Thursday, October 11, 2012

Unemployment decreases: ONE LARGE STATE DID NOT REPORT and accounts for most of the difference


Here we go all over again.
The key piece of info is HOW OFTEN DOES THIS HAPPEN?
Once a year? Once every 5 years? Once in 10 years?
CNBC:

Why Jobless Claims May Not Be as Good as Market Thinks

For the second time in a week, a government unemployment report is sowing confusion—and may not be as positive as the markets think.
First it was last Friday’s August payrolls report, which showed an unexpectedly large drop in the unemployment rate, that spurred confusion (andconspiracy theories). Now, a sharp drop in the pace of new jobless claims has also left people scratching their heads.
The Labor Department on Thursday said the number of peoplefiling jobless claims last week dropped by a seasonally adjusted 30,000—a pretty sharp decline, and one that left the total number of filings at a four-year low of 339,000.
Financial markets immediately rallied on the news. (Read more:Stocks Rise After Jobless Claims Hit 4-Year Low.)
While the government didn’t note any unusual factors in the release itself, a Labor Department official did tell news agencies covering the release about a quirk which partly accounted for the larger-than-expected drop.As Dow Jones reported: “A Labor Department economist said one large state didn’t report additional quarterly figures as expected, accounting for a substantial part of the decrease.”
The wording of that statement, along with the accompanying headlines, left the impression that one major state didn’t turn in its figures.
Here’s what actually happened. The state did report weekly jobless claims but did not process and report its quarterly claims number (when many people have to reapply for benefits for technical reasons as opposed to being newly laid off). As a result, there wasn’t the expected spike in claims that normally happens at the start of the quarter.

It is unclear why that happened or how unusual that is

In other words, the drop of 30,000 last week had more to do with the lack of expected re-filings at the start of the fourth quarter than with any particular improvement in labor market conditions.
Now, why would a LARGE STATE’s federal employees neglect to do everything in its power to ensure that the month before a national election of critical consequence, key figures over unemployment not be filed, thus artificially depressing unemployment numbers?
I just can’t imagine.

3 comments:

Pastorius said...

Yesterday, I sat with a woman who worked for the Union for 30+ years.

She said that they used to forbid their employees to shop at Wal-Mart. Tell them who to vote for, and this:

She said their contracts leading into the election would always be shitty one-year contracts, rather than the more lucrative three-year contracts that would come out of election years.

Get it?

They fucked their employees over with bad contracts so they'd be pissed at the Republicans, and be sure to vote Democratic.

What do you know?

Epaminondas said...

All's fair in love and war.

Personally I have to admit I have underestimated the lengths the media would go to, to ensure Obama's election. They have literally given up ANY fig leaf of objectivity.
Andrea Mitchell (like big bird) is now in Obama commercials, not as a paid spokesmoron, BUT IN HER ROLE AS NEWSWOMAN, merely acting in the way she does.
It's a danger to the republic

Anonymous said...

What I would like to know is: Which state failed to report? Maybe Illinois??