The Last Refuge:
GOPe 2016 Road Map To Victory – Tree House Challenge…
In December of 2013 we found clues to the GOPe roadmap and began watching carefully.In a very general sense the broad construct begins around a very specific premise: The GOPe knew they would need to devise a strategy to elect Jeb Bush with around 15 – 25% of the primary vote, depending on the state – through the first nine calendar primary races. [Dixie states at the low end, and New England states at higher thresholds.]
If we were accurate in our hypothesis, which was actually based on their previous 2012 strategy to elect Mitt Romney, the 2014 mid-term visible GOP primary spending on incumbents, and alignments within the hierarchy of the Republican establishment – then we assume there would be two essential candidates:
Jeb Bush being candidate one, and Not-Jeb-Bush being the other.
This approach makes winning a matter of math, not ideology. The Sum of the Jeb Bush vote must be greater than any individual part within the Not-Jeb vote. That approach guarantee’s Jeb victory with far less than majority voter support.It seemed a little, well, “out there”; so in the Spring of 2014 we quietly established tripwires which would confirm if the roadmap was accurate.
One of those overall primary tripwires (about the 4th one) we established in 2014 was the sheer number of candidates that would be needed if Jeb was going to survive the lower support-margin, more conservative, states.
Each voting sub-set or ideology within the Republican base, within a specific state, would need multiple options in order for the ‘Not-Jeb’ vote to be kept in check below the “risk margin” allowing Jeb’s small vote count to be victorious. We called this “fracturing the block“.
If a single part of Not-Jeb (remember he/she’s a group) began polling higher than Jeb, then add another similar candidate and split Not-Jeb again. Scott Walker, Ted Cruz, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio and Rand Paul seemed to be the biggest risk to Jeb.
[Example: Tea Party conservative type voters would need multiple candidate options to fracture their voting block: (Walker, Cruz, Jindal, Rubio etc.)]
Obviously with 17 candidates, it goes without saying the key and essential tripwire was easily triggered. However, if it had not been – we would have stopped tracking.
Specifically because the number of candidate’s tripwire was triggered we began reviewing media notes for primary calendars, Super-PAC financing, inter-party alignment, money and state establishment party support.
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Now again, I am not a fan of Trump but I like that he is not only unafraid to touch third rails but grabs them and hangs on. Embraces them. He was right when he said in the debate they wouldn't even be talking about immigration if it were not for him.
His voice NEEDS to be heard and not shut out. If he is causing any schism in the Republican Party IT IS OF THEIR OWN DOING. Forcing issues out that they don't want to discuss. The boils are already there, he is merely applying the lancet.
Trying to shut him out only guarantees he will run as a third party. Let him have his say fairly like everyone else and let him lose fairly and he likely won't.
But if they try to ram Jeb down our throats there is a very good chance many (like myself) will vote for a third candidate or just stay home altogether since he seems to us not much different than presumptive nominee Hillary.
Something which also speaks to this bullshit 'electability"
If Trump is still ahead in the polls after Thursday's bloodfest it must say something about HIS electability. Someone out there must like him and be willing to vote for him.
And finally, for this reason and his shabby and petulant treatment of Trump and trying to just shut him down, I have cancelled my years long running to subscription to Erik Erickson and Red State. I personally will also no longer link or post anything by them.
Other writers on this blog may disagree with me on that and that's ok.
EVERY opinion has a right to be heard.
THAT'S America.
6 comments:
Sundance over at ConservativeTreehouse adds in a comment:
Remember, Cruz was ALWAYS part of the GOPe roadmap. Ted Cruz was always known to be a candidate when they created the plan a long time ago.
There is only one “wildcard” and that’s Trump. Once Trump is removed, the plan can go back to it’s original construct. That’s the GOPe goal here, to get back on track.
Cruz will never win the White House. Sorry to be blunt, but the entire construct of the original plan was to stop Walker, Cruz and/or Paul (Jindal) if needed from winning the nomination.
Trump voters are not necessarily Cruz voters at this point. And if Cruz did take lead at 20-25% (Trump numbers) he would enter the same gauntlet he was in when the government shutdown fight took place…. Remember Cruz was isolated-ridiculed-and marginalized in really short order. The entire apparatus will just do it again…. until he drops back to that 10-15% threshold.
They want:
Cruz 10-15%
Walker 10-15%
Rubio 10-15%
Paul 10-15%
Jindal 5-10%
Carson 5-10%
Santorum 5-10%
That way Jeb can win with 15-20-25% State Polling (the magic number is actually 20% for most state district delegates)
Everyone on the Donohue plan (Perry, Graham, Huckabee, Christie, Kasich, Gilmore, Pataki, Fiorina etc.) is specifically working to keep Jeb at 15-20-25% and everyone else less than Jeb’s threshold. AND THEY DON’T WANT ANYONE TO DROP OUT.
*****
Should the GoPe manipulations trigger a third party candidate another point to consider:
Spectator: The Bushioisie is wrong: Ross Perot Did Not 'Cost' G.H.W. Bush the White House in 1992
"Thursday's bloodfest." LOL.
Erickson fancies himself a Republican Party kingmaker. He tried this shit last go 'round with Perry and it blew up in his face. He obviously didn't learn anything. Too bad, 'cause in many ways he's OK.
*bloodfest LOL*
Like what I did there?
;-)
WE THE PEOPLE are screwed!
Related: Transparently Predictable Political “Tripwires”.. via Sundance @ConservativeTreehouse/Last Refuge
"At the request of many people who are only recently accepting the scope of the ruse, that is the 2016 GOP primary, we are going to begin identifying the “tripwires” before they are
crossed, and then highlighting the tripwire WHEN it is crossed.
Yesterday we told you of a specific “tripwire” to look for. Today, we share what it looks like moments before it is tripped."..."Moving forward look for Carly Fiorina to take the point on attacking Donald Trump
from behind. Carly will carefully look for opportunities to aim arrows into soft tissue. The media will enhance, highlight and paint the target.
Remember – Carly is in this race at the behest of the GOPe strategy to add womens enlightenment to the race, and provide gender fracturing. While Carly likes to paint herself as an outsider, she worked for the
McCain election in 08′ and the Romney election in ’12. Carly is every bit of establishment as the professional political class she claims to rail against." . . ."Carly Fiorina supports: “The Dream Act”, Man-made Global Warming, Carbon Tax/Trading proposals, and Common Core ed. In addition she’s
aligned with Jeb’s position on immigration.
Yes, you’ll note these are all U.S. Chamber of Commerce specific policy agenda items. That is not accidental."
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