONE….Apple produces amazing gadgets, but at what cost?

Editorial: Apple produces amazing gadgets, but at what cost?

Americans love hot dogs and electronic gadgets, and they don’t like to think much about how either is made. But recent news reports about working conditions at Chinese factories that assemble cellphones, tablets and other devices invite indigestion.The factories have been depicted as dreary places that underpay and overwork employees, some of them underage. National Public Radio’s This American Lifetold of Chinese factories surrounded with nets to stop workers from committing suicide.

Much of the scrutiny has, understandably, focused on Apple, which has become the world’s most valuable company thanks to the phenomenal success of products such as the iPhone and iPad. A remarkably detailed story in the The New York Times recently described an explosion of aluminum dust at a Chinese iPad factory that killed four people, including a young engineer whose face was so horribly burned his girlfriend recognized him only by looking at his legs. The Times reported that Apple had been warned about conditions at the factory two weeks before the explosion, but that no steps were taken to make it safer.

Apple shouldn’t be surprised it’s a ripe target. Its own audits have found labor abuses at its overseas suppliers since at least 2006. Now, faced with a consumer backlash over its manufacturing processes, the company has gone into damage-control mode. It has stepped up its own audits, and tried to buttress its credibility by hiring an independent organization called the Fair Labor Association to check the factories. But the FLA promptly undermined its credibility when its president proclaimed that the factories were “first-class” and “not a sweatshop” — as the audits were barely underway.

READ IT ALL

Nike, Indonesia anyone?

HERE

I will say it again…

There is no more morally defensible position, or nationally beneficial one, for the CIA than to have them HELP the Chinese to set up fair unions.

Where is SEIU? AFLCIO? UMW? TEAMSTERS?

Real unions in china today would duplicate the union movement in america at the turn of the 20th century. That was a moment which saw THIS.

Return to Forever
Vulcan Worlds

The Blaze:

Islamic Worshipers Caught Hurling Stones at Christian Tourists Near Temple Mount

Over a dozen Islamic worshipers were arrested Sunday after they hurled stones at Christian tourists near the Temple Mount in Jerusalem:

According to a police spokesperson, three officers were injured in the ensuing kerfuffle.The Jerusalem Post reports the disturbance started after rumors spread about “right-wing Jews” trying to reclaim area mosques and build a third Jewish temple:

Jerusalem police spokesman Shmuel Ben Ruby said the protesters were reacting to reports that a group of right-wing Jews bent on destroying the mosques and building the Third Temple on the site planned to ascend to the Temple Mount en masse, similar to rumors of an attempt led by former Likud primary candidate Moshe Feiglin last Sunday.

[...]

Palestinian sources claimed over the weekend that a group of Jews would attempt to storm the Temple Mount in order to “strengthen Israeli sovereignty over the site,” according to the Jordanian newspaper.

Police said no Jews were at the Temple Mount during the altercation. The site remained opened to tourists throughout the day.

Three suspects were arrested on the scene while 10 others were arrested after exiting the al Aksa mosque, the Post reports.

The Madness of the Unemployed

We talked about this a bit on The Gathering Storm last Friday (check it out here).

My benefits ran out last June. To say things are getting challenging would be a gross understatement.

Still, I refuse to adopt this method.

No matter how crazy you think I am.

New York Post:

Jobless disability claims soar to record $200B as of January
By JANET WHITMAN

Standing too many months on the unemployment line is driving Americans crazy — literally — and it’s costing taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars.

With their unemployment-insurance checks running out, some of the country’s long-term jobless are scrambling to fill the gap by filing claims for mental illness and other disabilities with Social Security — a surge that hobbles taxpayers and making the employment rate look healthier than it should as these people drop out of the job statistics.

“It could be because their health really is getting worse from the stress of being out of work,” says Matthew Rutledge, a research economist at Boston College. “Or it could just be desperation — people trying to make ends meet when other safety nets just aren’t there.”

As of January, the federal government was mailing out disability checks to more than 10.5 million individuals, including 2 million to spouses and children of disabled workers, at a cost of record $200 billion a year, recent research from JPMorgan Chase shows.

The sputtering economy has fueled those ranks. Around 5.3 percent of the population between the ages of 25 and 64 is currently collecting federal disability payments, a jump from 4.5 percent since the economy slid into a recession.

Mental-illness claims, in particular, are surging.

During the recent economic boom, only 33 percent of applicants were claiming mental illness, but that figure has jumped to 43 percent, says Rutledge, citing preliminary results from his latest research.

His research also shows a growing number of men, particularly older, former white-collar workers, instead of the typical blue-collar ones, are applying.

The big concern about the swelling ranks is that once people get on disability, they’re unlikely to give it up and go back to work.

“It’s not like other support programs, such as unemployment insurance, which you lose after a year or two,” says Michael Feroli, chief US economist with JPMorgan.

Social Security’s disability fund, which has been operating short of cash since 2005, is forecast to run out of reserves by 2018.

The jump in successful disability claims also is making the unemployment picture look extra rosy because those folks are falling off the jobless rolls.

“If they’re on disability they’re generally not counted,” says Feroli, who estimates that a quarter of those dropping out of the job market are getting disability. “It’s no trivial number.”

Anoushka Shankar
Traveler