Us Intelligence Failures Continue to be MANIFEST, STRATEGICALLY

China stealth fighter test highlights latest in string of U.S. intel failures

East-Asia-Intel.com, January 12, 2011

The head of the Office of Naval Intelligence disclosed last week yet another in a long line of intelligence failures on China’s military, this time revealing Beijing’s faster-than anticipated development of a stealth fighter.

The failure follows the U.S. intelligence community’s underestimation of more than a dozen Chinese military capabilities, ranging from new and quieter submarines to long-range cruise missiles and other asymmetric warfare capabilities.

Vice Adm. David Dorsett, director of Naval Intelligence, told a group of defense reporters last week that Internet photos and video showing a runway test of a new Chinese stealth fighter, dubbed the J-20, was not a surprise, but “the speed at which they are making progress, we underestimated.”

“Across a broad array of weapons systems, they are making progress,” the three-star admiral said.

“They’ve entered operational capability quicker than we frequently project,” Dorsett said. “We’ve been on the mark on an awful lot of our assessments, but there have been a handful of things we’ve underestimated.”

Pentagon spokesman Marine Col. Dave Lapan said recent photos of a new Chinese jet show “taxiing tests” on a prototype aircraft apparently photographed by people who saw it pass by.

“This is evidence that a fifth-generation fighter program is proceeding,” Lapan said. “However, progress appears to be uneven: Open-source reports show that China has been seeking jet engines for its fourth-generation fighter from Russia, indicating that they are still encountering some difficulties in working toward fifth-generation capabilities,” he said.

The faster development of the J-20 was first discussed by Chinese Gen. He Weirong, deputy commander of the Chinese air force last year. He predicted deployment as early as 2017.

The jet is expected to rival the U.S. F-22 superfighter whose production was frozen by Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates after 187 jets were built. In scrapping the F-22, Gates stated publicly that one reason for his decision was that the Chinese would not deploy a comparable jet until 2020, thus more F-35 jets would be built instead of the F-22.

Richard Fisher, a military analyst with the International Assessment and Strategy Center who was among the first to spot the J-20 photos months ago, said the aircraft is manufactured by the Chengdu Aircraft Co.

“Chengdu’s goal is to beat the F-22 and then build their own F-35 when the 18-ton thrust engine is ready. It is a full challenge to the U.S. strategy for air power,” Fisher said.

Fisher said the images of the jet reveal that China is advancing rapidly toward fielding a credible and competitive fifth-generation fighter. The photos show a large fighter with radar-evading stealth features, an advanced electronically scanned array (AESA) radar and “supercruise” the ability to fly at supersonic speed for long distances using less fuel, he said. “With refueling, this fighter can carry the fight out to Guam,” Fisher said.

As for Pentagon claims that the Chinese are having problems developing an advanced engine for the jet, Fisher said China is ground-testing a new, more powerful jet engine and, as a result, could deploy the new jet by 2017.

“If the United States wishes to remain an Asian power capable of deterring Chinese aggression, or preventing future generations from becoming victims of China’s dictates, it is essential that an improved version of the F-22 be put into crash development, as well as putting a sixth-generation fighter into formal development,” Fisher said.