Monday, June 22, 2009

Revolutionary Guard Threatens Crackdown - Opposition Threatens Strike

Apparently, there is an eery calm in the streets of Iran today. The Revolutionary Guard, seeing that the police and the Basijs have not been able to put down the protests, have decided to take matters into their own hands. 

They believed they could do what the Basijs and the cops could not do. But, the opposition is playing a good hand; a general strike.

What are the Revolutionary Guard can do about that? Go door to door and force people to work?


Iran’s Revolutionary Guard is threatening to crush any further opposition protests over the disputed presidential election and warns demonstrators to prepare for a “revolutionary confrontation” if they take to the streets again.

The country’s most powerful military force ordered demonstrators to “end the sabotage and rioting activities” and said their resistance is a “conspiracy” against Iran.

A statement posted Monday on the Guard’s website warned protesters to “be prepared for a resolution and revolutionary confrontation with the Guards, Basij and other security forces and disciplinary forces.”

The mullahs have given up on the police and Basijis alone. The police and Basijis have failed to put Iranians back in their place as subjects, and the only option left is a military operation to clear the streets.

If the Revolutionary Guard makes good on its threat, the transition to military dictatorship will be complete.  The mullahs will have no credibility with the people and will remain completely reliant on its army to maintain power internally.  The Revolutionary Guard will understand this well, and will quickly turn Khamenei and his elders into nothing more than puppets for the Guard’s purposes.  The question then will be whether the Guard can maintain control over 70 million Iranians who have already lost faith in their theocrats and never assented to rule by military force.

That assumes the Revolutionary Guard will remain cohesive.  Their senior leadership will see this as a way to grab power, but the rank and file may find it difficult to go to war with their own people, especially against Iranians protesting an election that the Revolutionary Guard considers stolen from one of their own.  Will the Revolutionary Guard maintain cohesion as they march into Iran’s cities and kill women and children?  The fact that the mullahs have to play this card makes the question all the more critical.

UpdateUnconfirmed reports have the opposition calling for a general strike of indeterminate length starting tomorrow.  That will be difficult for a military operation to counter, and will further undermine the mullahs, if successful.

Update II: Allahpundit retweets a report from Tehran that claims the streets have gone quiet today, with Basiji and police patrolling in large numbers.  The strike may be the next phase, if it’s true and it’s successful.

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