Gertz’s, GeoStrategy Direct :
U.S. simulation: Israeli strike on Iran no longer ‘significant factor’
TEL AVIV — The United States is no longer concerned that Israel could attack Iran, a report said.
The Institute for National Security Studies determined that
Washington was ready to conclude what the report termed a “bad deal”
that would sustain Iran’s nuclear program.
Israeli Air Force jets in military exercise.
In a
simulation, the institute said President Barack Obama was no longer
concerned that Israel would destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities.
"The simulation demonstrated that U.S. fears of an Israeli attack
against Iran’s facilities have diminished," the report, titled
"Simulation Exercise: The Aftermath of a ‘Bad Deal’ with Iran," said.
"It appears that the concerns over an Israeli strike are no longer a
significant factor among United States calculations."
The report, dated Nov. 2, outlined a recent simulation of
negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 nations for a permanent accord on
Iran’s nuclear program. The institute, citing negotiations to reach an
agreement by Nov. 25, envisioned loopholes that would enable Teheran to
maintain its capability to produce nuclear weapons.
"This could well lead to strategic surprise should Israel attack after facing a ‘bad deal,’" the report said.
Under the simulation, Israel determined that the P5+1 failed to
reduce Iran’s stockpile of low-enriched uranium, dismantle centrifuges
or suspend the heavy water plant at Arak, meant to produce plutonium. In
response, Israel renewed military preparations to destroy Iran’s
nuclear program.
"Maneuvers and media leaks were ordered to suggest that the use of
military force was, once again, a credible option," the report on the
simulation said.
But the United States refused to revise the nuclear accord, rather it
offered to draft a commitment to help Israeli security. For its part,
Iran did not find Israeli military preparations as credible.
"This development pushed it to take steps to demonstrate concern,
such as increasing coordination with Hizbullah," the report said. "Iran
was not impressed by Israel’s threats to use force against its
facilities, believing that such threats were not credible in the current
climate in the Middle East."
The simulation determined that Obama would sign the agreement without
approval by Congress. Israel was urged to cooperate with Russia and
Arab states before any agreement is reached.
"In light of the main insights to emerge from the game, and
especially Israel’s limited ability to influence a UNSC resolution
following a P5+1-Iran deal, Israel should act in the coming weeks to
address the potential difficulties that would arise from a possible ‘bad
deal’ before it is too late," the report said.
I think that would do nicely in the aftermath of a bad deal
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