Wednesday, February 11, 2009

1930s Redeux About to Be Completed

My blog, the Gathering Storm, has as its theme the similarities between the 1930s and today. With an enemy having success using intimidation, infiltration and disinformation to achieve the world-wide institution of the Caliphate, complete with appeasers and apologists hurrying to support the Islamist’s goals, and now the worldwide economic meltdown now in place, we need only a missing piece to complete the 1930s scenario. 

That missing piece is a world war. 

It’s coming. Soon. And we can not prevent it. That is my belief. I don’t like it but as far as I can see, it’s a fact. 

The explosive mix of Islamic boldness and progress towards dhimmifying the non-Muslim world, Islamic appeasement, media ignorance, and the crippling of the free world’s economic system, needs only a flash point to ignite the next world-wide conflagration.   

The question is what will that flash point be? Here’s my opinion. 

If you look at the 1930s, WWII really began in 1931 with the invasion of Manchuria. At the time, it was called an ‘incident’.  It took 10 years for the USA to enter the struggle and complete the start of WWII. 

The Manchuria Incident was a potential flashpoint but was ignored by the free world who did not want to enter into another bloody world war. So the League of Nations chastised Japan and ordered them to leave Manchuria

Their response? The Japanese delegation, defying world opinion, withdrew from the League of Nations Assembly after the assembly had adopted a report blaming Japan for events in Manchuria

There were other flash points, political and military throughout the 1930s – Germany occupying the Rhineland, Italy invading Ethiopia, the German occupation of Austria and the Sudetenland, Japan’s invasion of China – none of which prompted the free world to act until Germany invaded Poland bringing France and Great Britain to war and Pearl Harbor bringing America into the war. 

So what would be the possible flash points for the next world war? 

Europe: A civil war. 

Europe is quickly coming under the thumb of political Islam.  The Euro leadership and Euro institutions are conceding Europe’s culture to Islam. What Muslims in Europe will not get through the political and institutional process, they will eventually take through violent intimidation.  The average European will not voluntarily submit to Islam and Sharia Law. Violence will ensue between right wing elements supported by moderate citizens to take back their culture. This could be a flash point if the Middle East oil suppliers decide to support their Muslim brethren in Europe-which of course they will- by withholding oil to Europe. Europe will not willingly freeze in the dark and the EU will take action to reopen the supply by occupying the oil fields.  China, and perhaps even India, in desperate need of oil, will take military action to prevent Europe’s take over of the oil fields. Russia will not allow Europe to take control of the oil market and will take military action against Europe

The Middle East. Nuclear Exchange. 

The conventional struggle between Israel and the Middle East countries can go on for years. But when Iran or some other Islamic country in the area can deploy nuclear weapons, the hate that brews in the region will reach the boiling point and either through deliberate or miscalculation, a nuclear exchange between Israel and those countries will effectively shut down oil production in the Middle East. The exchange will cripple the oil producing countries there and force Europe to occupy the oil fields to restart the supply. Again, China, and perhaps even India, will take military action to prevent Europe’s take over of the oil fields. Russia will not allow Europe to take control of the oil market and will take military action against Europe

South Central Asia: Resurgence of Al Qaeda. 

The war in Afghanistan and the failed state of Pakistan would most probably lead to a necessary invasion of the subcontinent through India to rid the resurgence of Al Qaeda and the establishment of a Taliban like State from which terrorist attacks can be launched against the West.  These continuous terror attacks will force India, Europe and the USA into a military invasion of Pakistan and maintain through force an Afghan and Pakistan government that will force the Taliban and Al Qaeda out of the countries.  The Islamic countries in the Middle East will use the oil weapon again to support their Muslim brethren’s struggle. China will take military action to prevent Europe’s take over of the oil fields. Russia will not allow the West to take control of the oil market and will take military action against Europe

A point. I’m talking war here. Not the pansy ass military rules of engagement that our armed forces have been struggling under. When national survival is clear and present, political correctness and the foolishness of multiculturalism will be wiped quickly from the battlefield. 

And what of the US? If and how will we be drawn in and complete the world war? 

Except for the South Central Asia scenario, would we be drawn into the world war? We could claim neutrality. We can tighten our belts and live off our own domestic oil supply by opening unlimited drilling. But with our NATO commitments, we would have to support Europe militarily. 

The US will be drawn into the world war and the supply of oil will be the catalyst.  That’s the bad news. Is there any good news? No. But there is an observation. A war, just as it did in 1941, will pull us out of the severe economic downtown that many believe will continue for years due to the current Administration policies.

13 comments:

Pastorius said...

And, of course, unlimited drilling would take several years to build, and to begin having an effect on our economy.

That means, were we to be drawn into the war in a limited way, even tightening our belts would not help those of us at home, because the military would need the oil.

That being said, one wonders if Mexico, Canada, and the US could hunker down and make agreements to supply each other the materials we would need for a policy of isolationism.

midnight rider said...

Often there's alot to be said for isolationism. However I don't see us easily abandoning Israel (except under Obama) nor should we in the face of an existential threat. And, too, I doubt we would let Russia (except under Obama) take control of Europe. And, once it starts, I have a hard time seeing how any nuclear exchange between anyone would remain limited. Once the missiles start flying, everyone's going to want in just to protect themselves. Almost a use it or lose it scenario.

I agree with WC & have been saying the same for a long time. It's coming, it's unavoidable. It's going to be very bad. It is only the degree of "very" that remains to be decided.

WC said...

Pasto

That begs the question of course - if we were off the middle eats oil tit we wouldn't be in the position of being forced into a world war.

If North America saw the threat of Islam as it played out in my first scenario, maybe they would hunker down with us to make sure what happened in Europe didn't happen in this hemisphere.

Pastorius said...

You are assuming the enemy can be stopped in it's tracks without the help of the United States, and you are also, apparently, assuming that Europe is not important to the survival of the West.

midnight rider said...

Here's a hypothetical for you. With the current dissatisfaction between groups in the U.S. could not a civil war or very nasty civil uprising happen here? What would that look like and don't you think Islam would step in to exploit that void? Could that not be one of their very goals now?

Unknown said...

I agree with anonymous. Any conflict with an Islamic nation by the EU would cause your European civil war scenario. Increased Islamic immigration to the US could eventually put us in the same situation. But our wide geography and dispersed muslim population mitigates this danger. We are more likely to see domestic terrorism without retaliation.

A quick exchange of nukes between Israel and Iran would not necessarily cause either civil war in Europe. And Europe is now too cowardly to try any intervention in a Muslim country no matter how injured. Expect a slow simmer and do not count on a flashpoint from them.

The most likely flashpoint would be the US tangling with a muslim nation and European muslims getting out of control. This would take a few years as they do not feel that powerful yet. Again, this will be mitigated by the fact that they will not have the guts to be our allies in such a situation.

BTW, Mexico has not backed us in wars. It now cries over how much it helped us with the Braceros program and how we owe it. That program had us importing Mexican laborers while our men went and fought Hitler. Don't expect much love or help.

BTW, BTW has anyone here not seen "The Siege?" Terrorism by muslims in America brings on martial law. Wow what a flick. Lets hope it is not prophetic.

Nice prompt AOW!!!

midnight rider said...

C-John -- The Siege is a good movie (& Bruce Willis is on our side to boot). That scenario is one I worry about. Especially if we have numerous small scale attacks shopping malls, churches, movie theaters etc. Or a big one like the loss of Manhattan.

I thik a nuke exchange between Iran & Israel could easily get out of bounds, especially if Iran looks to lose (hopefully) and Russia steps in. I see that as a quicker flashpoint, especially with an Obama administration, than the U.S. mixing it up with a Muslim nation.

Unless something very big and nasty happens here. But even then, with an Obama administration. . .

WC said...

We're shuffling with an unknown deck of cards. Shuffle them one way and we get a certain hand (flash point). Shuffle them another way and we get a different hand.

What ever the hand - it will not be pretty.

midnight rider said...

WC -- agreed. Watch wait and be ready. The rest is all an exercise (worthy one) until then.

Anonymous said...

you forgot chavez and the like...

Anonymous said...

in a conflict that is as out of control as you suggest, there will no longer be any rules. only survival.

and I dont see europe doing any of the invading you describe becuase they have invested no real money in any true military machines. also they dont have the manpower, they havent been breeding enough for that. I also dont see any strength of character left in them to make and carry out the hard choices.

what we are witnessing is something that has gone one for milenia but we cant see it from the forest thru the trees.

stronger tribes displacing or replacing weaker tribes from thier land.

who owned the british isles before the normans? the saxons, before them? the celts.

the huns displaced tribes the vandals displaced tribes the visgoths displaced tribes, the visgoths were themselves displaced. not at all in that order im just throwing out examples


if the europeans dont have the stomach to beleive their culture is worth saving and insist that outsiders adopt it or get the fuck out, they will be displaced.

many brits are going to canada, australia and the U.S. when it gets bad enough that trickle will become a torrent. then the muslims will be left with it, and the converts or dhimmis.

Anonymous said...

My vote is for the nuke exchange in the ME and the "rumcrook" scenario in Europe following.

And, a little bit OT, but I see with a disheartening clarity I did not have six months ago, how the Shoah happened - even if most Germans (and I know it is debatable) would have opposed it.

If the bad guys control the government, the media, the public schools, the "health care system", the major corporations and the universities, genocide could be happening two provinces over and the average guy might not know it.

We can't trust any mass media outlet anymore. Just propoganda and "bread and circuses".

I "outed" myself tonight to a dear friend, who accused me of "overreacting" to the threats to our freedom from various and sundry. I told her that her ignorance did not make me a wacko. She was pissed, because she is busy with a career, etc. and tries to keep iformed by reading the WSJ, the FT, and yes, she still takes the NY Slimes.

But when I pointed out to her how scary it was that none of those outlets were reporting on, for instance, the thuggery threatened by a "lord" in London, she got it.

I still am fighting, because I cannot capitulate to evil, but boy, it is really a David and Goliath battle, isn't it?


Ro

Anonymous said...

its scary. it may come to be that it will take losing a western nation to islam, and the subsequent civil war mass murder and displacement of any diehard westerners left, for other westerners in other nations to wake up. once the liberal beuracrats who have been pushing for this cultural suicide are releived of the responsibility to breath by the tender mercies of islam taking charge the pucker factor in other nations of the west may take hold and the will to self preservation may re-assert itself without being accompanied by apologies