Antidote to Epa
Professor Norpoth: Trump Has 87% of Winning November Election
Professor Norpoth is a political science professor at Long Island’s Stoney Brook University.
His model has been correct since 1996 on predicting the popular vote. This 2016 forecast rests on a model that tracks cyclical movements in American presidential elections.
It goes back to 1828, when popular voting became widespread and the two-party system took hold.
Over nearly two centuries, American presidential elections have exhibited a distinct cycle.
This is not the pattern associated with partisan realignments that may last 30 years or so, but a shorter cycle that relates to party control of the White House.
Norproth made the prediction in March and says he still stands by his election prediction.