MENSA article of the week : Iran sees U.S. NIE as green light...DUH

JERUSALEM - GERTZ— A report from Israel's intelligence community has concluded that the U.S. National Intelligence Estimate on Iran released in December 2007 ended any prospect of an international coalition against Teheran.

"So, ironically, the NIE opens the way for Iran to achieve its military nuclear ambitions without any interference," the report stated.

The community was said to have assessed that China and Russia would succeed in opposing any resolution in the United Nations Security Council concerning Teheran's refusal to comply with the demand to end uranium enrichment.

As much as I admire John Bolton, his reason for not leaving the UN and asking them to leave was that it could be an effective way for american foreign policy objectives to be secured. Since this, and other actions, decisions and motivations are THE CASE for the UN and not the exception, I believe the opposite. So long as we remain a part of this, we give our acquiescence to idea that decisions which arise from the body, and censures, and majority 'opinions' from it are the will of the world, and are 'right'. We simply have no place there, nor do several other countries. I can't imagine what positive achievement for the USA and IT'S PEOPLE can possibly emerge from the UN any more.

"The NIE has clearly weakened international support for tougher sanctions against Iran and has weakened Turkey and the moderate Sunni countries in the region that were seeking to build a coalition against Iran," former Israeli military intelligence chief, [Res.] Maj. Gen. Aharon Zeevi Farkash, said.

This is the result of this administration's failure to master those who consider themselves the proper arbiter of national policy, they who think of themselves as the 'permanent government'. We need an administration who can ensure that these people recognize they are there to carry out the will of the people as expressed by the election of the executive, or RESIGN, or be shown the door. There are plenty of think tanks. It's time for the executive to reform the government employment acts in concert with congress to ensure the will of the people can be carried out.

In a report, Farkash, who remains close to Israel's intelligence community, asserted that Iran could be capable of producing enough highly-enriched uranium for an atomic bomb by late 2009.

I believe 100% that THIS is the most accurate estimate. 1944 Oak ridge begins gaseous diffusion for U235 concentration, nuclear weapon dropped (UNTESTED, the July test at Alamogordo was a plutonium device), August 1945.

The former intelligence chief, citing Israeli assessments, dismissed NIE's distinction between Iranian military and civilian nuclear programs.

"The enrichment of uranium, critical to both civilian and military uses, is continuing," Farkash said. "Once they have enough enriched uranium, they will be 3-6 months away from building a nuclear bomb if they decide to do so."

The Israeli intelligence community has determined that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003. This included the suspension of uranium enrichment and plutonium production, development of a nuclear warhead and extending the range of the Shihab-3 ballistic missile.

But Iran resumed its nuclear weapons program around 2004, the Israeli intelligence assessment reported. Since then, Teheran assembled at least 3,000 centrifuges and accelerated missile development efforts.

"If parts of the nuclear weapons program were restarted, there is every reason to believe that all parts were reactivated as well," the report, authored by Farkash, said. "Indeed, Iran's development of surface-to-surface missiles had never ceased, even when uranium enrichment had been temporarily halted."

Farkash, who left his post as military intelligence chief in 2006, said Iran has sought to procure all of the components required for a nuclear weapons program. In 2004, he said, Iran attempted to procure fast high voltage switches suitable for a nuclear weapons system, while the Iranian Defense Ministry supervised the mining of uranium in the southeast.

"The NIE has clearly weakened international support for tougher sanctions against Iran, and it closes off any military option for the Bush administration," the report said. "The NIE has sent a signal to Teheran that the danger of external sanctions has ended."

According to Dr. Hassan Abbasi, adviser to the Iranian govt, the global balance of power is in a state of flux and every nation should fight for a place in a future equilibrium. The Western powers, especially the United States, still wield immense military and economic power that "looks formidable on paper." But they are unable to use that power because their populations have become "risk-averse." "The Western man today has no stomach for a fight," Abbasi says. "This phenomenon is not new: All empires produce this type of man, the self-centered, materialist, and risk-averse man." Abbasi believes that the US intervention in Iraq, which involved "slightly higher risks" than the invasion of Afghanistan, was the very last of its kind. And even then, the US went into Iraq because of President George W Bush's "readiness to do what no other American leader would dare contemplate.