Boehner's Stunt

From Drew at Ace of Spades:

Yesterday Speaker of the House John Boehner announced that in the coming weeks he will bring before the House a resolution authorizing a lawsuit against the President. The heart of the lawsuit will allege that Obama has failed to live up to his oath by ignoring/rewriting parts of the Affordable Care Act, specifically his unilateral and extralegal delay in enforcing the employer mandate.

This is a ridiculous, meaningless stunt designed to enable the GOP to tell voters they are doing something while not doing anything that will matter.

Messaging problems aside (and if you think the GOP messaging geniuses can sell the double bank-shot argument that they hate the mandate but want it enforced, I have a bridge for sale), consider what Boehner is doing here. Everyone knows the mandate will throw the majority of the insurance market into chaos far worse than what we saw this winter in the individual market. Clearly Boehner doesn’t want that outcome which is pretty strong evidence this is a stunt. If he wins, the employer mandate will instantly go into effect. The Supreme Court doesn’t issue rulings that say, “We rule for the plaintiff but we know he’s really just trying to score some political points. So even though he won, we won’t give him what he asked for.”

Another indication this is a stunt is the timing. Obama announced the employer mandate delay last July so it will be well over a year before the suit is even filed in court. Why the delay? Because if they had filed it last year, Boehner ran the risk of actually getting a verdict in this case.

The way the schedule will shake out, it’s extremely unlikely the Supreme Court (and this case will be appealed there by both parties) will ever rule on the merits of the suit. Why? Because before the courts decide if Obama actually violated the Constitution they will have to first decide if the House of Representatives even has standing (the right to bring the suit) in the first place. This will be litigated at the District, Appeals and Supreme Court levels. It’s almost impossible to imagine that the case will be heard by the Supreme Court any earlier than October of 2016. Obama will leave office 3 months after that and once his term is up, the case will be moot. And even if the Court rules prior to January 20th, 2017, that will just be on the standing issue. If the House is found to have standing the case will be sent back to the district court for trial at which point…it will dismissed as moot since Obama won’t be President any more.

Starting to see why this is a stunt?

Now, political stunts can be useful. They can draw attention to an issue, serve to rally political pressure and do all sorts of other things. But this isn’t a suit designed to do any of these things. It will be a long and technical court battle of standing.

This will not engage the public and arouse any public sentiment against Obama. And it’s not meant to. This particular type of political stunt is designed to kill an issue while simultaneously enabling a politician or politicians to say they are doing something.

Boehner can rally the troops by saying, “we are taking a tough stand against Obama’s overreach by going to court” but it doesn’t cost him anything (Literally. Taxpayers will be on the hook for the legal fees) but he can look tough. Meanwhile no effort will be made to rouse public opinion, the real power against an overreaching President. No, the issue will be tucked away in the hallowed halls of a courthouse, out of sight and out of mind. But something(!) is being done.