Iran - we'll need what Gates and Obama don't want

A triple Gertz report.
We WILL need to kill troglodytes in caves, but we have other kinds of enemies who empower the troglodytes. And it's not just about BOMBING, it's about the other side knowing you CAN, if you need to.

F-22s needed to penetrate Iran defenses that included Russian S-300s
WASHINGTON -- To penetrate Iranian air space and attack strategic facilities, is not as straightforward as it once was, a report said.

The Washington Institute said the U.S. Air Force would require the F-22 fighter to enter Iranian air space without being detected by Teheran's network of Russian-origin air defense systems. The institute, in a report by Thomas Crimmins, said Iran's acquisition of the S-300 would enable the rapid detection of virtually any U.S. combat aircraft, including the F-15 and F-16.

"There is little doubt that the F-22 can neutralize the S-300," the report, titled "Buying Time with Iran: The F-22 Fighter," said.


The report, released on March 13, said Iran's deployment of the S-300 would comprise a "game changing move that could affect Israel's calculus about whether, and when, to launch a preventive strike against Iran's nuclear infrastructure." Crimmins quoted Gen. [Ret.] Richard Hawley, the former commander of U.S. Air Force Air Combat Command, as saying in August 2008 "for non-stealth aircraft, the SA-20 represents a virtual no-fly zone."

Officials in Iran and Russia have reported negotiations for the S-300PMU-2, the most advanced variant of the S-300 and which contains missile defense capabilities. Iran was already said to have acquired components, including radars of the legacy S-300V, with an interception range of 150 kilometers.

"Iran's acquisition of the S-300 would render Israel's current strike options dramatically more difficult, and could force Israel to considerably move forward any strike timetable," the report said. "Should diplomacy fail, the United States can mount a powerful strike, regardless of the state of Iran's air defenses; Israel, operating at extreme range with the F-15I and F-16I, cannot."

The report urged the administration of President Barack Obama as deploying the F-22 in a forward position to dissuade Russia from transferring the S-300PMU-2 to Teheran. Crimmins said another option was to already export the F-22 to Israel to enable a future strike option.

"The F-22 fighter, however, might represent a trump card that could dissuade Russia from transferring the new air defense systems or that could preserve Israeli options should Russia go through with the sale," the report said.

For the last decade, Israel and other prospective foreign clients have been unable to purchase the F-22. The report said the F-22 ban, contained in an amendment by Rep. David Obey passed in 1998, could be repealed by Congress, which would help the prospect of an aircraft sale to Israel.

WE HAVE 183 F-22'S. THAT'S IT. ISRAEL, JAPAN AND AUSTRALIA HAVE ALL ASKED TO PURCHASE THE F-22, THIS WOULD KEEP THE LINE OPEN FOR US AS WELL. THESE ARE OUR CLOSEST NON NATO ALLIES. TODAY, IF THE S-300 IS INSTALLED IN IRAN, WE HAVE THE 183 F-22'S, AND 21 B-2'S. THE F117'S HAVE BEEN RETIRED. THE F-35'S HAVE NOT YET BEEN DELIVERED. THE NAVY HAS NO STEALTH AIRCRAFT. WE HAVE NO PRODUCTION STEALTH UCAVS.

"Military deployments and arms transfers have long been used by the United States to reassure nervous allies and to forestall undesirable actions. In keeping with this tradition, the United States should consider the forward deployment of the F-22 as a means of signaling its resolve on the Iranian nuclear issue," the report said. "Washington should also consider rescinding the Obey amendment restrictions on F-22 export to pave the way for its eventual transfer. This action could buy policymakers much-needed breathing room, allowing nuclear diplomacy with Iran time to run its course and, hopefully, to succeed."

Report: Emerging Iran air defense could defend against U.S. F-15s
LONDON -- The air defense network based on Russian systems that is being assembled by Iran could defend against a U.S. attack, accordin to a report by a leading defense researcher. The report, "Surviving the Modern Integrated Air Defence System," said Iran has employed IADS technology that could cause huge losses in any U.S. air campaign. "The reality of evolving IADS technology and its global proliferation is that most of the U.S. Air Force combat aircraft fleet, and all of the U.S. Navy combat aircraft fleet, will be largely impotent against an IADS constructed from the technology available today from Russian and, increasingly so, Chinese manufacturers," the report, authored by Dr. Carlo Kopp, said. "If flown against such an IADS, U.S. legacy fighters from the F-15 through to the current production F/A-18E/F would suffer prohibitive combat losses attempting to penetrate, suppress or destroy such an IADS."

HELLO....THE F-15 AND F-16 WERE DESIGNED IN THE LATE 60'S AND PRODUCED IN THE EARLY 70'S TO GO UP AGAINST FORTY YEAR OLD AIR DEFENSES. THEY WERE IN THEIR PRIME IN THE FIRST GULF WAR, 1990. THIS IS 20 YEARS LATER.

The report said Iran as well as it allies China and Venezuela were employed IADS technology. Kopp said only such U.S.-origin aircraft as the F-22A Raptor and the B-2A Spirit could penetrate and destroy such an air defense system. "The United States therefore has only one remaining strategic choice at this time," the report said. "That strategic choice is to manufacture a sufficient number of F-22A Raptors to provide a credible capability to conduct a substantial air campaign using only the B-2A and F-22A fleets." The Soviet Union developed IADS by using highly-mobile air defense systems to down an unacceptable number of combat aircraft in any U.S. air campaign. The concept was deployed in such wars as Vietnam, the 1973 Arab-Israel war and the 1999 war in Yugoslavia. "The Soviet reaction to the IADS debacle in Vietnam, and the not entirely convincing performance during the Yom Kippur conflict, and the subsequent Syrian debacle in 1982, was to develop a new generation of SAMs and radars, with more range, better jam resistance, and importantly much better mobility," the report said. "These weapons were the S-300P / SA-10A Grumble semi-mobile strategic air defence missile, with its semi-mobile 5N63 Flap Lid engagement radar, modelled on the US MPQ-53 Patriot radar, and the sibling Soviet Army high mobility weapon, the S-300V / SA-12A/B Giant/Gladiator." "The S-300PS/PM and S-300V both employed high power, and for that period, exceptionally long ranging phased array engagement radars, much more difficult to jam than the engagement radars in the SA-2, SA-3 and SA-6 deployed and used during the 1960s and 1970s, and much more difficult to target with anti-radiation missiles," the report said. "Importantly, the SA-10, SA-11 and SA-12 employed radio frequency datalinks, which allowed the battery command posts, engagement radars and missile launch vehicles considerable flexibility in how the battery was deployed geographically." Kopp said Iran would be able to develop the capability to intercept cruise missiles. Cruise missiles were expected to be a major element in any U.S. air campaign. Russia was expected to improve its IADS components. The report said this could include the use of wheeled transportation for air defense batteries and radars, a move that would vastly increase mobility and reduce the signature of electronic warfare equipment. "This makes sense insofar as wheeled vehicles are more affordable to buy and maintain, provide higher road speed than tracked equivalents, and produce a less challenging vibration environment for electronic equipment," the report said. "The Cold War imperative to provide organic air defence for tank armies operating off road has vanished, while the imperative of mobility has increased." The report said Iran was also developing capability to jam U.S. satellites as well as aerial refuelling capability. Kopp said Iran's new generation IADS radars and launchers could survive and even defeat U.S. stealth aircraft. "The expectation that the U.S. can get by with a small golden bullet fleet of stealth aircraft to carve holes in IADS to permit legacy aircraft to attack is no longer credible," the report said. "The difficulty in locating and killing the new generation of self propelled and highly survivable IADS radars and launchers presents the prospect of a replay of the 1999 OAF campaign, with highly lethal SAM systems waiting in ambush, and mostly evading SEAD/DEAD attacks."

DIA: Iran investing heavily in Russian air defense systems
WASHINGTON -- Iran continues to seek an advanced long-range air defense system from Russia, despite the diplomatic overtures from the Obama administration. The U.S. intelligence community has determined that Iran was moving toward procurement of the S-300, known in NATO as the SA-20. The community said Iran has been investing heavily in advanced air defense assets and began deployment of the Russian-origin TOR-M1 system, or SA-15. "Iran continues to invest heavily in advanced air defenses, reversing decades of neglect in this arena," the Defense Intelligence Agency said in a report. "Iran has deployed the advanced SA-15 tactical surface-to-air missile systems and continues to express interest in acquiring the long-range SA-20." The S-300, with an interception range of 150 kilometers, would be used by Iran to protect its nuclear facilities as well as the regime in Teheran, the report said. The report suggested that TOR-M1, delivered in 2008, has already assumed a similar role. TOR-M1 has an interception range of 12 kilometers. "Iran's procurement of modern SAMs with automated command, control and communications systems will improve its ability to protect senior leadership and key nuclear and industrial facilities," the report said. DIA director Michael Maples said Iran was combining its air defense modernization with an advanced ballistic missile program. Maples said Iran has been developing intercontinental ballistic missile capability through the successful launch of its Safir-2 space-launch vehicle in February 2009. "Beyond the steady growth in its missile and rocket inventories, Iran has boosted the lethality and effectiveness of existing systems with accuracy improvements and new sub-munition payloads," Maples said.