Jordan gives up on Fatah, talks to Hamas

The JPost's Khaled Abu Toameh reports that the Kingdom of Jordan's 'negotiations' with Hamas, which have been reported in the media for the last several days, indicate that Jordan has given up on Fatah controlling the 'Palestinian' population of Judea and Samaria after 'moderate' 'Palestinian' President Mahmoud Abbas Abu Mazen's (pictured above with Olmert and Jordan's King Abdullah) term expires in January 2009. Jordan, which is known to fear being overrun by a 'Palestinian' state reichlet has initiated a thaw in its relations with Hamas and with the Muslim brotherhood.

SO, IF Jordan has no intention of recognizing Hamas's rule in Gaza, and if the Jordanians are still angry with Hamas because of the weapons smuggling, what prompted King Abdullah to authorize the secret talks? Palestinian and Jordanian political analysts explained this week that the Jordanians have reached the conclusion that they can't continue to ignore the fact that Hamas has become a major player in the region.

Bilal Shobaki, a political science lecturer at An-Najah University in Nablus, said that the Jordanians are also convinced that Hamas might even strengthen its standing, and play a bigger role in the coming months. The Jordanian conviction, he added, is based on the following factors:

• Mahmoud Abbas's term in office is due to expire in January 2009.

# Hamas has already made it clear that it won't recognize Abbas's authority beyond that date, and would seek to replace him with a Hamas "president."

# Fatah's failure to reform itself and present itself as a better alternative to Hamas. Veteran Fatah leaders are continuing to block the emergence of a new and young leadership, a fact which has weakened the faction and damaged its credibility among many Palestinians.

# The imminent departure of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, and subsequent political turmoil in Israel which will delay any progress in the peace talks with the Palestinians.

# The demise of the two-state vision, with the end of US President George W. Bush's term in office at the end of the year.

A prisoner exchange between Israel and Hamas [in return for IDF soldier Gilad Schalit]. The Jordanians believe that such a deal would further boost Hamas's standing among the Palestinians.

# The cease-fire agreement that was reached between Israel and Hamas, which allows Hamas to consolidate its grip on Gaza.

BUT THERE are also other reasons behind Jordan's decision to launch a dialogue with Hamas. These include Jordan's fear of the rising power of Islamic fundamentalism in the region, and Hamas's growing popularity among the kingdom's Palestinian majority.

Moreover, the Jordanians are worried by Iran's increased attempts to establish power bases in the West Bank and Jordan through Hamas, Islamic Jihad and other fundamentalist groups.

The Jordanians also believe that the talks with Hamas will help ease tensions between the Jordanian authorities and the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan. These tensions reached their peak earlier this year, when the Muslim Brotherhood accused the Jordanian authorities of "forging" the results of the parliamentary election.

This explains why the Jordanians have also been involved in a dialogue with the Muslim Brotherhood, whose representatives continue to openly criticize the government's close ties with the US.

As far as Abbas is concerned, the Hamas-Jordan rapprochement is not good news. His biggest fear is that the talks would "legitimize" Hamas's violent takeover of Gaza and undermine his authority. He wants Hamas to remain isolated there and boycotted by the world until the movement either succumbs, or the Palestinians revolt against it. However, the sanctions have thus far failed to achieve their goal of bringing down or undermining the Hamas regime. And there are no indications that the Palestinians in Gaza are close to even thinking of staging a rebellion against Hamas.

For many years, Jordan has feared the establishment of a 'Palestinian' state because they feared that the 'Palestinians' would join the 70% of Jordan's population that is 'Palestinian' and overthrow the ruling Hashemite Kingdom. Now, the ruling family is attempting to reconcile with Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood in the hope that it can buy them off from attempting to overthrow Abdullah's rule. For Jordan, the writing is on the wall.

And unfortunately, it's on the wall for Israel too. The Olmert-Barak-Livni-Yishai government's fear of invading Gaza has resulted in Hamas consolidating its power to the point where it is likely to take control of Judea and Samaria in the next six months (hopefully without being able to reach Israel due to the continued IDF presence in those areas). Peace remains a pipe dream.

Cross-posted to Israel Matzav.