Wednesday, January 03, 2007

Is A Nuclear Weapons Attack Against Britain Imminent?

I believe it is highly possible that terrorists, in Britain, are in possession of a nuclear bomb and are getting ready to use it. Here's why:

Back on Friday, December 15, 2006, I wrote a post in which I speculated that the death of former Soviet-spy Alexander Litvinenko was not a murder, but was instead, the result of his smuggling of Polonium 210 for use in a nuclear attack against the UK:


Nuclear weapons are, in some sense, unstable; they are said to decay over time, and become ineffective, if not properly maintained.

Now, I would imagine that not all the parts of a nuclear weapon decay at the same rate. For instance, we can assume the shell - which is probably made of metal or plastic - does not decay rapidly. So, it is something within the bomb which decays.

Of course, heavy metals themselves are unstable and emit radiation, so it could be that more uranium or plutonium needs to be added to the core periodically. But, I don't have enough information to know if this is the case.

Here's what I do know, from what I have read about the Litvinenko case. Polonium 210 is the trigger that starts the chain reaction within the uranium or plutonium core in a nuclear weapon. In other words, you have a core of plutonium or uranium and you need a trigger which is packed around the core, which itself explodes with enough force to compress the plutonium to the point that a chain reaction will ensue.

Could it be that Polonium 210 is the unstable element of a nuclear weapon which needs maintanence? Could it be that our Muslim friend Litvinenko was smuggling polonium into Britain so that they could bring an already existing nuclear device back into working form?


Now, when I wrote that post, I received some negative comments about my seemingly wild flight of fancy. Turns out that I am, more than likely, correct in my speculation. From Terrorism expert, Paul Williams (written December 6, 2006) whom I will be interviewing on my radio show this coming week:


The death of Alexander Litvinenko by radiological poisoning points to the possibility that the former Soviet spy may have been involved with Islamic terrorists in the preparation of tactical nuclear weapons for use in the jihad against the United States and its NATO allies.

Litvenenko, a former KGB agent, died in London on November 23 after ingesting a microscopic amount of polonium-210. In a deathbed statement, Litvinenko blamed Russian President Vladimir Putin for the poisoning - - an accusation which the Kremlin has vehemently denied.

Litvinenko, who was born an orthodox Christian, was a convert to Islam with close ties to the Chechen rebels. His last words consisted of his desire to be buried “according to Muslim tradition.”


In recent years, considerable attention has been paid to suitcase nukes that were developed by U.S. and Soviet forces during the Cold War. Reliable sources, including Hans Blix of the United Nation, have confirmed that bin Laden purchased several of these devises from the Chechen rebels in 1996.

According to Sharif al-Masri and other al Qaeda operatives who have been taken into custody, several of these weapons have been forward deployed to the United States in preparation for al Qaeda’s next attack on American soil.

This brings us to the mysterious case of Litvinenko. The neutron source or “triggers” of the suitcase nukes are composed of beryllium-9 and polonium-210. When these two elements are combined, the alpha particle is absorbed by the nucleus of the beryllium causing it to decay by emitting a neutron. Such “triggers” were a feature of early nuclear weapons in the U.S. and Soviet stockpiles.

Polonium-210 has a half-life of 138 days, necessitating the replacement of the triggers every six months. (Read the rest.)


To add to your paranoia, I will also point out that several days ago it was revealed that British security forces are buying large amounts of special body bags, and radiation suits in preparation for what they termed a "dirty bomb attack."

But, the thing about "dirty bombs", or, in other words, radiological bombs is that as awful as they sound, they are simply a regular bomb with radiological material wrapped around the explosion device. So, in other words, the blast area of a radiological bomb would be no bigger than that of a regular bomb, which, in turn means that it is highly unlikely that any more people would die from a radiolical bomb than would from a conventional non-nuclear bomb.

In fact, if one compares them to Palestinian bombs which uses nails as shrapnel, it is possible that people would simply die a slower death after getting hit with the radiological material, than they would having gotten hit with nails.

A radiological, or "dirty bomb" would likely only cause a few hundred deaths, so why is Britain preparing for many thousands?

Now, to heap even more paranoia on you, please understand that the past few weeks, some rather alarming warnings have been coming out of the various parts of Britain's intelligence community. For instance, London's Chief of Police, Ian Blair recently was quoted saying:


‘It is a far graver threat in terms of civilians than either the Cold War or the Second World War,’ he said. ‘It’s a much graver threat than that posed by Irish Republican terrorism.’


Additionally, UK police have professed to being alarmed by the high level of terrorist chatter revealed in intelligence reports:


ABC News has learned that al Qaeda operatives in the greater London area are being encouraged to “strike during the Christian holidays,” according to intelligence and law enforcement sources…

ABC News sources in North America and the U.K. say that British authorities are constantly on the run, breaking up plots on a near weekly basis that have reached the pre-operational phase.Sources in Britain add that at least one “pivotal…al Qaeda U.K.” operative has been detained during the past two weeks, and others may — at least temporarily — be in custody.


Specifically, they are searching for three "English brothers" trained at Al Qaeda camps in Pakistan:


Police are trying to trace a gang of British Muslims who are thought to have returned to plot terror attacks in Britain after being trained abroad for more than a year by al-Qaeda, Nine Britons, all said to be in their twenties, were among a group of 12 Western recruits groomed by al-Qaeda at a secret camp near the Afghan border to set up new terror cells in London and other Western capitals.

Police do not know the real identities of this gang, who are known as the “English brothers” because of their shared language. As well as nine Britons, they include two Norwegians and an Australian who were smuggled into the Waziristan tribal region in Pakistan in October 2005.They are believed to have been under the command of an al-Qaeda veteran suspected of training some of the Britons accused of the alleged plot to blow up passenger planes flying to the US from Heathrow airport in the summer. ...

Intelligence sources in Pakistan said that the men are reported to have joined Taleban and al-Qaeda fighters in Afghanistan in attacks on Nato troops. The sources told The Times that the “brothers” were given religious indocrination as well as lessons on how to assemble suicide bomb vests and improvised explosive devices.

The sources are reported to have been escorted to the al-Qaeda camp by Adam Gadahn, a Californian indicted by the US authorities as an al-Qaeda terrorist, who introduced the “brothers” to their tutors.


When police release such specific information about potential suspects, we can assume it means they have lost control of the investigation and are, instead, attempting to scare the suspects into not acting by appearing to be within striking distance. Simply put, they would not release the information, if they knew where the "English brothers were, both physically and in terms of their ongoing terror plot.

Here are some questions to ponder: What date did Litvinenko bring that Polonium into Britain? And, when is 138 days after that?

I would say it looks like the UK is in a heap of trouble.

20 comments:

admin said...

Scary stuff...

I would say that the recent information divulged by the British Intelligence Services is down right scary. However, the holidays are over and I would venture to guess Britain is sleeping again...

Pastorius said...

Yep, I said that on an LGF thread last week. I said I thought it was dangerous that they were putting out such severe warnings because they are going to give people more reason to believe the warnings are fake.

Anonymous said...

Pastorius

I believe the effects of a dirty bomb are far worse that you think. From http://www.jplabs.com/html/dirty_bomb.HTM

"Although the dispersal of radioactive material and radiation from the bomb will not be effective in killing people, it could cause a huge public response and disrupt the economy and living conditions in the area contaminated. If such a dirty bomb is exploded at the tip of Manhattan, there will be massive panic and disruption. Contamination will depend upon on the size of the explosive, amount and type of radioactive material and weather conditions. Radioactive dust will settle on people, buildings, and roads. Winds and air circulation systems in buildings will spread the radioactive dust even more. Rain will wash the radioactivity into soil, sewer systems and rivers."

"EPA regulations require that contaminated areas should be cleaned if the risk is one death in 10,000 people. Because decontaminating certain areas might not be financially or technically possible, we might have to demolish or abandon several square miles of a city. We know from first hand experience that terrorists can destroy our buildings. With a dirty bomb, they could they force us to do it to ourselves on a much grander scale."

"A dirty bomb could result in potentially trillions of dollars of losses if it is detonated in New York City, according to testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in March 6, 2002 on the threat of radiological attack by terrorist groups, by Henry Kelly, President of Federation of American Scientists (http://fas.org/ssp/docs/030602-kellytestimony.htm). Millions of people will leave the affected area in a state of panic, leading to potentially deadly accidents. It would be a logistical nightmare to relocate so many people in such a short time."

Anonymous said...

Given the concern about polonium-210, are they talking about "dirty bombs", which are conventional explosives wrapped in radioactive material, or actual suitcase/backpack nukes? As I understand it, the main damage from a "dirty bomb" aside from that caused by the explosion itself is panic over "radiation" being released into the air. But suitcase nukes are true tactical nuclear weapons between 1 and 5 kilotons and can damage or destroy everything within a half-mile radius, and I gather the danger from the radiation release is much more serious. Which one are we talking about here?

If Al Qaeda is really plotting an "American Hiroshima" using "dirty bombs" they must be counting very heavily on the psychological effect. But several tactical nukes released simultaneously against sensitive targets (Wall St., DC, ports, etc.) would be a major economic and political blow on top of everything else.

BTW, the CDC site has some detailed information on how to act in the event of a radiological attack. Shades of my childhood. It is useful information, though. Most of us are not sitting atop potential ground zeros, though I'm sure many of us are near enough to make it a good idea to know how to minimize blast effects and get oneself decontaminated ASAP.

Pastorius said...

The first paragraph there supports what I said 100%.

The second and third paragraph discuss the problems we would cause ourselves with as the result of our overly litigious society.

The second and third paragraphs do not predict massive amounts of casualties. The first pargraph starts out pointing out that that would not happen.

Therefore, what I said is correct.

I didn't say it wouldn't cost us money. I said it wouldn't kill that many people.

Britain is ordering up 12,000 body bags. That's a number much more in line with how many deaths one might expect were a suitcase nuke to explode in London.

Pastorius said...

RevereRidesAgain,

Either my writing isn't clear, or your reading of the post wasn't very clear.

What I was trying to say is that the evidence points to that Britain is preparing not for a Dirty Bomb attack, but instead for an attack by a real nuclear weapon, most likely a "suitcase" nuke.

And, as far as the American Hiroshima scenario is concerned, Dr. Williams says Al Qaeda has already smuggled a series of suitcase nukes into the US.

Anonymous said...

That's what it sounds like, I just wanted to make sure. I don't dispute that the "dirty bomb" scenario is trouble, but the suitcase nukes are REAL trouble. If a dirty bomb explodes in the middle of Wall Street, there will be the destruction, disruption and panic described above. (Apart from the radiation issue, that was the case on 9/11 -- the NYSE is only 3 blocks away, but was up and running again in about a week.)However, if a 1 kiloton suitcase nuke goes off outside the NYSE, "Wall Street" will be gone. Period.

I notice the UK kept trying to cover up the fact that the body bags were for victims of "dirty bombs". Can I be forgiven for suspecting that the "dirty bomb" bag designation is cover for something worse?

I understand the suitcase nukes are supposedly hidden in mosques. Are those subject to search (in UK and here) or not?

Pastorius said...

RRA,
Absolutely. That was my point. A dirty bomb attack would likely only result in a few hundred deaths, but they are preparing for far more.

It is clear to me they are preparing for a nuclear bomb attack in Britain. They have intelligence which tells them there is a nuke in Britain now.

Anonymous said...

I live in the UK and had only paid peripheral attention to the Litvinenko case until I read your article tonight. Frankly your hypothesis makes more sense than most of the other hypotheses I'd read. Why would you set out to poison someone with Polonium in the first place? Why have the UK government been going on and on about an imminent attack over the Christmas period (to be honest, the current Labour government is so compromised in the public mind that virtually everything they say is treated with great scepticism anyway)? The Litvinenko case is scarcely out of the news, even today its on the BBC website frontpage.

I wonder whether the seemingly intense efforts of the UK police to follow-up traces of polonium here there and everywhere might be driven not so much by a desire to solve a murder investigation rather than a frantic need to find a nuclear trigger? And if you worked for the police and that was your line of thinking you probably would order 12,000 nuclear protection suits whilst at the same time not letting on to the public what you were really thinking?

I probably won't sleep tonight. Thanks for that!

By the way - is it definite that Litvinenko had actually converted to Islam?

Anonymous said...

Alexander Litvinenko left a trail of polonium contamination wherever he went. This seems to suggest he was contaminated and probably breathed the polonium in as dust or vapor rather than ingested it as poisoned food or drink.

Now one of the properties of polonium is that because it is an intense alpha emitter, it also generates large quantities of heat. Unless it is kept cool it will warm up sufficiently to vaporize and disperse itself before settling in the immediate area.

Was Litvinenko acting as a courier for this nuclear trigger but unaware of the need to keep it cool at all times? Or did he simply run out of ice-cubes due to unexpected delays in his journey?

Pastorius said...

Jon,
No, there is some contention, as I understand it, over whether or not Litvinenko really converted to Islam. However, an Imam did preside over his funeral, but they would not conduct his funeral in a Mosque.

You're right that there is something strange about the way they have pursued the case. The thing that got me to start paying attention was the fact that the radiation was present everywhere since it had left Russia. It was at the British Embassy in Russia. It was on the plane to Britain. It was in Litvinenko's apartment. It was at several places he visited, etc.

In other words it was spilling from the time it left Russia. That does not seem to be the way it would have worked if this were aerosolized weapon developed by Putin's agents.

It seems to me they must have brought the Polonium over in a faulty cannister or something.

Anonymous said...

Really, when you think of it, the notion that someone would go to the trouble of assassinating someone using polonium-210, consequently leaving a trail of the stuff all over Europe when they could have just whacked him over the head is just bizarre. And you don't order 12,000 nuke suits just to solve a murder mystery unless you expect to find a lot more of the stuff.

I read that he converted to Islam on his deathbed and was given a Muslim funeral. It does seem to be more than rumor.

Is there a direct connection between the UK case and the US?

Anonymous said...

More polonium contamination comes to light:

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/03012007/325/test-positive-polonium.html

For this to happen, Litvinenko must have been wandering around for several days with a source of over-heating vaporizing Polonium in his pockets or hand-luggage.
From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polonium....

Polonium-210 is an alpha emitter that has a half-life of 138.376 days; it decays directly to its daughter isotope 206Pb. A milligram of 210Po emits as many alpha particles per second as 5 grams of 226Ra. A few curies (1 curie equals 37 gigabecquerels) of 210Po emit a blue glow which is caused by excitation of surrounding air. A single gram of 210Po generates 140 watts of power. Because it emits many alpha particles, which are stopped within a very short distance in dense media and release their energy, 210Po has been used as a lightweight heat source to power thermoelectric cells in artificial satellites; ....

Polonium ... has the ability to become airborne with ease: if a sample is heated in air to 55°C, 50% of it is vaporized in 45 hours, even though the melting point of polonium is 254°C, and its boiling point is 962°C. More than one hypothesis exists for how polonium does this; one suggestion is that small clusters of polonium atoms are spalled off by the alpha decay.

.... The main hazard is its intense radioactivity (as an alpha emitter), which makes it very difficult to handle safely - one gram of Po will self-heat to a temperature of around 500°C...."


It may well be that the UK has been deprived of a spectacular Christmas Cracker from its loyal multiculti Muslim community only by the incompetence of the courier. However the bomb(s) still remain to be activated by the application of the polonium/beryllium trigger. The muslims may not be worried about the radiation killing them, but if the sacred polonium boils away due to their incompetence and they die without killing any kaffirs, then Allah will not be too pleased with them and they won't get their 72 virgins. Presumably the next courier will have learned from Litvinenko's incompetence.

Dinah Lord said...

Gulp.

Vicki Claudio said...

According to this article from Wikipedia,Litveinenko became ill on Nov. 1. The planes that tested positive for polonium exposure left Moscow on Oct. 25, Oct. 28, Oct. 31, and Nov. 3. So that means we have 70 days elapsed since the earliest possible date, which means we have 68 more days before the 138-day deadline, which brings us to March 12, which is just before the March 20 Iranian New Year, when Ahmadinejad has promised to be fully nuclear.

Pastorius said...

Vicki,
Thanks for that.

Interesting. Well, I don't think it is a foregone conclusion that Litvinenko's "incompetence" has destroyed all of the Polonium.

I think it is possible they still have enough.

You know what is horrible to think of is how, apparently, easy it was for him to get around (on planes and through major cities) with this Polonium.

We really ought to be investing in radiation detectors, rather than all these fucking public video cameras.

Pastorius said...

That's a good point Chuck the Lucky. On the other hand, we know that if my conjecture is true, then these guys will try to use it within about four and a half months.

Anonymous said...

just fyi to some people, there's no 138 day "deadline", that misinterprets what half-life means. a 138 day half-life just means that half of the original amount will be decayed in 138 days - which also means, half will still be there. then half of *that* will be gone in *another* 138 days (leaving 1/4 of original amount). and so on. now I don't know "how much" of the original amount would be necessary to still exist to act as a 'trigger' for a suitcase nuke (or the 'dirty' part of a 'dirty bomb') or whatever the theory here is. if we knew that we could, in principle work out *some* deadline. but 138 days is unlikely to be a deadline in any real sense.

Pastorius said...

Anonymous,

Good point, and honestly, I knew that. However, I was trying to work out the post without too much extraneous detail. It is a very complex post, and people have misunderstood it as is.

But, you are certainly correct.

In my opinion, it is doubtful anyone would purchase Polonium and then allow it to decay for more than 2- 3 months, if they had control over the situation.

Pastorius said...

Rexie,
Thanks for the info. Didn't know that.