The IRGC scenario: Israel attacks, and Hizballah executes the response worldwide

GERTZ:

Prospects of new war on rise as Hizbullah gains control in Lebanon

WASHINGTON -- Iran's proxies, particularly Hizbullah, are preparing for an imminent war against Israel, a report said.

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy said that Hizbullah has increasingly dominated Lebanon and could force the nation into another war against Israel. In a report, the institute said none of the issues that led to the 34-day war between Israel and Hizbullah in 2006 have been resolved.

"If the situation does not change significantly, it may only be a matter of time before a new conflict erupts in and around Lebanon," the report, titled "A Victory for Islamism: The Second Lebanon War and its Repercussions," said. "The group has spent the intervening years greatly expanding its military capacity, to such a degree that it can now decide whether Lebanon goes to war."

Authored by Swedish analyst Magnus Norell, the report said that neither the Lebanese government nor the international community has sought to address Hizbullah dominance, aided by Iran and Syria. Norell, a senior analyst at Swedish Defense Research Agency who formed a backchannel between Israel and Hizbullah to facilitate the Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000, asserted that Hizbullah has prevented Beirut from using its military.

"Approximately 70 percent of privates in the Lebanese army are Shi'ite, the sect from which Hizbillah recruits practically all of its members," the report said. "Most officers, on the other hand, are Christian or Sunni. This, too, was the case before the civil war."

Norell, along with his Swedish colleague, Magnus Ranstorp, participated in the discussions with Israel that led to the withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000. Norell recalled that the government of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak, today defense minister, decided to "bet" on the assurances of the United Nations and international community that they would prevent Hizbullah attacks on the Jewish state.

Instead, Norell said, Hizbullah embarked on an armament program that led to the 2006 war. He said the unilateral Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon as well as the pullout from the Gaza Strip five years later were regarded by Islamists as "pure capitulation."

"Not only has Hizbullah bolstered its military power and political influence, it has also strengthened its relations with Syria and Iran," the report said. "Finally, it has kept its conflict with Israel at a level high enough to ensure that the question of peace remains moot, but not so high as to endanger its political and military position within Lebanon."

Norell said Hizbullah was regarded by most Lebanese as having won the 2006 war with Israel. He said this has encouraged Arab states to reject peace negotiations with the Jewish state.

"Another war with Israel is expected to happen sooner or later, and Hizbullah is not prepared to allow its preparations to be hampered, either to the north or south of the Litani River," the report said.

Israel: Hizbullah has acquired long-range rockets based in Lebanon

TEL AVIV -- Israel's military has detected Hizbullah acquisition of missiles and rockets with ranges of up to 325 kilometers.

Officials said the weapons could strike targets in most of Israel.

"Some of them have a range of 300 kilometers and some of them have a range of up to 325 kilometers," Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi said.

In a Nov. 10 briefing to a parliamentary committee, Ashkenazi said Hizbullah has already deployed the long-range rockets in Lebanon. He said a rocket attack from the Beirut area could reach the nuclear reactor in the southern Israeli city of Dimona.

"There is a paradox," Ashkenazi told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee said. "On one hand, there is calm. But when you peek over the fence you can see armament and empowerment."

Officials said the latest acquisition marked the longest-range missiles and rockets in Hizbullah's arsenal. Until 2009, they said, Hizbullah wielded weapons with a range of about 200 kilometers.

Ashkenazi did not identify the latest Hizbullah missile. The missile approximated the range of the Soviet-origin Scud B.

Officials said Hizbullah has amassed an arsenal of 40,000 missiles and rockets, most of them short-range weapons. They said Iran has increased weapons and other military support to its Lebanese proxy.

"We don't delude ourselves," Ashkenazi said. "The situation is delicate and Hizbullah is growing stronger all the time. The Iranian challenge is to increase control over the Middle East through training, arms and money provided to all terror organizations."

Now imagine a massive missile response from Hizballah operating as volunteers operating in Syria against US forces in Iraq. Against US forces wherever they can bring these rockets. Iran maintains fig leaf deniability with Obama's timid, legal proof requirements for response, and need for world approval before proceeding.

Barack Obama told CNN yesterday, "I've restored America's standing in the world..."

Iran DEPENDS upon America's risk averse need for 'moral standing' to succeed in creation of CHAOS they can take advantage of, in ways 'civilized' societies are reluctant to respond to.

According to Dr. Hassan Abbasi, adviser to the Iranian govt, the global balance of power is in a state of flux and every nation should fight for a place in a future equilibrium. The Western powers, especially the United States, still wield immense military and economic power that "looks formidable on paper." But they are unable to use that power because their populations have become "risk-averse." "The Western man today has no stomach for a fight," Abbasi says. "This phenomenon is not new: All empires produce this type of man, the self-centered, materialist, and risk-averse man." Abbasi believes that the US intervention in Iraq, which involved "slightly higher risks" than the invasion of Afghanistan, was the very last of its kind. And even then, the US went into Iraq because of President George W Bush's "readiness to do what no other American leader would dare contemplate.

Israel's 'Iron Dome' missile defense system to be ready by 2011

Israel needs a real plan for Iran's REAL PLAN

TEL AVIV -- Israel plans to deploy a new rocket defense system in 2011.

Israeli Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi said the military would deploy the Iron Dome system to intercept incoming missiles and rockets. Ashkenazi said Iron Dome was advancing toward production and would be ready in 2011.

"Two new anti-aircraft artillery batteries of the Iron Dome missile defense system, which is designed for the interception of Katyusha and Kassam rockets, will begin operating in 2011," a military statement said on Nov. 14.

Iron Dome was meant to intercept missiles and rockets with a range of up to 70 kilometers. The system, which underwent its first live-fire test in mid-2009, has been developed by the state-owned Rafael Advance Defense Systems.

In a Nov. 10 briefing to the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Ashkenazi said Iron Dome would be required for the growing arsenal of short- and medium-range missile and rocket arsenals stationed along Israel's borders. The chief of staff cited threats by Hamas and the Iranian-sponsored Hizbullah.

Ashkenazi said Hizbullah has acquired missiles with a range of 300 kilometers. He said Hizbullah has "tens of thousands of missiles in its possession, a small percentage of them able to reach a range of 300 kilometers," the military statement said.

"The chief of staff said that Hamas and Hizbullah, amid the relative quiet in recent months along borders of the north and Gaza Strip, have been rearming with missiles and rockets," the military statement said.