Why progressives are always disappointed and angry

From Nicholas Kristof on Egypt:

The narrative about how Arab countries are inhospitable for democracy, how the Arab world is incompatible with modernity — that has been shattered by the courage and vision of so many Tunisians and Egyptians.

Now let’s halt a second.

There is NO DEMOCRACY IN EGYPT. There is a dictator displaced by a military dictatorship.

What the people in Tahrir Square and Tunisia achieved was to get rid of a pair of dictators who lasted a generation because they proved the generals of their own army were too afraid to order their troops to fire on their own people, or could not bring themselves to do so. That is a significant, signal, outstanding, laudable achievement. But it is NOT a democracy with individual human rights and ruled by human made laws which protect the individual equally with seeing the majority will enforced.

There is a chance there MIGHT be a democracy we abhor (a somewhat Islamic state with voting), as it endlessly exerts pressure on religious minorities SOMETIME THIS FALL.

Can they write a constitution and see it passed then?

Is that the job of the new legislature and president?

But the game isn’t over, and now a word of caution. I worry that senior generals may want to keep (with some changes) a Mubarak-style government without Mubarak. In essence the regime may have decided that Mubarak had become a liability and thrown him overboard — without any intention of instituting the kind of broad, meaningful democracy that the public wants.

I rate this at about 20-30% likelihood.

We’ll see as the election campaign ensues.

Remember when you hear the talking heads yacking about the Muslim Brotherhood never getting more than 20% of the vote - Mubarak ALLOWED only certain MB candidates to run, only LIMITED campaigns, in only SOME areas.

The Ikwhan, you can be sure is running on the ground the same kind of human services that their child HAMAS is running.

GOOD THINGS. Charity, health care, schools, civil action to aid people. They are in the gap between govt failure and death thru poverty in an unemployed state.

There’s just one thing about them.

And the fact that no one can BEGIN to guess what they will poll in an open and free election.

I bet it will be AT LEAST 40-50%. How many other parties will there be?

Got the picture?

The great National Intelligence Director idiot Clapper (that the Muslim Brotherhood is “largely secular” and has “eschewed violence” and doesn’t need to be speculated upon) was in my humble estimation, the sounding board for the future Obama admin position on just this outcome. I think they were utterly rocked and taken aback, or he’d have been putting out his resume no later than yesterday.

But don’t worry the calamity of this election IF IT GOES TO THAT END will somehow be laid at the doorstep of Bush (it’s every pres and congress’ fault since 1973). But more than anyone else, Obama with the lessons of HAMAS’ election in Gaza is responsible for providing for this outcome.

So while we are cheering, and the Egyptians are cheering, REMEMBER the outcome is not going to resemble Jefferson.

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press

The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated

Laws of men.

Supreme?

In Egypt?

Love to see it.

It would be the triumph of reason over all prejudice. Anyone betting on THAT happening?