As someone who has made my beliefs very clear on Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons this was an interesting article. It is long and detailed and the product of much work and it can be found HERE
However fitting into this thesis is precisely what I have predicted will occur.
No action without force, and EVEN KNOWLEDGE of coming use of force will deter Iran from trying to build or building nukes.Israel will be compelled to act
Iran WILL respond with everything it has in the region, including attacks on every single american base they can reach. Regional hegemony is their first aim and they cannot afford to let this be forgotten anywhere their weapons have range.Hizballah and HAMAS will go all in. IMMEDIATELY.A region wide war will ensue.Oil will top > $200 barrel.WMD use WILL occur and the situation might slip into another realm.One air strike will NEVER suffice, and use of Israeli ballistic missiles will probably be compulsory, at the very least.The strikes may be composed of VERY UNORTHODOX MEANSIsrael will not only be isolated internationally but will face Obama cutting off all weapons, and accusations in the USA will ensue encompassing americans who happen to be jewish and oppose Obama's new 'peace' policy with 'balance'... that dual loyalties a la Walt and Mearsheimer are involved and the political scene in the USA will be fractured as never before.If Israel appears to be victorious or on the path to winning it is entirely possible a secret weapons deal withRussia for SU-35's and PAK-FA (T-50's) ..in which Rusian airframes are sold and Israeli avionics installed, and are TRADED BACK TO RUSSIA will ensue and is PREPARED ..damaging American security interests in the ME forGENERATIONSIran MAY refrain from Hizballah attacks in the USA to keep the USA from major response, but WILL attack if Israeli strikes continue since they may face loss of controlThe only strategic outcome which is a clean big WIN would be removal of the mullah regime and this can be achieved ONLY via a months' long unrelenting campaign to decapitate the Iranian regime, IRGC and BASIJ and destruction of their material assets and means of weapons delivery and production, and THIS is something Israel is probably not physically capable of without expending its entire air force.
17 comments:
Epa,
I got used to "sleepless nights' long ago,,
but, what do I do now with the new "shivering" and "cold sweats" ?
Dear Epa,
Israel's late President Haim Hertzog, served as a "National Hypnotizer" during the "Six Days War"!
He did a marvelous Job ! I have it on a 33rpm LP !... Put your hand on it and LISTEN !
The apocalyptic atmosphere before the war broke out is beyond description !
"THE LAST ONE TO LEAVE THE AIR-PORT, PLEASE SWITCH OFF THE LIGHTS"!...
The Arab Air Force vanished at the rate of one Jet Fighter per 30 seconds ! In 4 hour it was all gone !!!
8 days later, I was back home for 24 hours leave !!! I WAS THERE !
AND MY SONS ARE MUCH BETTER THEN ME !!!
Alex.
.
Epam, what is your take on the current situation with the Bushehr reactor? The Russians say they will be inserting the fuel rods on the 21st, next Saturday, which is causing some speculation that Israel will attack some time this week because that's the only window left open where they can do it without releasing radiation into the air and possibly the waters of the Persian Gulf.
Also Bill Whittle's interview with Sam Cohen, developer of the neutron bomb, on whether Iran already has low-yield plutonium devices obtained from their uranium. Cohen thinks they may already have enough of these bombs to wipe out all the cities in Israel.
This all comes down to whether Iran is deter-able with a nuke or not?
Are they like the USSR? I think the answer is NO, but are they different enuf to launch on Israel out of the blue or hand off to HAMAS of Hizballah?
Unknown, but on the last two I think YES.
Therefore Israel can NEVER allow Iran to have a nuke.
Does Bushehr matter?
Not as much as Qom, Arak and Natanz, and the unknown sites. No matter (IMHO) that Russia might not really care that much if a nuke would cripple or destroy Israel, they DO care if their own U-235/8 they meant for power ends up causing a regional nuclear exchange which permanently ends their arms market in the ME.
As far as Neutron weapons... It is impossible for me to believe that Israel in such a situation would NOT just obliterate Iran, including every population center via Jericho missiles and submarine launched missiles, but also every major Arab/Muslim city they can reach since their future existence (if any) would then be in relation to arab neighbors suddenly in a very different situation from any since 1949-56.
This kind of outcome is PRECISELY why Obama should be thinking like Truman and FDR.
What is the path to the fewest casualties (especially to our people) given the impossibility of stopping Iran from getting nukes and the resultant likelihood of compulsory Israeli attack(s)?
What would come to our men and women in Iraq and Afghanistan in an all out situation which occurred because we were unable to move ourselves out of Hamlet mode?
To the other side the answer is all the jews outside the USA die, and those jews are made to shut up in fear.
To our side it means we take out the mullahs, the IRGC and the Basij.
Alex,
At some point every week I find my ears attuning to Ofra Haza singing Yerushalayim Shel Zahav, and wondering what God can be THINKING ABOUT.
It may be blasphemy but so sorry ..
I
HAVE
QUESTIONS
Epa, You said: Does Bushehr matter?
Not as much as Qom, Arak and Natanz, and the unknown sites.
So, my question is, do you think John Bolton's analysis is shallow?
http://ibloga.blogspot.com/2010/08/newsmax-john-bolton-russias-loading-of.html
Please allow a worried mom a selfish moment here: If Israel attacks Iran--then what will happen to US troops in Iraq and Afghanistan?
IMI,
I don't think Iran has enough power to do everything they would like to do.
In the first place, I don't think they have nukes. Beyond that, they couldn't attack our troops without inviting more trouble on themselves at a time when they will already have enough on their hands.
But, I don't blame you for being worried.
Pasto .. I don't think the Iranians are depending on anyone or anything OUTSIDE Iran for nuclear weapons development .. nor did Pakistan, North Korea or India ... OR ISRAEL.
Bushehr may however provide a key moment for Israel to say . 'so sorry, but why take a chance?'
I think Iran can have a DEVICE in months. A deliverable weapon?
Impossible for me to guess. But not that much longer if they decide to make a bomb, not a warhead.
We are already warning that Iran is invested with terror groups where our troops are. The IRGC will not be the attacking agent, these groups will be.
The key question is, do the Iranians believe Obama is the kind of man to attack them directly if THEY BELIEVE they can hide their attacks on american troops and bases within these groups' efforts?
I say he HAS NO CREDIBLE HISTORY that he would act in such a case that these guys would believe.
They may be wrong, but they will make that error JUST AS NASRALLAH DID in 2006.
Pasto, when we lived in the other universe of good = good and right = right, I would agree with you. But in the age of Obama, what do you think he will do if our troops are attacked? As much as Israel is hated in those nations, I worry that our troops will become the focus for the anger of the ordinary Muslim people, who are right now, fighting with America against the jihadis--but will the game change if Israel bombs Iran?
I don't blame Israel, they've gotta do what they've gotta do to survive...but with the current idot in chief in the White House...I just worry that he isn't willing to go all in to protect our troops, becuase he is too worried about his Muslim brethren
Yes, IMI, perhaps I am living in the past.
WOW we have a big diversity of opinion here.
I actually think Obama WILL respond to attacks on our troops, but not in a decisive enough fashion because he will be concerned about Hizballah attacks HERE.
The foreign developments of our times calls for more WT than BO if for no other reason than avoiding civilizational and cultural level errors that lead to things like 12/7/41
Pasto--take me with you please, somewhere mid Reagan.
No opinions here, Epa, just a basket full of concern. I remember a time when I knew with certainty that any attacks on American troops overseas would lead to decisive retaliation by the US. I just wish I had that certainty back again---I watch Obama do so many things to undermine our nation and I doubt he has any more respect for our sons and daughters in harms way than he does for the Constitution he has sworn to uphold and defend...
anyway...Im gonna go play with my grandbabies and pray for their father..
Thanks for the information all.
Israel must and will attack Iran, the sooner the better. (It is way past time now). However I'll go a step further and say that they must at least also destabilize Iranian leadership, from the top down, if not decapitate it altogether and give the Iranian people a chance to put something better in place. IMO this is something we should have done before we went into Iraq and I said so at the time (although not here because I had not yet discovered the wonderfulness of IBA).
I don't believe Obama would move pre-emptively to protect U.S. troops and assets in the ME when this occurs, and I certainly don't believe he will come immediately to the side and defense of Israel.
Not because he is a closet muslim or an Anti-semite.
Because he is woefully unprepared and unqualified for the office he holds and his inexperience will paralyze him with fear and indecision. Much to the peril of our interests and Israel's.
Some ME states may indeed go after Israel but a number of them, as the article mentions. will just outwardly issue a stern Tsk Tsk and maybe call for U.N. condemnation. States like Dubai or S.A. or Kuwait won't openly attack.
The real threat will be the terrorist organizations and where they may have infiltrated.
When the attacks come on our troops, and they will come, Obama will respond eventually but only so far as he thinks is POLITICALLY necessary to save his own skin, not that of our people.
Because, at the bottom, this is a man who is afraid of a real fight, who does not want to get his knuckles bruised and his nose bloodied, who would rather surrender his milk money to the schoolyard bully because he is afrtaid he might get in trouble, because people won't see him as a nice guy anymore. Because someone might yell at him.
Obama wu=ill act only so far as is POLITICALLY necessary because he is afraid of confrontations.
"he is afraid of confrontations" unless it's with those WHO CAN DO HIM NO REAL HARM
Exactly.
Thank you Guys for knocking me down !
Sweet unconsciousness came to save me from my agony !
You pulled my toe, right?
It was a scary one!!
Epa, you are " ICHI BAN ! " ( Number one in Japanese).
france - the sanctuary of lourdes was threatened with 4 bombs... 30000 people were evacuated...
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