Sunday, April 09, 2006

Will U.S. Use Nukes On Iran?

From The London Telegraph comes the news that Seymour Hersh is saying Bush is planning to use nukes on Iran:


The Bush administration is planning to use nuclear weapons against Iran, to prevent it acquiring its own atomic warheads, claims an investigative writer with high-level Pentagon and intelligence contacts.

President George W Bush is said to be so alarmed by the threat of Iran's hard-line leader, Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, that privately he refers to him as "the new Hitler", says Seymour Hersh, who broke the story of the Abu Ghraib Iraqi prisoner abuse scandal.

Some US military chiefs have unsuccessfully urged the White House to drop the nuclear option from its war plans, Hersh writes in The New Yorker magazine. The conviction that Mr Ahmedinejad would attack Israel or US forces in the Middle East, if Iran obtains atomic weapons, is what drives American planning for the destruction of Teheran's nuclear programme.

Hersh claims that one of the plans, presented to the White House by the Pentagon, entails the use of a bunker-buster tactical nuclear weapon, such as the B61-11, against underground nuclear sites. One alleged target is Iran's main centrifuge plant, at Natanz, 200 miles south of Teheran.

Although Iran claims that its nuclear programme is peaceful, US and European intelligence agencies are certain that Teheran is trying to develop atomic weapons. In contrast to the run-up to the Iraq invasion, there are no disagreements within Western intelligence about Iran's plans.

This newspaper disclosed recently that senior Pentagon strategists are updating plans to strike Iran's nuclear sites with long-distance B2 bombers and submarine-launched missiles. And last week, the Sunday Telegraph reported a secret meeting at the Ministry of Defence where military chiefs and officials from Downing Street and the Foreign Office discussed the consequences of an American-led attack on Iran, and Britain's role in any such action.

The military option is opposed by London and other European capitals. But there are growing fears in No 10 and the Foreign Office that the British-led push for a diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear stand-off, will be swept aside by hawks in Washington. Hersh says that within the Bush administration, there are concerns that even a pummelling by conventional strikes, may not sufficiently damage Iran's buried nuclear plants.

Iran has been developing a series of bunkers and facilities to provide hidden command centres for its leaders and to protect its nuclear infrastructure. The lack of reliable intelligence about these subterranean facilities, is fuelling pressure for tactical nuclear weapons to be included in the strike plans as the only guaranteed means to destroy all the sites simultaneously.

The attention given to the nuclear option has created serious misgivings among the joint chiefs of staff, and some officers have talked about resigning, Hersh has been told. The military chiefs sought to remove the nuclear option from the evolving war plans for Iran, without success, a former senior intelligence officer said.

The Pentagon consultant on the war on terror confirmed that some in the administration were looking seriously at this option, which he linked to a resurgence of interest in tactical nuclear weapons among defence department political appointees.

The election of Mr Ahmedinejad last year, has hardened attitudes within the Bush Administration. The Iranian president has said that Israel should be "wiped off the map". He has drafted in former fellow Revolutionary Guards commanders to run the nuclear programme, in further signs that he is preparing to back his threats with action.

Mr Bush and others in the White House view him as a potential Adolf Hitler, a former senior intelligence official told Hersh. "That's the name they're using. They say, 'Will Iran get a strategic weapon and threaten another world war?' "

Despite America's public commitment to diplomacy, there is a growing belief in Washington that the only solution to the crisis is regime change. A senior Pentagon consultant said that Mr Bush believes that he must do "what no Democrat or Republican, if elected in the future, would have the courage to do," and "that saving Iran is going to be his legacy".


So, what do you guys say? Is this true, or is Hersh trying to attack the President?

16 comments:

Epaminondas said...

True. I think that Hersch has what HE WAS TOLD correctly.
The question is, was the leak intentional for obvious reasons?

But "saving Iran"? Forget it.

Here's the thing, this HAS to be taken absolutely seriously, nomatter what.
Let's face it, with the example of Osirak in the rearview mirror making sure sons of bitches don't get nuclear weapons, and with the EXACT reason that Harry Truman and FDR had, with this leak, Ahmadinejad has to wonder....

Would this nation be better off waiting for more thousands dead? This should be debated. (I just cam over t post this exact story, pasto)

Always On Watch said...

I question that Hersch is a reliable source. Nevertheless, my intuition tells me that GWB is considering using nukes.

Yesterday, Rumsfeld publicly stated that diplomatic channels are, rightly, what the admin is pursuing first. But I seem to recall having heard that kind of statement from Rummy prior to going into Iraq.

Always On Watch said...

Also (I clicked publish instead of preview), if GWB has solid intelligence that Iran already has one nuke (I just posted some info on that here at IBA), then he will go in with nukes, I think. I've always seen GWB as the kind of President who would use nukes if he had to. But I've misassessed him before.

Pastorius said...

Epa,
To my shock, when I told my wife bout this story, and voiced my concern that we should not use nukes on Iran, her response was, "But, isn't it the same thing as the Cuban Missile Crisis? We were ready to use nukes then?"

Since when is my wife more hardcore than me?

Her point is very good. And, i had never thought of it this way. However, the difference between the two situations is that

1) we have time with Iran and could, presumably, attack with conventional weapons, and if that didn't work THEN hit them with nukes

2) Ahmadinejad is more dangerous than the Cuban situation all those years ago, because he believes it is his mission to nuke other nations. The Cuban situation was tactical, although, of course, we could not have known that at the time.

Anyway, all that to say, I agree with you Epa. My biggest fear is that we won't attack Iran. If we don't, then I believe this world is doomed to tens of millions dead.

Pastorius said...

AOW,
I think the evidence coming out of Iran in the past week would seem to indicate that Iran is in the bluffing mode. I don't think they have any nukes yet. If they did, they wouldn't be bragging about stealth flying boats.

Previous to their stupid bragadocio festival, I was convinced they had aquired nukes on the black market and were ready to use them.

Epaminondas said...

Truman and FDR built and used nukes because it would save american lives.

These yutzes have been saying since 1979 that we are the whispering satan or material arrogance inthis world, and now we have the twerps closest advisors telling him we are risk averse at the exact moment that things are getting sticky in Iraq.

If we are going to DO IT at all, then DO IT. I have always believed you can't kill people gently, and therefore if we are to use weapons for a particular purpose, our use should only be limimted by our ability to bring them to bear on the target.

Just as in July 1945, when there were admirals and cabinet officers threatenting to resign over use of this weapon, why on earth would it be any different today.

This is the KKK in charge of a nation.
And we,... are NOT Hamlet.

This story, I believe, is TRUE. ANd Teheran had better be worried, but I bet you anything, they call it bluster and bluff by the time we wake up tmw.

Pastorius said...

Epa,
i think you are correct. I believe the Iranians actually want us to attack them.

Although, I can't figure out why.

Doctorboogaloo said...

I don't believe Hersch is being used as a patsy. I think his sources are scared shitless. They know Bush is nuts; he's horny for rapture and drooling over the apocalypse. So is the dickwad running things in sunny Persia.

This is BUSH, folks. It's the Middle East. And he has spoken to God.

Stock up on duct tape and saltines.

Oscar in Kansas said...

Yes the Iranians would love for us to attack them. It would unite the nation and help the mullahs crush internal dissent. Any unproked US attack using atomic weapons would make Iran the victim. The whole world would side with them. The anti-Americanism of recent years would look mild. More importantly attacking Iran with nukes plays right into the Shi'a sense of mysticla martyrdom, suffering for the sake of god.

But about this story - Hersh is a sloppy, sensationalist who often slips into writing fiction. I'm sure the military has plans for using tactical nukes against Iranian facilities. But the military has lots of plans. Could Hersh be exaggerating this to serve his anti-Bush agenda? Could Hersh be using this to whip up the left intelligencia into even greater anti-Bush hysteria? Um... yeah.

Oscar in Kansas said...

The Times (UK) has a more realistic story on this:

"Defence analysts believe the most likely weapon is Big Blu, a 30,000lb bunker-buster bomb that will be ready for use towards the end of 2007."

But here are the problems with attacking Iran:

"Senior Pentagon planners recently advised the White House that they did not yet have accurate intelligence on the whereabouts of all Iran’s nuclear enrichment sites and several were buried under granite. At present it could hope to set back the Iranians’ nuclear programme by only two years.

"American officials remain divided about the wisdom of a military strike. A senior White House source said opinion was in a “state of flux” and added: “We can bomb the sites, but what then?” It was important to plan for an escalation of the conflict, the source said.""

Epaminondas said...

1) The galactic twerp of Iran IS a chiliast

2) Sorry Dr booger but GWB isn't

3) All of Iran's leaders right from Khomeini thru today have said the same thing..we are the great satan, Israel is the little satan. MEMRI is replete with quotes from 1998 (the year they began) about burning ISrael for uterly racsit reasons, and destroying the 'world of arrogance', i.e. America ..the font of material arrogance on earth

4) After 9/11 it would be CRIMINALLY irresponsible not to take them seriously, and THEY KNOW IT, they are betting we are risk averse..THE AMERICAN PEOPLE, not the leaders

5) What did everyone think that 700 ton explosion test in nevada was really about?

6) Do we want as a nation to allow Iran the freedom to attack our civilians as a purposeful strategic and tactical target so that history is on our side, if we attack their sites with conventional means? What would that be worth? 3,000? 5,000? 50,000 dead? Where is the preventive/preemptive line?

7) Are we PREPARED for what comes next here? What comes next THERE is more of the same from the air.

8) Have changes been made in our intelleigence to allow us to undertake this? This is where I am not confident. AT ALL.

Pasto- here's your answer
In the Judeo Christian tradition martyrs are those who give up their lives, but except for Sampson, there is no tradition of killing yourself for the express purpose of killing innocents as a purpose, a target. Otherwise the martyrs are those who die for their beliefs shredded by arrows and burned alive, alone. The same is NOT true on the other side. Since Ibn Tamiyya and Hussayn at Karbala an entire philosophical basis for these actions has been developed, as we see clearly now with Qaradawi explicitly blessing such murders and suicides. Today they believe this is an unaswerable weapon of the ummah.

Iran is embarked on this mission as a nation, lead by ultra orthodox shias. It's win - win. If we are risk averse they get the nuke and wipe a certain nation from the map at little cost, and in doing so shatter the west's real image and self image for ALL to see and judge their future courses by, terrorize the entire middle east, and implicitly blackmail the world. If we attack them, they do thier part to bring on armageddon thru a real war and therefore all die bringin on the mahdi even if the seminal morons who bring this about are not around to see that nothing happens except a sizable portion of the middle east being uninhabitable for the forseeable future.

This reccomends that we need to be ready.
If we attack their sites, we had better be ready to take out the entire structure of the mullahs, and the pasdaran.
We had better be ready to protect our physical structure and our leaders, including all of congress.
This cannot be regarded as farting around with 40-50 cruise missiles and some Jdams from 2 B-2's.
That's why I BELIEVE the story.
We have got to KILL THEM. The sites the mullahs, the lot. If we act, it has to be all the way.
The only other route is to take Israel into NATO, and then be prepared to absorb the first hit, and then kill 30,000,000 people.

Which is the least worst choice?
ANyone want to be prez?

Always On Watch said...

Seen today's WaPo? Front page, above the fold: "U.S. Is Studying Military Strike Options on Iran." I haven't read the article yet.

Search for the article at
www.washingtonpost.com

Epaminondas said...

looking now

Epaminondas said...

"The targeteers honestly keep coming back and saying it will require nuclear penetrator munitions to take out those tunnels," said Kenneth M. Pollack, a former CIA analyst. "Could we do it with conventional munitions? Possibly. But it's going to be very difficult to do."
......................................

We need a big debate in the USA.
PUBLIC

Pastorius said...

Epa,
What you say makes absolute sense. You think we have to kill the leadership as well as the weapons. Well, maybe, that is the conclusion Bush has also drawn.

citizen_us said...

And all one hears from the masses of cult-born muslims; nothing.

When iran nukes israel, after several years of fucking pointless "diplomatic" efforts, will there be any muslims stepping forward to condemn this action? I dont friggin think so.

Israel will be gone, muslims will overrun every good and decent thing, in every country.

It IS coming down to the U.S. versus the Crazies. Screw that.

It would almost be worth a city being blown to shit, just so we can finally take care of the mindless bastards.

In a fight, US vs islam, I am voting for US.