Saturday, October 03, 2026

The Red-Green Alliance Takes Another Blow as Oil Traffic Through the Strait of Hormuz Rebounds to 98% of the Pre-War Level

Before the war with Iran began at the end of February, around 19 million barrels of crude left the region daily through the waterway and other routes. Because of the difficulty in tracking tankers, export totals supplied by analysts might not reflect the true flow of oil, but most experts say volumes rose significantly this month.

The turnaround has most noticeably occurred in the strait, even though Iran continues to attack tankers. A U.S. military operation aimed at protecting the vessels from the attacks appears to have encouraged more shipments by big exporting countries, like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

"They are getting a substantial amount of oil out, and it is increasing over time as shippers' confidence goes up," said Eugene Gholz, an associate professor of political science at the University of Notre Dame and an expert on conflict in the strait.

President Trump, members of his administration and U.S. military officials have said for weeks that the Strait of Hormuz is open, and that tankers are moving oil through the strait.


Here's the other side of the balance sheet: While we're getting most of the non-Iranian oil through the Strait, Iran is getting none through.

Scott Bessent reports that Iran got zero barrels of oil out in tankers in September.

There may be a small amount of oil getting out in tanker trucks, but that's no way to move a lot of oil.

Visual proof of Bessent's claim:About 20 empty Iranian tankers are now stranded off the coast of Sri Lanka. They cannot go back to Iran because of the blockade.

And the US is pressuring Sri Lanka not to allow them to refuel and resupply.

The ships are empty, having dumped their oil off in China and India, and now languishing with no cargo.

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