This is a very worthwhile - and longish - article. It begins with a detailed analysis of the forces in the Islamic world that are driving the refugee crisis. And ends with an analysis of how the crisis is and will effect Europe.
Have fun.
From the Fiscal Times:
For the past two years, thousands of refugees from the Middle East, Africa and South Asia have risked their lives in dangerous boat trips across the Mediterranean to Greece, Italy and Spain. More than 6,300 of them have died. By last summer, Europe began to feel the crisis.
About one-third of the 710,000 illegal immigrants that have landed in Europe this year are Syrians. This number is much higher than the 282,000 immigrants that arrived in 2014. Afghans, Iraqis and others also entered Europe – with 220,000 headed to Germany.
The European Union and Germany in particular are facing a situation that none of them is ready to face. Unlike the United States, where immigration is a major part of the American success story, Europe does not have the long tradition of integration.
While available social services could last for many years, immigrants and refugees often live in areas that host other refugees. True integration within a society is hard to achieve. Since the European migration crisis started a few months ago, inter-European relations have been damaged.
The landmark Schengen Agreement that created a border-less Europe now appears passé. Several European countries have built border structures to stop the flow of refugees. Others have closed their borders, forcing the refugees to change their routs to Germany and Sweden.
"If we don't find a solution today, if we don't do everything we can today, then it is the end of the European Union as such," Slovenia Prime Minister Miro Cerar told reporters. Sixty-thousand refugees crossed Slovenia in the last few weeks.
... But what if the current trend continues or worsens? In September, 170,000 illegal immigrants entered the E.U. What if the 710,000 immigrants so far in 2015 become 1.5 million by the end of the year, as many predict? The 170,000 refugees in September were a slight decrease from 190,000 in August. But this trend was reversed last week when 50,000 refugees entered Greece, breaking all past records.
A slowing in the E.U.'s recovery from its worst unemployment crisis and weaker German economic growth could be the outcome of the migration crisis. Combined with the slowing Chinese economy, the European migration crisis could endanger the fragile recovery in the U.S. following the 2008 financial crisis.
ISIS has become a terror hurricane, attracting tens of thousands of extremists across the globe, at the same time destroying the fabric of countries, societies and cultures. It has emerged as the most dangerous hub of intolerance and hate since the Nazis.
New data has shown that the U.S.-led campaign has failed to weaken ISIS, let alone crush it. As many as 30,000 foreign fighters joined the group, according to the CIA. ISIS is taking in about $50 million a month by selling oil, and has launched more than 1,000 attacks between June 1 and September 30, killing about 3,000 people around the world, according to HIS Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Center. This is a 40 percent increase from the previous three months.
Finally, a report from a House taskforce on homeland security said that ISIS has inspired or directed 60 terror plots in the West, including in the U.S., according to a report by the House committee on homeland security.
The resurgence of ISIS and the Taliban in Afghanistan, the bankruptcy of the Iraqi government, the Russian direct military involvement in Syria, the rise of al-Qaeda amidst the continuous war in Yemen, the exploitation and ongoing suppression of the Muslim Brotherhood by ISIS in Egypt, and the expansion of ISIS amid the Libyan civil war are all parts of a lost Arab spring in the Middle East. This may be the darkest part of President Obama's foreign affairs record. These crises will be the inheritance of the next American president in January 2017.
And the Middle East is not the only part of the world that is experiencing increasing instability and driving refugees to Europe. Other hot spots include:
- The desperate situation in Somalia where ISIS issued four propaganda videos to urge the Shabab militia to switch alliance from al-Qaeda.
- Ongoing war in Darfur region in Sudan.
- War with Boko Haram, ISIS's African franchise in Nigeria where President Obama has sent 300 US soldiers.
- Poverty in Bangladesh amid the emergence of ISIS.
- The Taliban insurgency in Pakistan.
- Resumption of Turkey's war against the Kurdish rebels.
As moderate Muslims and other groups migrate to Europe, the Middle East loses the human capital --potentially talented men and, yes, women -- necessary to build modern economies and become part of a global society.
- The bad economic situation in Albania and Kosovo.
Whatever the real goals of the Islamic State, one inevitable result of their actions, should they prevail, will be isolation.
Europe, already struggling to accept Muslims and other immigrants into their societies, will have an enormous challenge welcoming a new influx of Muslim refugees.
According to recent reports, there is increasing conflict between citizens and newly arrived immigrants in Germany, the country of choice for many refugees.
Sweden has another problem. It’s one of the most generous countries in terms of its immigration policies offering cash and social services to all newcomers. But Sweden has also seen the rise of criminal gangs and more violent crime in ethnic areas.
As a result, the country is becoming less tolerant racially. In a recent poll, 58 percent of Swedes believe there’s too much immigration. Ominously, 48 percent of immigrants don’t work. Maybe that’s why Denmark is discouraging new immigrants.
France and England have their own issues. The terror attack on the employees of Charlie Hebdo, which killed 12, exposed a fault line in France’s national security. Like Sweden, Britain has a rape problem that includes exploitation of children. And like Germany, there are Muslim areas where many crimes go unreported.Europe has never truly integrated its immigrants. You’re French or you’re not; you’re British or you’re not, and so on.
As a result, outsiders are marginalized, whether they’re guest workers in Germany or refugees in France. This new group immigrants could tip the balance on multiple levels—for jobs, for social welfare resources, for housing and food, and ultimately for safety.
If that happens, what is now just a small tear in the social fabric could rip Europe apart.
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