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Saturday, December 15, 2007

How to win friends and influence people, courtesy of the US Intelligence Community


Gulf intelligence sees NIE as signaling either U.S. betrayal or ignorance

The new National Intelligence Estimate has not infuriated anybody more than the Saudis and Kuwaitis.

Funny I thought the Israelis looked pretty pissed off.

The NIE assertion that Iran has halted its quest for nuclear weapons in 2003 has struck the Gulf Cooperation Council states as more than ridiculous. The U.S. allies regard the document as a sea change in the U.S. commitment to the region.

Oh, so we didn't kiss off Israel in order to make friends with the salafis. THEN WHO DID WE KISS OFF ISRAEL FOR?

Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, 2nd left, is greeted by his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, 2nd right, in Moscow on Dec. 13. AFP/Maxim Marmur
Over the last week, the American intelligence community has been termed "stupid" to unprintable adjectives by Saudi intelligence officials.


At best, Saudi intelligence believes that the CIA has fallen hook, line and sinker for an Iranian disinformation campaign. At worst, the Saudis believe the Bush administration has abandoned them.

The Saudis don't claim to be better than the Americans in intelligence. But here is what they do know: For years, Teheran has studied U.S. intelligence and determined that its weakness was its over-reliance on electronic surveillance and paucity of human intelligence. The Saudis also knew that Iran, through help from North Korea and China, became masters of disinformation — or the idea of planting false information that would be embraced by an enemy intelligence service.

The conclusion of the Saudis is that the CIA fell for an Iranian disinformation campaign that Teheran had long ago stopped the development of nuclear weapons. But even so, the Saudis have been stunned that Langley would ignore Iran's missile program, terrorism program, safe haven for Al Qaida and infiltration of Iraq and Lebanon.

Privately, the Saudis have given one word of advice to the Bush administration: Either stop Iran now militarily or there will be a nuclear war in the Gulf that will destroy everybody. The message has been that a nuclear Iran could be soon followed by a nuclear Saudi Arabia.

Say, about that surge working and EFP and IED supplies being choked off by Iran.....I have a small question.


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posted by Epaminondas at permanent link#

3 Comments:

Blogger Pastorius said...

You think the surge is working because of an Iranian quid pro quo?

I do, sad to say.

Can you provide a link for this article?

Saturday, December 15, 2007 4:28:00 pm  
Blogger Epaminondas said...

I think it is a coherent explanation.

But that would mean that hard strategic penalties over the long term for both the USA and a close ally were bartered for what would be VERY short term, incredibly selfish political advantage. It would also mean that the worst of what the dems have said about this admin using 9/11 for pure political gain would be all too true in this this instance.

Sunday, December 16, 2007 11:49:00 am  
Blogger Epaminondas said...

It's Gertz again at Geostrategy-Direct.com, with my commments interspersed

Sunday, December 16, 2007 11:50:00 am  

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