Tom Friedman is worried.
He charts some accurate observation…
Syria is the keystone of the Levant. It borders and balances a variety of states, sects and ethnic groups. If civil war erupts there, every one of Syria’s neighbors will cultivate, and be cultivated by, different Syrian factions — Sunnis, Alawites, Kurds, Druse, Christians, pro-Iranians, pro-Hezbollahites, pro-Palestinians, pro-Saudis — in order to try to tilt Syria in their direction. Turkey, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Iraq, Iran, Hamas, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Israel all have vital interests in who rules in Damascus, and they will all find ways to partner with proxies inside Syria to shape events there. It will become a big Lebanon-like brawl.
And then comes the charming hope of the liberal emote.
Syria needs a peaceful democratic transition set in motion now.
Really? Is that what you want to chart out a way to hope for? The IMPOSSIBLE?
On one level, you have the very modern, deeply felt and truly authentic longing by Syrians and Egyptians for freedom, for the skills to thrive in modernity and for the rights of real citizens.
Outsiders often underestimate just how much these Arab youths are determined to limit the powers of their militaries as a necessary step for achieving true democracy.
In a TRUE DEMOCRACY those youths will have to arrest and shoot down, convict and sentence others who are obliterating Copts, Jews and other Egyptians who happen to non-muslim. Is this a reasonable expectation?
Well, according to another charming savant, David Ignatius of WaPo it is.
I asked Prince Saud to help me understand the Arab Spring and where it’s going. Many Saudis think it’s a disaster that will wind up empowering the Muslim Brotherhood, but the prince gave a more sympathetic view.
“It is a great transformation in the Arab world,” he said. “It is happening in different ways in different countries for different reasons. I think the similarity in these cases is a lack of attention to the will of the people by the governing bodies, and an assumption that they can go on neglecting the will of the people because they control the situation. But you can never avoid what the people want, no matter what government you have.
“One doesn’t know what will result from these revolutions,” Saud continued. “A revolution can turn out well: In America, it was a good revolution
Ok, the source for moderation in what to expect is one of the WAHABBI FREAKS, whose in laws the Al Sheiks are responsible for a significant % of the jews and crusaders vitriol, and with whom they control how much blood flows into your brain lungs and heart,if you get my drift. Can the Al Saud be so dumb? No chance, but in your charming way, you are, and your naive hopes are, except that there are those who use your charm as the icon and justification for their policies to paint, as you do, the idea that this change is a good thing.
I think Saud captured the most positive factor I have seen in my travels this year.
How poignant for you. And how telling.
Pew:
Huntington is what I see as the most likely outcome.
That is how it is. Not how I wish it, or like it. Just how it is.
The truth may be uncomfortable, but if we are to avoid making this clash of values a hot war of indeterminate length and unimaginable ferocity, we have to start by accepting the reality FIRST, and then charting a course though it.
2 comments:
If we really, I mean really did confront reality, We probably would already be in various brutally violent unrestrained hot wars IMO.
It would be nice though if we at least started to begin to start to begin to confront at least some semblance of reality.
Like the action needed to avoid collision with an approaching asteroid, the closer it gets, the longer one waits to recognize the need to act, and then act, the more extreme the action has to be.
Just because it's Huntington doesn't mean we have to enact some cataclysmic action.
If each nation from the African Atlantic to the Chinese border and on to Indonesia has as the people
's goal MORE Quran in their daily life as the popular goal, but maintain NATIONAL STRUCTURES we can probably eventually weave our way through until SOME of those nations throw out quranic govts because like every ideologically based solution which must void practicality THEY FAIL TO FUNCTION SUCCESSFULLY.
They will make nations into Gaza.
If that's the result, GOOD LUCK, as we all stumble our way in the west, BUT FORWARD, SOMEHOW. In those other quranically controlled nations it really will be about your beard, not your merit IN THIS WORLD.
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