Would Obama abandon Saudi Arabia to the 'winds of change'? 

Thanks to Will from The Other News:

(WSJ)  It is provocative, but not entirely inaccurate, to suggest that U.S. foreign policy these past few months has been sufficiently erratic to make America's allies reconsider the degree to which we can be trusted—and our adversaries re-evaluate the degree to which we must be feared.The canary in the coal mine on such matters is Israel. None of America's allies is more sensitive to even the most subtle changes in the international environment, or more conscious of the slightest hint of diminished support from Washington.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been so concerned that a member of his fractious coalition might give vent to some damaging public observation on this issue that he has imposed a strict "nobody talks on the subject but me" rule. That the gag has been even partially effective, given the wide-open nature of the Israeli political process, is astonishing. It is also a measure of how worried the Israelis are. 

The Israeli government is so concerned that America's adversaries may miscalculate U.S. intentions that it is privately urging Washington to make it clear that the U.S. would intervene in Saudi Arabia should the survival of that government be threatened. That is, after all, what President George H.W. Bush did more than 20 years ago when Saddam Hussein ordered Iraqi forces into Kuwait and moved forces in the direction of Saudi Arabia. "This," President Bush said on more than one occasion, "will not stand." And it didn't. 

Just as enemies such as Iran need to be cautioned, America's traditional allies need to be reassured. That's why Israeli officials are recommending a Marshall Plan for Egypt. The overthrow of Hosni Mubarak may have been no loss in the annals of democracy, but under Mr. Mubarak Egypt was a pillar of stability and a reliable if not always warm partner for Israel. 

Egypt's political future at this time is uncertain enough; the Israelis believe it is essential to prevent its economic collapse. The U.S. has poured billions of dollars into Egypt since Anwar Sadat made peace with Israel, and senior Israeli officials believe the economic spigot should remain wide open. 

Little, if anything, that has happened during the past few months has improved Israel's standing in the region. One of the most telling blows to Israel's security has gone all but unnoticed in the swirl of uprisings. For years, the most stable relationship that Israel enjoyed with any Muslim nation was with Turkey. Even under the leadership of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has specialized in publicly baiting the Israelis, the relationship between the two countries' intelligence agencies remained strictly professional. "That," a high-ranking Israeli official told me, "is no longer the case." 

The outlook from Jerusalem these days is not encouraging. Iranian influence is growing throughout the Persian Gulf and beyond. Egypt's commitment to its peace treaty with Israel is uncertain. Syria could explode into total chaos at any moment. Jordan's stability is in question. Pakistan, a Muslim country with more than a 100 nuclear warheads, is confronting an uncertain future—made all the more unpredictable by the commencement of a U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan this summer. 

Whether any U.S. troops will remain in Iraq after the end of this year remains an open question. America is war-weary and facing a crushing deficit.The only glimmer of good news for the Israelis may be that, when it comes to reliable allies in the region, Washington's list also keeps getting shorter. 

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