The Job Numbers Racket

Take it from one of the unwashed in the trenches who really doesn't want to find a job but live forever on the government dole: anyone telling you unemployment is getting better out there is either full of shit or has no idea what is really going on.

First, from The Blaze, Associated Press take on it:

Unemployment Drops to 9.4%

WASHINGTON (AP) — The nation’s unemployment rate dropped to 9.4 percent last month, its lowest level in 19 months. That was because more people found jobs, but also because some people gave up on their job searches.

The Labor Department says employers added 103,000 jobs in December, an improvement from November’s revised total of 71,000 but far below most analysts’ expectations.

Private employers added a net total of 113,000 jobs last month. Government shed 10,000.

The drop in the unemployment rate was partly influenced because the government no longer counts people as unemployed when they stop looking for work.

Through all of 2010, the nation added 1.1 million jobs, or an average of 94,000 jobs a month.

Economists expect hiring will ramp up this year, with some predicting double last year’s total of jobs or more. A tax cut package enacted last month should boost consumer and business spending.

More people were hired in previous months than the government first estimated. The economy added 210,000 jobs in October, above the previous figure of 172,000. November’s total was revised up from 39,000.

Fewer people said they were out of work last month. The number of unemployed fell by more than 500,000 to just under 14.5 million.

Still, the unemployment rate has topped 9 percent for 20 months, the longest such streak on record. And even with last year’s job gains, the unemployment rate fell only from 9.7 percent to 9.4 percent.

The economy needs to generate about 125,000 jobs a month just to keep up with population growth and prevent the unemployment rate from rising. More than double that amount is needed to reduce the rate.

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John Galt sees it differently and calls bullshit:

Weekly Unemployment Claims Continue to Deteriorate

By John Galt
January 6, 2011

This morning’s report only validated what many in the blogosphere have been saying:

It is not getting any better, but getting worse.

The news media however was so desperate to put a positive spin on this report, they resorted to quoting the four week moving average on a seasonal adjusted basis to convince the sheep that all is well and to reinforce that tomorrow’s numbers will be some of the greatest fiction ever produced since War of the Worlds in the 1930′s. The story today from MSDNC says it all from the Ministry of Truth:

Jobless claims rise, but positive trend intact

Let’s look at the report first though to get some idea how bad it really was:

For the non-seasonally adjusted number to increase by 52,000 on a 4 day business week with many state offices closed due to the blizzard not only distorted the seasonally adjusted number, but in fact is a warning that next week’s number is going to be one of rude surprises to hit the economy next week. Add in the fact that we have a full week of business to deal with this week and watch out for the economists to start scratching their head again, much like they did during the summer of 2008. The chart reflects the new trend MSDNC highlighted in their headline is NOT the one the economic gurus on Wall Street or D.C. want to see. Perhaps they should leave those towns on occasion and get some fresh air out here with the rest of us.

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So I ask you == if it takes 125,000 new jobs a month just to keep up with population growth, and we're only adding 103,000, how is that good news?

And, when Big Ben Says something like

At the pace of improvement projected by Fed officials, “it
could take four to five more years for the job market to normalize
fully,”

well, it's enough to depress a $190,000,000 lottery winner and have the rest of us through up our hands in despair.