Obama's North Korea policy repeating past mistakes

Examiner h/t In From The Cold

Obama's North Korea policy repeating past mistakes
by Nate Hale

While members of the administration--and the press corps--congratulate each other on President Obama's first hundred days in office, one item is conspiciously absent from his list of early "accomplishments."

For all the talk about a "new tone," and overtures around the globe, one element of Mr. Obama's foreign policy has been an abject failure.

We refer to his dealings with North Korea.

Since Inauguration Day Pyongyang has repeatedly thumbed its nose at the U.S. and its allies, signaling a much more provocative approach toward its longtime adversaries. In response, Washington has (once again) turned the other cheek, seeking only mild punishment for North Korea's violation of existing U.N. resolutions. American officials have also urged the DPRK to return to the Six Party nuclear talks, which have been stalled for months.

From the moment Mr. Obama entered the presidency, it has been clear that Pyongyang planned to test him. By late February. intelligence agencies in the U.S., Japan and South Korea were detecting suspicious activity at Musudan-ri, North Korea's long-range missile test facility. Preparations for a launch of a Tapeodong-2 ICBM were underway.

While Pyongyang claimed the missile was actually a space launch vehicle, experts expressed serious doubt. North Korea made similar statements before the first TD-2 test in 1998, but no satellite was ever detected.

Adopting a non-confrontational approach, senior U.S. officials decided to give the DPRK the benefit of the doubt. Testifying before Congress in early March, the new Director of National Intelligence, retired Admiral Dennis Blair, said he believed the rocket would be used as a launch platform--despite the absence of conclcusive evidence.

Members of the Obama national security team also made it clear that the United States would not attempt to intercept the missile--as the Bush Administration vowed before the second TD-2 launch in 2006. That created confusion among America's allies in northeast Asia. Tokyo dispatched its missile defense ships to the Sea of Japan and threatened to shoot down the TD-2. It was a remarkable stance for a nation whose constitution officially renounces militarism.

Not surprisingly, Pyongyang was undeterred. The missile test went off as scheduled on April 5th, but a satellite never reached orbit. Intelligence analysts report that the TD-2's third stage failed, although its unclear if the missile actually carried a satellite payload. Many experts remain convinced that the launch was nothing more than a missile test.

In response, Washington vowed to seek new sanctions against North Korea. Meanwhile, Kim Jong-il's regime was moving on to other, equally outrageous acts. Less than a year after (supposedly) shuttering its nuclear efforts, Pyongyang promised to restart the program. A few days ago, the DPRK announced that it is reprocessing fuel rods from its nuclear reactors, creating more material for additional nuclear weapons.

And, if that weren't enough, North Korea is pressing ahead with the "trial" of two U.S. journalists, arrested along the Chinese border in mid-March. Reporter Lisa Ling and photographer Euna Kim were detained while filming a documentary on North Korean refugees who flee across the border, seeking refuge in the PRC. At last report, Ling and Kim were facing espionage charges. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has voiced "concern" over the matter. That must be reassuring to the families of the detainees, facing an uncertain future in a North Korean jail.

To be fair, the Obama Administration isn't the first to ignore--or reward--bad behavior by Pyongyang. Bill Clinton got the ball rolling in 1994, entering into the first nuclear agreement with the DPRK. Instead of abandoning his nuclear ambitions, Kim Jong-il simply shifted them underground. While the U.S. and South Korea provided millions in economic aid, North Korea continued development of nuclear weapons, culminating in a partially-successful test in 2006.

George W. Bush eventually adopted a similar approach, bringing more countries to the bargaining table as part of the Six Party process. Mr. Bush's negotiators put a premium on reaching some sort of accord with North Korea, disregarding violations of existing agreements. Mr. Obama has continued that policy, showing the same willingness to ignore Pyongyang's deliberate misconduct.

The results of this strategy are utterly predictable. There will be more provocations from Pyongyang, as Kim Jong-il tests the limits of our patience--and that of our allies. Against that backdrop, tougher measures might be in order, but Mr. Obama remains committed to the diplomatic track, much to the DPRK's delight. The president's current policy on North Korea is little more than an invitation to failure--or worse yet, an opportunity for more concessions and ill-advised agreements.