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Wall Street Journal

Democratic Seats Vulnerable on Jobs

By GARY FIELDS

ALBION, Mich.—Michelle Rena Jones cheered when candidates Barack Obama and Joe Biden visited south-central Michigan in 2008. She supported Mr. Obama that November along with a slate of Democrats, including Mark Schauer in the 7th congressional district.

Job creation is one of the top issues among voters. In districts with high unemployment, that could spell trouble for a host of Democrats in tight congressional races. WSJ's Neil Hickey reports.

Now, the 40-year-old is rethinking her lifelong support for the party. She has been without steady work for two years, lost her home and car and began receiving cash assistance from the state for the first time. This year, she says, "I'm willing to take a chance on something different." Another possibility, she says, is that she won't vote at all.

Ms. Jones is part of an unmeasured, agitated mass: unemployed Americans who don't believe the Obama Administration and Congress have done enough to produce jobs. With elections coming up, their unease is especially troublesome for the Democrats, who control both chambers.

A poor economy never bodes well for incumbents. Cook Report, the nonpartisan political newsletter that tracks congressional races, estimates that 73 House seats are vulnerable—including Mr. Schauer's. This group has two things in common. Almost all (66 of 73) are held by Democrats, and most include counties that have unemployment rates exceeding the national average, according to data assembled by The Wall Street Journal.

In the seven counties of Mr. Schauer's district, for example, the unemployment rate ranges between 9.3% and 15.4%. In only one is it below the national average of 9.5%. Last Tuesday, voter malaise was apparent here: The primary contest drew roughly 28% of the voters who turned out for the general election in 2008.

"The jobless are the new swing voters," says Rick Sloan, acting executive director of UCubed, a community service project of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers. "You can talk about deficit reduction, health-care reform—you can talk about all those things but you're talking past the jobless voters."

Unemployment in the individual congressional districts "is the leading factor in determining the November elections," says Mark Gersh, one of the Democrats' top voting analysts. "The hope of the administration is it's trending down when the elections are held, but they're running out of time."

According to the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC poll, conducted this month, only 34% of poll respondents think the economy will get better in 2011—13 percentage points less than last September.


The fear in Michigan is palpable. The state's Democratic Lt. Gov. John Cherry isn't eligible to seek election again, having served two terms. He thought about running for governor, but decided he couldn't overcome a potential voter backlash on the economy. "I happen to believe that is the biggest political driver in this upcoming election," he says. In Michigan, he argues, voters' concern over unemployment isn't a temporary situation, but the result of a "fundamental economic shift."

The result is an environment "much like 1982," says Republican pollster Bill McInturff, when a deep recession and disenchantment with President Ronald Reagan led Republicans to lose many of the House seats they won two years earlier. In 1982, voters listed unemployment and the economy as one of their biggest concerns. "We're seeing the exact same kind of numbers today," he says.

In a bid to change perceptions, the White House has embarked on a summer-long project to highlight jobs it says were created by the stimulus act, dubbed "Recovery Summer." The campaign includes visits by the president and others to sites around the country, including nearby Midland, Mich.

For both parties, jobs are at the center of their developing campaign messages. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the campaign arm for House members, is running advertisements that blame foreign outsourcing, and the Republican policies that encourage it, for the current jobs picture. DCCC officials say they also plan to highlight how Republicans for weeks held up the extension of unemployment benefits.

"There are specific projects and jobs that people can point to that would not exist if the Republicans had had their way and there was no stimulus bill," says DCCC Chairman, Maryland Rep. Chris Van Hollen.

Paul Lindsay, spokesman for the House Republican Campaign Committee, says Republicans plan to counterpunch. "Democrats promised that their so-called 'stimulus' would keep unemployment below 8%, yet it has risen well above that," he says. "Now, after spending $1 trillion to expand the size of government, states like Indiana and Michigan are still suffering from double-digit unemployment."

The unemployment picture suggests that Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, California and even Rhode Island have competitive races in districts that just two years ago seemed to be safely Democratic, according to political prognosticators such as the Cook Report.

In Rhode Island, the Congressional seat being vacated by Patrick Kennedy has been in Democratic hands for all but six years since 1941. While four Democrats are still vying for a place on the September ballot, the leading Republican candidate is hammering the state's 12% unemployment rate.

Professor Leonard Lardaro, an economist at the University of Rhode Island in Kingston, says the state is angry at its incumbents, although he stopped short of predicting a Republican win. "The question for Rhode Island is how mad are people going to be in November?"

By a variety of measures, times are hard in south central Michigan. The Food Bank of South Central Michigan, which supplies 285 charities in eight counties, is facing a growing demand for its services. "This is far worse in the respect that it's people who never expected to show up at a pantry," says executive director, Bob Randels. People who once sat on the food bank board of directors are now clients, he says.

Even two of the more stable places to work, Albion College and the Albion Public School System, have cut positions this year.

The November election is a rematch of the 2008 contest. Tim Walberg, the former nondenominational minister and incumbent who lost to Mr. Schauer in 2008 by a narrow margin, is this time zeroing in on unemployment. In an interview, he said economic growth must be measured by "people having jobs." At town hall meetings and public events he argues that Democrats haven't generated jobs in the district and are inhibiting manufacturers from competing against foreign interests by strangling them with regulation. Mr. Walberg said the Republican strategy of holding up the extension of unemployment benefits was risky, but believes that voters understand that "stop-gap measures" being pushed by Democrats only "prolong the pain."

To Mr. Schauer, the first Democrat to hold the traditionally Republican seat in 16 years, "job creation is priorities one through 10."

In addition to a General Motors assembly plant here that is adding shifts, one of the local success stories Mr. Schauer touts is Jackson-based RTD Manufacturing Inc., which he said was saved by the stimulus. The company received $100,000 government loan that helped it win a defense contract to produce brackets for military vehicles. The work force at the company has nearly tripled, says company vice president Steve Artz.

"I don't support some of his political positions but when we're talking just jobs, I don't think there's anybody better than him," says Mr. Artz.

Harry Bonner, Sr., of Albion, executive director of Minority Program Services Inc. and an appointed member of the state's Council for Labor and Economic Growth, says Mr. Schauer works hard. But that's not enough.

"The question many folks have is, 'Okay Mark Schauer, show me how I'm going to get part of the cake,'" he says. "I'm losing my job, losing my home and you haven't shown me how any of the things you are doing are going to help me and save my home."

There isn't yet any independent polling on the race. The most recent tally was an internal poll conducted in January on behalf of the Walberg campaign that showed the former congressman leading Mr. Schauer 46% to 37%.

One of the busiest places in Albion is Michigan Works!—a work force development office that provides services for job seekers and employers. The facility has seen a demographic shift, says Heather Frederick, one of the counselors. Job placements have dropped from up to 40 a month a year ago to about a dozen. At the same time the average age of clients has risen from the 20s to the late 30s and early 40s, "people who have worked their entire lives and now need help," Ms. Frederick says.

It is early in the morning but the building is full. Ms. Jones, who supported the Democratic slate in 2008, scrolls through job postings on a computer terminal. The mother of two now lives in public housing and is receiving $403-a-month public cash assistance while she waits for employment. "My perception is not much is happening in Washington, D.C., in terms of job creation. Let us actually see something," she says.

One interview, for a job at the Michigan secretary of state's branch office, recently fell through simply because Ms. Jones couldn't get there. She has no car and there is no local public transportation. She was counting on her employment program to give her a ride. But the interview site in Kalamazoo, more than 50 miles away, is beyond the program limit. She says she's trying to reschedule.

Susan Kruger, 51, is living on $1,300-a-month unemployment—well below the $41,000 a year she earned as a librarian before she lost her job in October. It's the first time she has been without a job in a library since she was 16. "I never thought I'd be out of work and I sure never thought I'd be out of work this long," she says.

She starts two part time jobs in September, substitute teaching and working at a Jackson library. Neither comes with benefits but she hopes they allow her to get off unemployment "at least for now. We have to be hopeful."

Ms. Kruger says she doesn't blame Mr. Schauer for her difficulties, but thinks others will. "People are going to hold somebody responsible, whether it's the president of the United States or the incumbent Democrat," she says. "People are scared."

Gerald Simpson, 57, voted for Mr. Schauer in 2008, but isn't sure he'll do so again. The Battle Creek Public Schools behavioral specialist lost his job in June 2009 when the position was eliminated. He has been living on unemployment and leaning on family members.

As he looks for jobs, he says he repeatedly hears: "Gerald, you're overqualified." The interviewers are "missing the point. I don't care about being overqualified. I will take a pay cut. I want a job."