How Crimea spools out of control

Right now we have a Crimean ‘referendum’ in  about week in which 100% of voters have the following choice on their ballot:

1. Join Russia NOW
2. Declare independence, join Russia then

Robert Gates, someone who has served both parties and now is out of politics for himself, said yesterday, FORGET CRIMEA, Russia will not let it go.

But we also have a UKR where Putin has both warned about mistreatment of Russians there, and is committing provocative acts to generate that result AND creating the result via FSB (KGB), including Russian invented neo nazis. Therefore he is plowing the ground, and seeding the ground for intervention and control CERTAINLY of at least the eastern part of UKR.

This week the new president of Ukraine is coming to Washington.

Suppose he formally asks for help from the west?

• If we say YES then we can easily see what happens if the Russians roll into Donestk, close to them and far from us. Poland, a NATO nation, shares a border with UKR could have NATO troops there pretty quickly. Poland has no love lost for Russians. From there, it’s pretty obvious.
• But if we say no, we signal Putin to just go ahead. NOW. Today, and the whole world will understand what we just did.

Of course, this is just how wars start either way.

Obama has failed to define a line anyone believes, including me. If I, an American citizen believe there is no line discernible, and no line Obama will actually defend, what does Putin think?

Worse still, in this particular application, is there a difference between that foreign policy and Rand Paul’s? I promise you , Paul just says no, but expects everyone to understand not to screw with us. We can see, however, that THAT world view is as Disneyland as is Obama’s.

We cannot be alone in this world. I wish we could, but we are not there. We need SOME friends, and those friends have to be defended. They have to go to sleep at night KNOWING they are defended or they will start to think about other arrangements so that it is easier for them to go to sleep at night. That is the reality of human nature, and if I can steal the great warrior’s phrasing:

ALL ATTEMPTS TO GET AROUND HUMAN NATURE WILL END IN DISASTER AND HUMILIATION

Which brings us back to Obama’s GALACTIC failure series in foreign policy (beginning with the Chicago olympics). His failure to lock his world view into the objective reality of the world of human nature, and our enemies has led him to a string of ideologically based catastrophes which are continental in result.

Japan complains about our fortitude ALOUD. Australia talks openly about realigning with China, where their ‘future’ might be (add in NZ if that’s Oz). Israel rebukes us IN the Oval office. We just LEAVE nations in chaos (Iraq and apparently Afghanistan). We are unprepared for the moves of other nations not concerned with either soft power or the opinion of others, and whose leaders don’t CARE if their market values jump around, or some oligarchs can’t travel to Scottsdale. We do not live up to our own criteria of when we must act.

Now, we had better prevent the PM of UKR from asking for help. But what would he have to lose by making a public plea? It’s his nation which is about to be ‘Sudetened’. The first step is faits accomplis.

We are now at the stage of several ultimatums regarding UKR forces in Crimea. We are now in the warning stages of mistreatment of Russian speaker in UKR even as they commit provocative acts designed to create the conditions for invasion.

Mistakes that lead to war. We have made our share. If Obama’s REAL LINE is invasion of the UKR under these circumstances when UKR asks for NATO help, I don’t think Putin will believe him.

UPDATE:

Ukraine seeks US help as Putin talks tough on Crimea