Working theory:
- Islamists, aka the Muslim Brotherhood will be the main beneficiary of Assad assuming room temperature, no matter if we help or not, therefore another ‘Egypt’ will rise
- Syria, since the 1940’s has been Israel’s (our only ACTIVE ALLY) bitterest enemy, and her people APPROVE
- If we help, realizable thanks will be invisible, gratitude, non existent
- The best we can hope for would be a Lebanon like mess
Reasons for entering Syria
- Control or destruction of WMD
- Humanitarian
- Saving a moderate regime in Jordan
- It hurts Iran, and therefore Hizballah as well
Counter reasons for staying out:
- Boots on the ground do NOT assure we get or destroy all the Sarin, VX or biological weapons.
- Unless we are willing to be Sheriff, or use MASSIVE manpower (ain’t happening) we are not going to save lives
- Any ‘help’ we give Jordan will, because it comes from us, be counterproductive
The USA has nothing to offer the people of the middle east as an alternative to more Quran (see Pew study), They will have to discover on their own (if they can) that the Sunni version of Iran will be a failure, and we will have to watch to see if there is the emergence of a caliphate. If the peoples of these lands conclude they want another elected govt we will have to see if the Islamists LEAVE POWER and if not, THEN WE CAN HAVE A ROLE.
There is no Jefferson in any of these lands today to ally with and if there was he is a DEAD MAN.
Today.
The USA CANNOT help in Syria with the single exception of destruction of WMD and we should be using special forces and air to ensure that NO MATTER WHAT.
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