Here's the critical question we can't answer about Arizona's COVID-19 spike, WHY WON'T THE HEALTH DEPARTMENT REPORT THESE NUMBERS?

There’s a crucial question in Arizona as COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations rise:

How much of this spike is attributed to people in congregate care settings, and how much of it is community spread?

It’s tough to say, based on the data that’s publicly available. But the answer would help inform what we do next.

And make no mistake: We need to do something next if we want to avoid more drastic action in the future.

What we don't - but need to - know

It’s been previously reported that 70% of the total deaths in Maricopa County involve those in long-term care facilities, such as nursing homes and assisted living centers. Statewide, 76% of deaths are folks over 65 (but we don’t know how many of those were in congregate care).

The state data does tell us that 427 congregate care facilities have confirmed COVID-19 cases – roughly a third of which are assisted living facilities.

But how many people does that involve? And how much of that accounts for the increases we’ve seen?

RTWT.