The intelligence is so specific and believable that it would seem it is actionable.
The Sunday Times of London is reporting that Israel has specific intelligence on an Iranian nuclear weapon "on a par" with the intelligence that led it to discover and destroy a Syrian nuclear reactor last September. The report is part of a larger report on the visit of the head of Britain's MI6 to Israel for a strategic dialogue.
There is mounting concern in Israel that Iran’s nuclear capability may be
far more advanced than was recognised in a declassified assessment by the US
National Intelligence Estimate last December, which concluded that Iran had
halted its nuclear weapons development programme in 2003 in response to
international pressure.
One source claimed the new information was on a par with intelligence that
led Israel to discover and then destroy a partly constructed nuclear reactor in
Syria last September.
Israeli officials believe the US will revise its analysis of Iran’s
programme. “We expect the Americans to amend their report soon,” a high-ranking
military officer said last week.Israel’s foreign minister, Tzipi Livni, briefed
Gordon Brown and David Miliband, the foreign secretary, on Israel’s findings
during talks on the Middle East in London last week.
Israeli intelligence officers, en route from Washington where they had been
outlining their latest information to American officials, joined Livni for the
briefing.
It is thought that if Israel were considering military action against Iran
over its nuclear programme, it would want to ensure it had diplomatic support in
London and Washington because of the danger of triggering a wider Middle East
conflict.
“We’re doing a lot of things about Iran,” Ehud Barak, Israel’s defence
minister, said last week. “We say we shouldn’t rule out any option. Not ruling
out options means action, but the worst thing to do at the moment is to talk
[about it].” Whitehall officials said Scarlett’s visit was “routine”.
Ordinarily I would have dismissed this report with the caveat that it was written by the Times' often hysterical Jerusalem correspondent Uzi Mahnaimi. I'm not doing that this time because of another report that appeared in many places on Thursday and Friday.
Iran could be just months away from fully mastering nuclear technology,
Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz said on Thursday, citing intelligence
estimates.
“The Iranians could cross the technological line within a relatively short
time, within months, before the end of the year,” he told army radio.
“We have to prepare for that scenario,” said Mofaz, who was speaking while
on an official visit to the United States.
Mofaz is a former defense minister and former Chief of Staff of the IDF. I give him far more credibility than I would give Mahnaimi alone. But Mahnaimi's report fits in with Mofaz's warning. I believe it's for real this time.For those who wonder why the Iranian bill is at the top of this post, look closely and you will see the nuclear symbol in the background.
15 comments:
Y'know when I saw the TIMES this AM it struck me this is one of those ACTUAL inconvenient truths.
It's reality compels action, something the world abhors.
The world wants only nuisances.
This is not a nuisance.
WHO is ready in the American government for action?
Condi who hides the truth of the Syria/NoKo nukes from the American people so as not to disrupt negotiations with serial treaty violators?
Gates, who from the realist camp is only now becoming slightly nervous?
Bush who talked a big game about democracy but now is telling the world a peace between Israel, THE ONLY DEMOCRACY there and holocaust minimizers can be a reality by year's end?
In Israel, whose leader right now is contemplating return of the Golan for the promise that Syria will sit on Hizballah (even as they ran towards getting their own nukes), the cat's paw of their economic benefactor, Iran, whose run towards apocalyptic weapons to euthanize the jews for god is the very heart of this insanity?
We are not mentally or emotionally prepared for this fight.
The west is in a dreamstate, hoping against hope this is only a nuisance, and that we here in this little place, are alarmist crackpots, whose advice would needlessly kill ten of thousands at a minimum.
This doesn't surprise me. Considering their track record and obvious need to keep their eyes wide open.
Big boom and utter chaos to follow.
My inner radar has been pinging for awhile. The ME is about to "pop".
Question:
I have to betray my ignorance here. If you hit a nuclear bomb with a bomb, does the nuke go off?
No one knows for sure.... the US has theorized fratricide in a first strike using multiple weapons to strike one target where the intense burst of radiation actually deactivates the second weapon's triggering sequence.
I don't know anything about nukes myself, but after watching the Discovery channel for a gazillion years, I know that bombs need some sort of "device" to set them off. So, I don't think it would. Unless Iran has set it up to specifically explode in that event.
But, it would send the bad shit into the air.
Any nuclear physicists around here to explain this better?
Well, I haven't heard any reports of radiation being sent into the air by the Syrian attack.
It sounds like this is a big shrug and the only way we're going to find out is to attack Iran.
With regards to any radiation contamination after the Syrians explosion; since Syria immediately covered up the site and nobody has been allowed there, it's hard to say.
Fasten your seat belts. Something has to be the trigger that sets things off and this may be it, since the Israelis are usually the only ones with the stones to act on the evidence. I would not put it past Ahmadhimmijerker to set things up for the results to be the worst imaginable. If he truly believes that world chaos is required for the return of the Mahdhi, what other course of action is consistent with that?
RRA,
Good point. I hadn't thought of it from his perspective. I hope you're wrong.
RRA,
Good point. I hadn't thought of it from his perspective. I hope you're wrong.
Christine,
Even if they covered it up, I think our satellites would have picked up the radiation. Maybe intelligence did pick up radiation and didn't report it.
Are there such secrets anymore in these days of the hyper-reality of the media?
Most observers seem to discount the idea that Ahmadinejad could really be pursuing an apocalyptic course of action and assume that he's just another politician manipulating Iran's nuclear program for maximum effect. Even Hitler didn't try to order the Gotterdammerung of Europe until the war was lost. So they assume that the Dwarf's concept of self-preservation is the same as that of sane people. That's a very dangerous assumption to make. (Should be interesting to observe whether he intends to live to see the Mahdi's return with his own eyes, though.)
The sun's coming out. I'm going to go do the dishes and take a long walk, not necessarily in that order.
I sorry, but when you show obscene pictures, could you warn us first.
Pastorius said...
Question: I have to betray my ignorance here. If you hit a nuclear bomb with a bomb, does the nuke go off?
Personally, I don't have a clue. But - with all the uncertainty about the number of well concealed nuclear sites in Iran, one would imagine it would take only one attempt at taking out the known sites to tease out the location of any others as they prepare for retaliation.
I doubt Iran/Pakistan/and any other nuclear armed muslim nation has the wear-with-all to challenge the west ---- at least not quite yet.
Damien,
What do you mean? The Mohammed porking picture?
Be warned up ahead of time: This is an occasionally obscene website.
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