Israeli Plans ? Multi front war, NO US SUPPORT REQUIRED, thank you

GERTZ:

TEL AVIV -- Israel's General Staff has ordered the drafting of studies that would determine the feasibility of an Israeli strike on Iran and Syria.

Officials said the studies would assume that Israel would operate alone in a multi-front war directed by Iran.

"An axis of evil coordinated between Iran, Syria, Hizbullah and Hamas will require Israel to wage a campaign against it that will require our best efforts and abilities," Israel Navy commander Vice Adm. Eliezer Marom said on Feb. 22.

Officials said the military plans reflect an assessment by the Israeli intelligence community that the United States would not confront Iran and Syria, regardless of their threat to the region.

I'd say that was an accurate assessment

The assessment envisions that President Barack Obama would suspend or lift sanctions from Iran and Syria as part of a U.S. reconciliation with Damascus and Teheran.

"Israel will take no option off the table," Defense Minister Ehud Barak told the Israeli Cabinet on Feb. 22.

At this point, officials said, the General Staff has been divided over the feasibility of any attack on Iran without U.S. assistance. They said several generals, including Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi and military intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Amos Yadlin, were skeptical over Israel's military capability to destroy Iran's nuclear weapons capability.

"Ashkenazi believes that the cost of a strike against Iran would be massive and could harm Israel for years to come," a military source said.

The military effort has also sought to assess U.S. help in any future war against Israel. The source said both the General Staff and the Defense Ministry were preparing for a reduction in U.S. military aid to Israel under the Obama administration.

Yadlin has also expressed support for U.S. plans to conduct a dialogue with Iran. Officials said Yadlin and other Israeli generals have concluded that Israel could relay messages to Teheran through such a U.S. effort.

Still, the Defense Ministry has drafted a document that was to be relayed to U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton during her visit to Israel on March 3. The Israeli daily Haaretz reported that the document urged the Obama administration to impose harsh sanctions against Iran even as Washington seeks reconciliation. The Defense Ministry, in a document drafted with the Foreign Ministry, also demanded that the reconciliation effort be limited.

"A time limit must be set for the talks to prevent Iran from merely buying time to complete its nuclear development," Haaretz said. "The talks should also be defined as a 'one-time opportunity' for Teheran. Timing is critical, and the United States should consider whether it makes sense to begin the talks before Iran's presidential election in June."

The military has assessed that Iran could direct Hizbullah and its Palestinian allies to escalate attacks against Israel from Lebanon. Officials said Hizbullah was being equipped and trained for a war with Israel that could include Syria.

In any war with Teheran or its proxies, officials said, the military has assessed that its bases would be leading targets of Iranian and Syrian missiles. The military has established a unit in the General Staff authorized to ensure the protection of bases.

The military effort has been coordinated with Barak as well as Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. On Feb. 22, Barak, Olmert and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni conducted a review of Iran's nuclear weapons program and Israeli options.

Officials said much of the discussion focused on Obama's policy toward Iran and Syria. They said Barak, regarded as the most pro-U.S. minister in the Cabinet, expressed the hope that the Obama administration would exhaust its attempt to reconcile with Iran by 2010.

"I estimate that an Iranian dialogue will be launched with the Obama administration, and that each time there is a real chance for military action we will see Iranian gestures aimed at delaying the matter," Barak said. "In the background, there is an Iranian effort to also reach deeper fortification and a better protection of their systems."