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Saturday, November 26, 2011

Iran is working with proxies in Bahrain, Gaza Strip, Iraq, Lebanon, Kuwait and other countries to undermine any U.S.-led effort to destroy its nukes

Gertz:

“From Iran’s standpoint, a head-on confrontation with the United States and Israel would serve its purposes in the region and build its image as an actor that stands firm against the Western powers and does not submit to pressure,” said a new report from the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs.

“If there still was any chance of Teheran agreeing to concessions in its sporadic talks with the West about its nuclear program, the Middle Eastern turmoil has now made a compromise all but impossible,” said the report, “Iran Signals Its Readiness for a Final Confrontation.”

[On Nov. 19, Iran announced a four-day military exercise that would include air, naval and ground forces. The military said the exercise was meant to test command and control amid foreign threats to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities.]

Authored by retired Israeli Lt. Col. Michael Segall, the report said Iran would continue to develop its military amid Western demands to halt uranium enrichment and to dismantle nuclear weapons. Segall asserted that Iran, following one of the harshest International Atomic Energy Agency reports, has sought to intimidate the Middle East and its Western allies.

“The current round of the conflict between Iran and the United States and Israel over Iran’s military nuclear program should be seen in a much wider context, one that centers on shaping a new landscape in the Middle East,” Segall wrote.

“Iran views itself as ‘the next big thing’ in the region and behaves accordingly — at the moment with no significant challenge or response from the United States and the West.”

Iran has been bolstering its proxies throughout the Middle East, including Hamas, Hizbullah and Islamic Jihad. The report said Teheran, aided by China and Russia, has concluded that threats made by Israeli and the United States are empty.

“Iran no longer fears openly acknowledging that it has built capabilities for reacting to an attack — including the Palestinian organizations in Gaza and Hizbullah in Lebanon — and depicts them as part of its defensive strategy and response in case of a confrontation with Israel and the United States.”

PS….

Israel still preparing pre-emptive strike against Iran nuclear facility

There are continuing signs that Israel is preparing to deal a military strike against Iran, an action that Washington fears might be the first step in a new regional conflict that would embroil the United States.

Israel and the U.S. agree on intelligence assessments that Iran has the technical capability to produce material for a nuclear bomb in a relatively short period of time.That assessment is what has raised the stake for the Israelis, who believe that the time is short for them to take military action if they hope to put off the Iranian nuclear program for two or three years. The Israelis, however, do not believe that military action would permanently cripple Teheran’s program.

The key concern for U.S. officials is that Iran is prepared to conduct attacks on U.S. forces in the region, most likely through conventional missile strikes, if a conflict breaks out after a military strike.

“This will not be like Syria,” said one official, referring to the surgical Israeli air strike at al Kabir, the nuclear facility that was being built with North Korean assistance.

In the Brooking Institution’s complex simulation all the US Team EVER tried to achieve was to turn off the conflict.

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