Poll too much to hope for BATTLEGROUND POLL 10/29 … ROMNEY WINS 52-47, AND in Ohio

Maybe this explains Obama becoming really weird.

Reported by Weekly Std, Human Events, Fox News, and the Inquisitor. Politico which partners with Battleground, did NOT report this, and carries the news that Obama has pulled back into the lead.

New Projection of Election Results: Romney 52, Obama 47

The bipartisan Battleground Poll, in its “vote election model,” is projecting that Mitt Romney will defeat President Obama 52 percent to 47 percent.  The poll also found that Romney has an even greater advantage among middle class voters, 52 percent to 45 percent.

While Obama can close the gap with a strong voter turnout effort, “reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory,” says pollster Ed Goeas.

Should Romney win by 5 percentage points, it would increase Republican chances of gaining control of the Senate.  His coattails would help elect GOP Senate candidates in Virginia, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida.  “Republicans are now certain to hold the House,” Goeas said, “regardless of how the presidential race turns out.”

The poll’s election model takes into account variables including voter intensity, age, and education, and voters who are certain in their vote.  The race “remains very close in the surface,” Goeas said, “but the political environment and the composition of the likely electorate favor Governor Romney.”

The projected outcome by the Battleground Poll is close to that of the Gallup Poll.  Last week, Gallup said Romney leads Obama 49 percent to 46 percent in its model of the electorate’s composition on November 6.

The Battleground Poll is conducted by Goeas of the Tarrance Group and Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners.  Goeas is a Republican, Lake a Democrat.  The survey is affiliated with Politico and George Washington University.

Here is Politico today…

Obama retakes the lead

By JAMES HOHMANN | 10/29/2012 5:00 AM ET

The latest POLITICO-George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll shows Obama ahead of Romney by 1 percent, representing a 3-point swing in Obama’s direction from a week ago. The president also leads by 8 points among those who have already voted, 53 to 45 percent.