FLASHPOINT: PAKISTAN

From Ilana Freedman:

The rapidly deteriorating situation in Pakistan was spotlighted this week by a series of bold and deadly attacks on government and civilian targets. Carried out under the Pakistan Taliban/al Qaeda umbrella, the growing incitement has global implications. At mid-day today, a suicide car bomb was detonated near a Pakistani army check point, a Central Intelligence Agency building, and a mosque, leaving eleven people, including three policemen, known dead, according to the Pakistani Daily Dawn News. It was feared that children were among those killed by the blast. This attack followed a violent, frontal assault yesterday on two police training centers and a federal investigations building, in which 19 police officers and at least eleven of the attackers were killed. Three other major attacks occurred this past week, including one at a police station in the northwest city of Kohat, another in a residential complex in Peshawar, the capital of North-West Frontier Province, and a 20-hour siege against the army headquarters in Rawalpindi. The increasing frequency and brazenness of these latest attacks indicate a dramatic deterioration in Pakistan's national security and a major threat to the country's political stability. According to our sources, the Pakistani government is becoming increasingly dysfunctional, rife with corruption, and unable to take critical decisions on national security and policy. It has been reported that political leaders have marginalized the parliament, making unilateral decisions that rightly belong to the legislators, and undermining the democratic process. Several scenarios have been suggested by analysts following the deteriorating conditions, who foresee the potential for a complete breakdown of Pakistan's governmental infrastructure that could lead to the dissolution of the state in the very near future. One source suggested that the collapse could occur in a matter of days, not weeks or months. The added possibility of the capture of Pakistan's nuclear facilities by Taliban forces should raise global concerns, because of the unfolding consequences. The implications of the current fighting is therefore significant and should be viewed with alarm. America Gets Involved - The Controversial Kerry-Lugar Bill On Thursday, President Barack Obama signed the Enhanced Partnership with Pakistan Act of 2009, also known as the Kerry-Lugar Bill, into law. The bill triples our non-military aid to Pakistan, raising the figure to about $7.5 billion over the next five years. The fierce controversy which developed in Pakistan over the concern that the conditions of this bill would interfere with their own national sovereignty, compelled the US Congress to attach an explanatory statement to clarify the bill's intention. The statement provided the assurance that, "There is no intent to, and nothing in this Act in any way suggests that there should be, any US role in micromanaging internal Pakistani affairs, including the promotion of Pakistani military officers or the internal operations of the Pakistani military." No changes were made, however,in the text of the highly controversial bill itself. The conditions that enraged so many Pakistanis come in the form of military as well as economic constraints. In any case, the bill comes at a time when the Pakistani government can barely look beyond the next few days, no less consider the next five years. In view of the current unrest, the ramifications of this bill may well be irrelevant. Global Implications The accelerated attacks throughout the country represent a significant escalation that signals a coordinated Taliban/al Qaeda push to destabilize Pakistan and gain as much control there as possible. The potential ramifications of the rising tide of violence in Pakistan should not to be overlooked or minimized. And the pledge of American dollars in the future will do little to stem the tide of violence against the Pakistani government today. Whether Pakistan can survive the current onslaught is one of two existential questions. The second is whether Pakistan's nuclear facilities will fall into Taliban (and therefore al Qaeda) hands. Should this happen, India is likely to respond in what it perceives to be its own defense. A pre-emptive attack on Pakistan, precipitated by these conditions, will represent an attack by a non-Muslim state on a Muslim state, and is likely to unleash another demon of global proportions. Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has publicly stated that 40,000 trained suicide bombers have deployed in countries around the world, and are ready to strike in the event of an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. It remains to be seen if an attack by India on Pakistan will elicit the same response. It is an assumption we should not take lightly. IntelAnalysis represents a summary of the deep research and analysis carried out by Gerard Group in support of national security initiatives in the public and private sectors. For more information about how Gerard Group's services can help your organization apply actionable intelligence to your strategic requirements, please visit our website at www.gerardgroup.com. You may also contact us directly at 800-950-4213 or by e-mail tosupport@gerardgroup.com