Not for the first time, European capitals are gripped with apprehension that Russian President Vladimir Putin will surgically divide the transatlantic alliance as well as get everything he wants in Ukraine.
Ahead of the suddenly announced summit in Alaska on Friday between Putin and US President Donald Trump, one European diplomat, who declined to be named as they were not authorized to speak on the record, told CNN: “We are at risk of being a footnote in history.”
In part, European fears are down to just how little is known about what the Kremlin has proposed in order to halt the fighting in Ukraine. Putin has given no details. US envoy Steve Witkoff said nothing after his meeting with the Russian leader last Wednesday.
Trump himself said after Witkoff left Moscow: “It’s very complicated. We’re going to get some back, we’re going to get some switched. There will be some swapping of territories, to the betterment of both.”
The Europeans fear “the betterment of both” is a very unlikely outcome. There is zero indication that Putin has shifted an inch on his maximalist demands – either territorially or in terms of Ukraine remaining a punching bag for Russia without any security guarantees and with limits on the size and capabilities of its military.
“There is no sense in Paris, Berlin or London that seizing someone else’s territory matters to this US administration, and the (Europeans) find that deeply disturbing,” said the diplomat.
The UK, France, Germany, Italy and the EU felt obliged to say in a joint statement Saturday: “We remain committed to the principle that international borders must not be changed by force.” Poland and Finland also signed the statement.
They spent much of the day making the case to US Vice President JD Vance, who was about to start a vacation in the UK, and trying to get clarity on what would be negotiated.
The “Trump Administration has described Russian President Vladimir Putin’s reported demands for a ceasefire in Ukraine in four different ways since August 6,” according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington DC-based think-tank.
There is one thread common to all versions: that Putin will demand that Ukrainian forces withdraw from all parts of Donetsk region they still hold. This would include substantial cities: Slovyansk, Kramatorsk and Kostyantynivka.
“Conceding to such a demand would force Ukraine to abandon its “fortress belt,” the main fortified defensive line in Donetsk Oblast since 2014,” noted ISW, exposing Ukraine to further aggression down the line.
Mick Ryan, who tracks the Ukrainian conflict in his Futura Doctrina blog, said Sunday that “Ukraine, more than anyone, understands that ceded territory would then be used as the launch pad for future Russian aggression.”
The parallels with the Munich Agreement between British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain and Adolf Hitler in 1938 are striking. Even after the Nazis invaded Czechoslovakia, Chamberlain said he had been assured by Hitler: “This is the last territorial claim which I have to make in Europe.”
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