US intelligence: Iran will be able to build first nuclear bomb by February
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
US intelligence's amended estimate, that Iran will be ready to build its first bomb just one month after the next US president is sworn in, is disclosed by DEBKAfile's Washington sources as having been relayed as a guideline to the Middle East teams of both presidential candidates, Senators John McCain and Barack Obama.
The information prompted the assertion by Democratic vice presidential nominee Joseph Biden in Seattle Sunday, Oct. 19: "It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy."
DEBKAfile's military sources cite the new US timeline: By late January, 2009, Iran will have accumulated enough low-grade enriched uranium (up to 5%) for its "break-out" to weapons grade (90%) material within a short time. For this, the Iranians have achieved the necessary technology. In February, they can move on to start building their first nuclear bomb.
US intelligence believes Tehran has the personnel, plans and diagrams for a bomb and has been running experiments to this end for the past two years. The UN International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna last week asked Tehran to clarify recent complex experiments they conducted in detonating nuclear materials for a weapon, but received no answer.
The same US evaluation adds that the Iranian leadership is holding off its go-ahead to start building the bomb until the last minute so as to ward off international pressure to stop at the red line.
This development together with the galloping global economic crisis will force the incoming US president to go straight into decision-making without pause on Day One in the Oval Office. He will have to determine which urgent measures can serve best for keeping a nuclear bomb out of the Islamic republic's hands - diplomatic or military – and how to proceed if those measures fail.
His knowledge of the challenge colored Sen. Biden's additional words in Seattle: "Remember I said it standing here if you don't remember anything else I said. Watch, we're gonna have an international crisis, a generated crisis, to test the mettle of this guy."
Israel's political and military leaders also face a tough dilemma that can no longer be put off of whether to strike Iran's nuclear installations militarily in the next three months between US presidencies before the last window closes, or take a chance on coordination with the next president.
Waiting for the "international community" to do the job of stopping Iran, as urged by governments headed by Ariel Sharon and Ehud Olmert - and strongly advocated Tzipi Livni, foreign minister and would-be prime minister - has been a washout. Iran stands defiantly on the threshold of a nuclear weapon.
Ynetnews, Israel - 12 hours ago
"Even if you decide to walk out tomorrow from the non-proliferation treaty and you go into a lot of scenarios, we're still not going to see Iran tomorrow
Iran promises no mercy against aggressor
10 comments:
Why do I have the feeling this news has already been broken to the Obamassiah and, more to the point, Sen. Biden?
Gird ya loins...
It actually says exactly that in the first two paragraphs:
US intelligence's amended estimate, that Iran will be ready to build its first bomb just one month after the next US president is sworn in, is disclosed by DEBKAfile's Washington sources as having been relayed as a guideline to the Middle East teams of both presidential candidates, Senators John McCain and Barack Obama.
The information prompted the assertion by Democratic vice presidential nominee Joseph Biden in Seattle Sunday, Oct. 19: "It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy."
Pastorius,
This is scary
Scary but makes perfect sense. Biden stated:
"“he’s gonna need help. And the kind of help he’s gonna need is, he’s gonna need you - not financially to help him - we’re gonna need you to use your influence, your influence within the community, to stand with him. Because it’s not gonna be apparent initially, it’s not gonna be apparent that we’re right.”
. . .which could be interpretted as Obama and Biden will sacrifice Israel.
Based on what you ask? Try this:
Joseph Biden has shown a softness toward Iran - Haaretz - Israel News
Ha’aretz reports that Joe Biden told Israeli leaders that they would have to accept a nuclear Iran if Barack Obama wins the Presidency.
Kind of a sensationalist headline, but bear with me. Here is Obama saying in Pittsburgh that "no one's been a more stalwart ally of Israel than him. Here is Biden saying last night that "no one in the United States Senate has been a better friend to Israel than him. One of them is obviously... reaching. And while this isn't really a scandal - notwithstanding Biden's continuing eagerness to trump his running mate - it's a good time to remind people that they're both wrong.
Of course they're going to degrade US-Israeli ties. It's what their foreign policy team thinks has to be done:
That's what his foreign policy team thinks needs to be done to promote American interests. It will be a White House that changes US priorities. It will be friendlier with Hamas and friendlier with Syria and friendlier with radical Muslim countries and friendlier with Hezbollah - all at the expense of Israel. Following the personal declarations of Obama, it will obviously be friendlier with Iran. And it will be an administration institutionally predisposed to blame Israel for Middle East instability across the board.
How about this:Biden once tried to zero out aid to Israel. Since there are Senators who haven't tried to zero out aid to Israel, can Biden really be the best friend Israel's had in the Senate?
HRW
If they sacrifice Israel they won´t be right!
In 1944, the Oak Ridge TN Uranium gaseous diffusion plant went into full time operation at manufacturing levels.
In July 1945 we had enough U235 for a bomb design SO RELIABLE we didn't need to test it, except over Hiroshima. The Alamagordo test was a plutonium device which required microsecond explosive implosion accuracy.
Do we think the Iranians are stupid?
Do we think they will take longer with modern technology than we did at the dawn of all this?
Do we think they couldn't drive a truck across Iran thru Turkey, Syria and/or Jordan and into Israel SOMEHOW?
More importantly, do we think ANYONE WILL TAKE ACTION after Bush totally fucked up WMD in Iraq, and fired no one after either 9/11 or that intelligence failure?
I just saw a scary interview with John Bolton over on LGF. What was scary was Bolton -- a man at the top of my list of people whose opinion I trust -- runs on about Obama being "weak" and "naive".
Forgodsake John, don't you, of all people, recognize a set-up when you see one? There is nothing "naive" about Obama. He is the groomed candidate -- over more than 20 years -- of the radical Left and would they really take a chance of taking some naive, "weak", clueless stooge and gambling that they can turn him into the Manchurian Candidate without him or anyone around him catching on? Assume that they can count on controlling and manipulating him once he's in office? Maybe, but I don't think so. It is too obvious that they have manufactured their perfect candidate. We must see this man as the twisted, conniving little traitor that he is, not some misguided innocent being used as a beard by the Evil Marxist Conspiracy. He is a Player. It is clear from his books, from his associations, even from his marriage. This is not poor, brainwashed Raymond Shaw from The Manchurian Candidate. This is his traitorous bitch of a mother in drag.
revereridesagain,
You don't like Obama.
damien,
How'd ya guess?
revereridesagain,
Your words implied that you did not like him and by the way, I don't like him either, although maybe not as much as you.
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