Whenever Any Form of Government Becomes Destructive To These Ends,
It Is The Right of the People to Alter Or To Abolish It,
And To Institute New Government


Thursday, October 06, 2016

LA Times Bureau Chief Defends Poll: We Got “President Obama’s Reelection Margin Right”

If you go back over the last few weeks, or months of Real Clear Politics Polling reports (which brings together all major polling numbers and then averages them out), you will see that the LA Times/USC poll has consistently placed Trump ahead of Clinton, even when other polls show Trump falling perilously behind.

Here, the Bureau Chief of the LA Times explains his methodology and defends his numbers:

David Lauter: It’s a balanced mix weighted to be representative of the population as a whole… 
Megyn Kelly: How confident are you because of course your poll is an outlier? 
David Lauter: Well, of course, we don’t have a crystal ball so you never really know. But this group at USC that is doing a poll with us they did the same technique four years ago and they produced a very accurate poll. They were one of the only polls that got President Obama’s reelection margin right. So we think they’re doing a good job.
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posted by Pastorius at permanent link#


Blogger Always On Watch said...

I've already sent in my absentee ballot.

I never vote according to what the polls show anyway.

Besides, what more can I do that I haven't already done?

It will come down to this: the Clinton Political Machine is powerful enough to win this election -- by hook or by crook -- or the machine is not that powerful.

Thursday, October 06, 2016 1:50:00 pm  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

UKMetro: Steven Woolfe left fighting for life after being punched during UKIP meeting image The leading candidate is thought to be conscious after collapsing while
on a walk way outside a chamber of the European Parliament in Strasbourg
following an argument with another MEP – understood to be Mike Hookem.

Thursday, October 06, 2016 2:32:00 pm  
Anonymous Anonymous said...


Image illustrates Guccifer/Clinton Foundation/TARP leak in a nutshell

Thursday, October 06, 2016 6:36:00 pm  
Anonymous thedeplorableraven said...

The question is which candidate has enthusiasm. Are people enthusiastic for Hitlery? Are the Deplorables on Trump's side enthusiastic?

Why are most pollster assuming Dem enthusiasm on the levels of 08 and sometimes exceeding those levels? Brexit pollsters also miscalculated (or knowingly tried to deceive the people) the amount of enthusiasm for Stay and we ended up with almost all polls being off by about 6-7 points. Same with Colombia where the support for a deal with the commies was supposed to get the support of 60% of Colombians yet the no vote won in the end.

No one knows...not a single person, not a single pollster knows what is really going to happen Nov 8. The media polls are usually just around to spin a story. And they story they've been wanting to spin for the last year or so is that "Trump is OVAH!!" Couple of months ago the race was "totally over" but now we're back to this being a tight race.

Polls right now are just being used to make Trump supporters feel less enthusiastic. That is all they exist for. They don't actually matter.

I predicted that no matter what happens during the first debate almost all mainstream polls are going to show that "Hillary not only stopped Trump's momentum but reversed it in her favor." Magically right before the debate, polls started showing Trump moving up, right after he moved down and Hitlery moved up. This is not how real people function. Especially since HItlery miserably failed to attract any Independents at all because of her creepy and "I'm the elite" performance during the debate.

The real poll is Nov 8 and Hitlery will win if people supporting Trump don't stop screwing around. What has to be done is the polls need to be ignored and enthusiasm kept alive. Hard thing to do but there's no alternative.

Thursday, October 06, 2016 9:09:00 pm  

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