Saudi Plans to Keep Riyal Pegged to the Dollar, Adviser Says
Canada's Dollar Nears Parity on U.S. Weakness, Commodity Surge
China threatens 'nuclear option' of dollar sales
Oil prices jump above $82 a barrel
Spot gold is approaching a near 28-year high of $730 an ounce troy
For many years no matter what happened on this planet the dollar was the refuge. During the Cuban Missile crisis when nuclear annihilation threatened the planet, the dollar was the refuge. During the Berlin Airlift the dollar was the refuge. When tanks rolled in Hungary and Czechoslovakia the dollar was the refuge.The day of 22 Gia Long Street, the dollar was the refuge. During the Clinton impeachment the dollar was the refuge. On 9/11 the dollar was the refuge.
But today the people whose job is it to preserve and expand capital are not so sure are they?
The reason for this is not the things George Bush has done.
The reason people whose professional expertise is the preservation and expansion of wealth have doubt in the dollar are the things George Bush has not done.
20 comments:
Can you imagine, for instance, if Microsoft were rumored to be having trouble with a competitor, and Bill Gates' stock answer for four straight annual reports was,
"All options are on the table."
What a fucking joke.
It's time to drop the hammer on Ahmedinejad.
In 2000, Louise Christian was a geologist from Dallas. He retired years ago from Mobil where he assessed new international ventures. He has full, intimate knowledge of the geology of the middle east., a unique qualification for a second career in exploration consultancy and map making. He sold maps of the region to Shell, ExxonMobil, Saudi Aramco. He also provided info to the United States Geological Survey of Iraq.
Existing maps of Iraq, after years of political isolation, were inadequate. Christians new, large scale maps formed the basis for USGS computer model of Iraq’s petroleum geology, that concluded that 45bn barrels of oil remained to be discovered.
In 2001, Christian was asked by USGS to produce larger scale, more detailed maps of Iraq.
Subsequently, in 2005, un-named sources confirmed that the maps produced were part funded by the CIA.
Several other “retired” oilmen regularly advise the CIA, particularly during the first gulf war, and currently. Many in the industry have a low opinion of USGS accuracy in resource estimates. They say the CIA would have been less interested in the USGS conclusions, than in the raw data. “The CIA has a small department of experts who know more about fossil fuels than the whole US Department of energy put together. They have done detailed, in house reservoir studies, for many, many major oilfields around the world, to help the US be prepared for the day when demand exceeds supply”.
In late 2004, Louis Christian was called by USGS and asked if he could prepare geological maps of Iran. In Jan, 2005, 2 months after Christian received the Iran maps request, the US journalist Seymour Hersch reported that US special forces had been reconnoitering targets in Iran since the summer of 2004.
Currently, for every barrel of oil we discover, we now consume three.
here
here
here
Iran is fully cognizant of US intentions, and this knowledge dictates Iran’s actions in Iraq.
OSB, a highly intelligent man, is probably also cognizant. This knowledge also probably serves as his motivation.
The state sponsored inflammation and international radicalisation of fundamentalist jihadis is probably one of the best methods of undermining and subverting western economies and oil intentions in the asymmetrical war that is, and will be, fought over peak oil. Unfortunately for Arab States it has given the west a highly effective argument for aggression against them, - how can we possible allow irrational states such as these to acquire weapons of mass destruction? A circular argument.
Iran, however, is not alone.
China has extremely significant contracts for the supply of oil, and gas, from Iran, and has invested heavily in the country. It is difficult to see China standing silently in the event of a US adventure in Iran.. China, similarly, is fully aware of nuclear technology transfers from North Korea to Iran, and, if not actively offering aid, is at the least, offering no resistance.
Arak heavy water plant in Iran is the key to plutonium creation for nuclear tipped missiles. Many engineering problems need to be overcome in a plutonium weapon. The states using Iran as a proxy have already solved these problems.
Natanz with its centrifuges enriches uranium. This is clumsy in terms of weaponisation. It may even be disinformation.
“Peak fish” is already years past
Increasing use of Maize, and other crops for production of bio fuels (ethanol eg), not withstanding Jatropha, will rapidly hasten “Peak Food”. Rich nations will purchase bio fuels for transport. Poor nations will starve. South Africa seems to be following in the footsteps of Zimbabwe with land sequestration on the horizon. This will further serve to hasten “Peak Food”.
Given that the US Administration has been aware of the above since at least the early ‘90s, and probably earlier, the total absence of any efforts, or legislation, to curtail the use of hydrocarbons, nor any meaningful efforts to develop alternative energy sources, are criminally obscene.
But don’t let criticism be confined to the US. Most governments of the world are aware of this situation., and their actions, or rather non actions, are equally criminally obscene.
We are merely nibbling at the edges of the problem, lacking the political will, and honesty, to tackle the issues.
On a roughly similar theme we come to Russia and Putin.
Russia has its bears flying again, although they could be classified as flying junk, and do not, in spite of press comment, represent a realistic threat.
The US has not been slow in the development of vastly superior conventional arms
here
Russia, and China must have looked aghast at these accomplishments, and this has accelerated their own developments.
Russia has developed MOABs, although the US was demonstrating these more than ten years ago, and will likely have vastly increased their power in the intervening period.. These are a crude cheap method of combating terrorism, and a crude answer to US “smart” weapons. They do not achieve one of the requirements of warfare, - territorial denial, that tactical nuclear weapons do.
The west offered Putin MOABs some time ago. Whether the current Russian MOABs result from that offer, is unclear. Putin’s actions in the global sphere do not currently, seem rational, viewed both from the west, and from the west’s partial view of Putin.
More information about the above can be found as follows.
here
here
here
And in the interests of fair comment, acknowledgments to "The Last Oil Shock", by David Strahan.
By now it must be obvious to all that this is the major reason that the west is suffering from massive, uncontrolled immigration from oil bearing states. This is the price that our rulers agreed to pay all those decades ago, in return for cheap oil, - their continued freedom to abuse their indigenous populations, to maintain their local hegemony, their corrupt standards of life. To say that only they are corrupt, as the west is doing, is to maintain an equal lie concerning the western government's treatment both of it's own populations, and the future treatment of other populations resulting from ongoing and future inevitable conflicts.
This is not the entire story however. Demographic trends have created in the west a future pensions crisis. Successive governments have treated pension provisions on a cash flow, "in and out" principle. This is fine when the working population is expanding, but when it contracts, KERBOOM. We have witnessed structural changes to taxation and property prices that have resulted in a large increase in female employment over the last decades. This has not been enough. Now we face increasing immigration.
The Government and senior civil servants have been criminally negligent in their failure, and absolute refusal to learn how "The City", our current lifeblood, actually works. What ever select committees have looked into it, they have approached with a pre-standing political agenda, that has precluded a learning process. Had they learned, then implemented a pensions system that used that knowledge, then the whole pensions area would be different.
We now witness, in terms of a global, feverish scramble to establish territorial rights, by whatever means, - contractual, mercantilism, or overt and covert aggression, of oil bearing territories. Despite our perception of ethics, governments are acting, whatever our views, in what they perceive to be our best interests.
That certain of us view these actions as particularly stupid, is in fact a reflection of limitations placed on governments perceptions of their own politically acceptable abilities and freedoms of action, based on their perceptions as to what is politically acceptable to us, the indigenes. Another circular argument, confounded and created by badly framed opinion polls. "Ask the wrong question..."
What to do?
What can insulate us from global catastrophe?
We see the elite scrambling to acquire absolute wealth. But HOW it is held makes a difference.
You, dear commenters, now know.
Well, yeah, I guess, now that you've taught us everything there is to know, huh?
Thanks a lot my pedantic prissy-penised friend.
Don't like it when reporting doesn't fit your world view, pastorius?
Get used to it.
There are more facets to it than your narrow perception.
No, actually I think your analysis is subtle and cogent. However, I think your final sentence is laughable. You have expressed your opinion. I agree with much of it. However, I don't think you are the final word on anything, as your final sentence seems to indicate that you think.
Maybe you just got carried away with your own rhetoric. If so, then I am sorry for making fun of you. It's not like I haven't done the same myself in the past.
By the way, a good question to ask yourself is, if everything you say in your post is absolutely true, which geopolitical entity would you like to see come out on top? China? Russia? The Middle Eastern States? Europe? America?
Who is more likely to use its influence to promote free markets and the progress of human rights?
I think it is clear that the United States, for all our deficiencies has a track record of improving the world. I don't know about you, but I don't see that as the track record of any of those other entities, including Europe.
By the way, here is an article I wrote sometime back which echoes many of the themes you stuck in your post:
http://ijpublicpolicy.blogspot.com/2005/08/should-we-destroy-ourselves.html
I think he just got carried away....as we all do....! Yep pretty much how I see the situation too, although being on Russia's door step I don't underestimate those backfires. The Russians build em ugly and tough...with long lives. I feel that flashpoint Mid East will ignite a stand off/possibly, insanely, war,with Russia/China...although China could bounce either way frankly. But yes, China has for years been securing Non Mideast oil and other resources for years. China, I think, Will be more cautious in acting (maybe ...just grab Taiwan...LOL)....rather than blindly following Russia into a situation probably made worst by Russian sabre rattling...
Weeeell, OK, delete my final sentence. You are correct. But no need for rudeness.
You ask a very complex question.
It would be easy to give a few "one-liners".
I've read your article linked to, - interesting.
I think everybody is underplaying the "peak oil", and "peak food" aspects, and these will make several nations think "it's now, or we go downhill from here", and become desperate.
I also think that many are missing the global financial movements, and the pressures they are creating. They tell a story. That is why I replied under that particular title.
Let me think. A cogent brief answer would be an impossibility.
As Arnie said, "I'll be back" :)
Ok, I do apologize for the rudeness. I have people come here so often who denounce me and the others here as mere fascists, Nazis, and ignoramuses that I get a bit defensive.
There is no doubt that economic forces are at play. And, as you point out, it all does seem to be coming to a head at the same time.
However, I think you underplay the role alternative energies will play in this. I also think you are being overly alarmist in your assessment of just how soon we will run out of oil.
First off, there is a tremendous amount of oil in Alaska, and there is a tremendous amount of oil (in shale form) in the Rocky Mountains. As far as I understand, there is as much oil in the Rockies as there has been in Saudi Arabia.
Here is a good book which I have read on the subject:
http://www.amazon.com/Bottomless-Well-Twilight-Virtue-Energy/dp/046503117X/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1/105-8120439-8195609?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1190513848&sr=1-1
Watcher 71,
I hope you are wrong, but I'm afraid you are right.
Pas, personally I think we should be treating oil like gold...not burning it. Inevitably petroleum is going to run out...it's not if...it's when....Ok maybe we can/have found other ways to power my car...fine. My concern is the other products we get from petroleum....eg plastics....no oil...no plastic....and we revert to the stone age. I am aware of experiments that have produced something close to plastic, without petroleum and bio degradable....but until we have the alternative perfected we need to really conserve what we have......and that is from an unashamed petrol head. Sure I want to drive my V12 'Attack Truck' that does 0-60 in like 3 seconds (LOL) .....but I want to not see the countryside turning to dessert as I drive past (LOL).....Coming to a head...sure is...and it needs to....the change the sets the tone for the next thousand years is almost upon us....2012 anyone?....When it does go off....It's gonna be in multiple locations at the same time....even the United states will not be able to cover them all....to overstretched....and as the only remaining Superpower left in the world, that I ally with,.... It is absolutely vital that the Nationalist(Imperialist?) Conservative Right is kept away from the internet (as all they tend to do is insult other nations....even allies...I'll fight alongside you....even for you.....but I'll never allow you to subjugate me...)....to enable the necessary consensus and alliance building that needs to take place. I think what we need is Pas for Prez!...This kind of Conservative I can deal with! LOL! ....But seriously you get the point..? Some serious questions about our military, society, culture and National identity have recently come up, here in the UK.... Questions I was posing 10 years ago....but still nice to see politicians finally starting to catch up... (or not)....So I think an evolution in thought...societal structure may be under way....The sheep need to awake from their comfortable slumber as they will shortly......Britain's property crash is now imminent....(there goes that house of cards!)....some speculate America is heading into depression...... the Muslims tell us that if we are good Christians we must convert to Islam........'and the band played on...'
Pardon my instrusion, BUT...biofuels, synfuels, all of which ends up in the tank to be burned in the current organic chemistry schema is to put it mildly...
BULLSHIT
STOPGAP
SHORTSIGHTED
The winner for the next 200-500 years gets out of that to post fossil fuel energies, and holds the technology inventions and licenses.
Now it might be that being responsible every 90 days to stockholders for a dividend puts XOM on a very shortsighted leash, and it might be that those govts they hang around feel they have to respond to that .. but it's a loser.
More and more nations scrambling for more and more dwindling resources, I assure you, will result in a too many rats in the cage solution. And then we won't need so much oil. We may need next to none.
And then we can climb right back up to where we are.
Every resource we have not used in a compulsory fashion elsewhere, should be going to post fossil fuel solutions. Why this is not so SHOULD be the leading political question of the time.
Solving this solves many other political problems.
They can all go suck eggs over there. Or they can live on a sheet of glass.
I really don't care.
Frankly, I wouldn't care if we DID TAKE THE OIL .. IF, IF IF we used that time it gave us to solve THAT problem.
The idea of true justice among nations is, as we can see from the 1922 Kellog Briand pact which outlawed war, the League of nations and the UN, a farce, which can't even rise to the level of joke.
In the end I'd rather see us with the oil than a bunch of people who think if they trigger a nuclear war a perfect being will come out of a well, or a 'royal' family who tells their crazy religious in laws they can export racist hate and permanent religious war as long as they don't bother the royals while they are en route to Monaco.
Watcher71,
Other than the idea of me for President, I do get your point.
:)
Good point about plastics. Yes, what will we come up with to replace those. Will we be forced to scavenge landfills to recycle plastics?
Possibly.
But really, I suggest you read that book, The Bottomless Well. It will make you think differently about energy.
A lot of what we were taught in school is wrong. I was in college in the early eighties. My professors swore to us that we were going to run out of oil by the early 90's. There are actually more known reserves of oil beneath the earth now than there were then.
What do you think of that?
Go west, my friend. The Rockies are filled with oil. Read about it. Here's a report from NPR (National Public Radio - a leftist radio network), which we conservatives over here in America lovingly refer to as National Palestinian Radio (for their unyielding bias in favor of the Palestinians over Israel). Consider the source, and consider the fact that everything I said is STILL admitted by them in this article:
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5424033
Alarmism on the energy front is pretty passe as far as I am concerned.
The question about oil is not how much is there, but how much are we willing to pay?
Considering the laws of the free market, when we pay more, that only increases capital. In other words, we pay more, the economy expands, more people make more money.
That's the way the free market works.
Epa,
I agree with what you say. The winner for the next 200-500 years will be the one who invents and holds the patents on the new technoligies of energy.
Now, I'd like to recommend that you ALSO read the book The Bottomless Well. It is not only about oil. It is about the progressive nature of energy.
I don't know if you have ever read anything by Ray Kurzweil, but human being have an amazing, and inveitable ability to come up with solutions to their problems when they need to.
In fact, the motion towards those solutions is already running, and it runs faster the closer we get to the problem coming to a head.
This kind of optimism is what drove Ronald Reagan to say, The ingenuity and creativity of the human mind is endless (not a verbatim quote).
Reagan believe, and I agree with him, that human beings can achieve whatever they can conceive, the only limits upon them being those of time and space. In other words, we have to use material, and we have to spend time. Other than that, you can look at the history of the human race, and it is evident that we have done whatever it was that we set out to do, given time and material resources.
And that process of progression keeps speeding up with the more knowledge and data we collect.
This is not utopianism, it is logic. For instance, observe Moore's Law. It is, in my opinion, an inevitability that computing power will continue to double every 1 1/2 to 2 years for the next hundred years, at the very least.
The things that we will accomplish because of this computing power are too amazing to even contemplate. I do a lot of reading on technology, and our future is too amazing to even behold. And, it is inevitable. Or, as fellow IBA blogger Al Fin says, we have to make sure we defeat the medieval Islamofascists so that they don't deter us from reaching the Next Level.
By the way, sorry for the rambling nature of this comment, but the other day, I had an appointment in Simi Valley. I was early, so I trekked on over to the Reagan Library, and they were selling replicas of his desk, and of the things on his desk, in the Gift Shop.
The thing that stuck out to me is that Reagan had a leather frame sitting on his desk emblazoned with four simple words,
"It Can Be Done."
If you know Reagan's history, the nights he stayed up in the fifties, under threat of death from communist union officials, with a gun in his hands, sweating out his mortality, losing his wife Jane who could not understand why he had gone from Actor to politician, formulating his plan to overthrow the Soviet Union, and making it happen thirty years later, then you will know that Reagan was right,
"It Can Be Done."
My point in this tangent is there is no reason for pessimism when it comes to economics, or energy, or even food.
I will use another comment to discuss Anonymous' concern about Peak Food.
a weak dollar is not all bad: it helps exporters.
many in the EU are hurt by a strong euro.
i have posts with links at my blog.
it is stupid to describe currency fluctuations in the marketplace as all bad or all good.
Pas,Epa...great comments above! Will get back on them shortly.....but I remember awhile back you wanted suggestions to maintain/improve traffic to the site....? Well over at REDNECK the blog has a system of e-mail notification when a comment is added to yours.....this is a really good idea as We often get a good exchange of views/idea's/opinions on a topic going....and I often want to pursue it further...but I lose track because of the amount high quality, balanced, relevant and informative post's that come along....in short I often miss what you guys have to say....any chance of doing that here?
Watcher 71,
Do you know how to set that up?
I have never heard of that.
I am always notified when comments come in, but I don't know how to notify others.
Re alternative energy....You all know aswell as I do that the technology already exists...'so why isn't it being rolled out then!?' you ask.....well I can speculate, and provide motivations but the answer is I don't know. But at the risk of sounding like a complete nutter, what I have seen in the skies is either ET or (most likely break through technology prob black), so I know that 'What is possible' and what we 'are actually capable of doing' are well in advance of what is in the public realm. All I say is hurry up and give me my own mini safe fusion reactor.....to run my car and house!
Watcher 71,
You ask: Re alternative energy....You all know aswell as I do that the technology already exists...'so why isn't it being rolled out then!?' you ask.....
I say: Well, one answer would be that oil is cheap enough to drive the economy, without collapsing it.
Another answer is that the alternative energies require retrofitting, and a lot of other exhorbitant expenses.
Another answer is, the alternative technologies are not that far along yet.
Remember, Stealth bombers may exist, but they cost $750 million a piece.
Post a Comment