Netanyahu may settle for interim government until early election
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis
March 12, 2009, 11:38 AM (GMT+02:00)
Having failed to draw Kadima and Labor into a unity government, DEBKAfile's political sources report that Israel's prime minister-designate Binyamin Netanyahu is planning to settle for a provisional administration serving six months before calling another early election.
Loth to rest his government's stability on right-wing and religious parties (61 out of 120 Knesset members), Netanyahu prefers to take his chances on a new ballot. But he rejected the recommendation from of his close advisers to notify the president next week that he is throwing in the sponge in the belief that he can use the extra six months to good advantage.
His main consideration is that Israel expects to be embroiled in a major military confrontation in the next few months with Iran, Hamas or Hizballah – or all three at once – a compelling scenario for a national emergency government against which Kadima and Labor will find it hard to hold out.
With this eventuality in mind, the Likud leader keeping the senior portfolios of security, treasury and justice open for members of those two parties or deposited with Likud ministers who will step aside and make way for them in an emergency.
A prominent example of this tactic is the new Likud legislator, the former chief of staff Moshe Yaalon. He is penciled in for defense in the interim administration on the understanding that if Labor joins, he will step down and accept the No. 2 position. Uri Yogev, a former treasury official, likewise expects to stand down for a Labor or Kadima candidate in finance.
Netanyahu is not waiting for a war emergency; he is quietly pursuing Labor and Kadima in informal conversations with defense minister Ehud Barak of Labor and Kadima's Shaul Mofaz and Tzahi Hanegbi.
His offer of the foreign ministry to Israel Beteinu's controversial leader Avigdor Lieberman is not yet signed and sealed. The prime minister-designate calculates that if the ongoing police probe into his financial affairs culminates in an indictment, Lieberman will have to withdraw, but his party will continue to support the government.
Lieberman's exit will ease the path of Kadima and Labor to government.
Netanyahu closest circle of advisers, our political sources report, consists of his wife, Sara Netanyahu, the lawyer-politician and former justice minister, Yaacov Neeman and Likud lawmakers Reuven Rivlin, Gideon Saar and Gilead Erdan.
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Netanyahu Expects War With Iran Within A Few Months
I heard radio host Hugh Hewitt say the same thing yesterday. Hugh is a moderate. Debka (the source of this story) is often referred to as being an inconsistent news source which often acts as a disinformation site.
However, in this case, I believe they may have it absolutely right.
I believe Israel's coming war with Iran is the "test" which Biden referred to.
From Debka (Thanks to Michael):
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22 comments:
We'll soon find out and Netanyahu was the signal to Iran to cut the crap and instead they pick up the pace.
"I believe Israel's coming war with Iran is the "test" which Biden referred to."
This could be one of the few times Biden speaks the truth...
I do not believe a war could ever have been avoided.
That being the case the sooner the dance starts the better for our entire side
The target however should not be the nuclear program.
The target should be the existence of the Iranian regime.
Imagine a world without the mullah regime, with Hizballah and HAMAS cut off from all funds.
I don't think Israel can achieve this.
Alone.
Chicago Ray,
You're right, this is one of the few times Biden has ever spoken the truth.
It's a very interesting note of history that Obama used Biden to deliver that message.
I wonder why that is.
It's almost Shakespearian, if you think about it. Obama used a demented, pre-Alzheimer's, loose cannon to deliver one of the most important messages in the history of Western Civilization.
It's almost Biblical.
Or perhaps, it is Biblical.
Epa,
What do you mean, you don't think Israel can do it alone?
"I wonder why that is."
Knowing Obama as the blameless wuss from Kenya that he is, it's so he can somehow blame pressure from Scranton Joe and Her Thighness if it all goes bad perhaps Pastorius?...
As we know from Granny no one is safe from the underside of Obama's bus....
"The target should be the existence of the Iranian regime."
Start with all the Mullah's complexes and go as far as their public wants after those strikes would be my call or hope...
Israel might be able to damage the Iranian nuclear program ..MIGHT..significantly..if they are willing to sustain the kind of losses a campaign will incur.
However, are they capable of STRATEGIC victory? By that I mean the end of the mullah Khomeinist regime? Can they so damage the infrastructure of Iran that the pernicious regime will be destroyed by the Iranian people themselves. There will never be a 'friendly' regime there, but the real issue is the end of the aggressive genocidal racism since 1979, and anti-american satanism.
Every poll shows the Iranian people do not hate americans, they ADMIRE our freedoms.
Is Israel capable of attacking Iran in this way alone?
Is a tactical gamble against Natanz-Arak and whatever warranted as long as that regime is there in Iran to refund HAMAS-Hizballah after what will CERTAINLY be a regional war?
Are the Israelis even certain Obama would resupply them? If they are not (and I certainly wouldn't plan on it) what plans have they already made?
Because of these kinds of considerations, If it was me, I'd go WHOLE HOG if I was going to initiate actions.
Sustained attacks against those targets which will completely cripple the entire Iranian regime. If they survive the regime should be damaged for a generation ..across the board.. economically
..politically..
By ALL means.
That means taking out Iranian oil wells, and production.
Think of the fallout even from a limited attack on Natanz.
Iran attacks tankers, Abqaiq, attempts to close Hormuz, showers missiles on US forces, uses Kilos to attack our fleet .... or do they just go all out with Shahab-3's against Israel and attempt to keep us out of it?
Either way if Israel is going to attack Iran, given the worldwide anti jew frenzy at Gaza (when they were ACTUALLY BEING ATTACKED EVERY DAY) ... they are going to have NO FRIENDS.
Does it make any sense to take a chance on an attack unless you are ready to MAKE IT COUNT and attempt to go all the way.
A new middle east without Khomeinist Iran.
it's so he can somehow blame pressure from Scranton Joe and Her Thighness if it all goes bad perhaps Pastorius?... states Chicago Ray
BINGO
Hillary was alienated from her supposed inherited political base during the election cycle. That "reset" button gaff was no idle mistake. There is a stench of 'set up' for the coming failure and collapse. Irony is, Hillary was the most recently recorded tool to quote, "Never waste a good crisis". . .words that will come back to bite her.
Note to Obama . . .he will soon be cornered by not only his own choleric spouse . . .he should also beware the wrath of a Hillary scorned (she likely remembers her way around the dark corners of that residence.)
I really do not understand all the geopolitical nuances in the ME.
I am worried, however, that Israel is being sort of "goaded" into attacking Iran (for the benefit of the Saudis, the UAE, etc.) and then will be turned on by those very regimes.
I mean, just how strange is it that our government is blowing off the IAEA asssesment of Iran's nuke capability? Yet we get a steady drumbeat of reports on how "close" Iran is to having enough bomb-grade U-235? I dunno - something smells here. Everytime I read another report, either "yay" or "nay" about the amount of U, I get a strange sick feeling.
Also, where the hell is Iran getting all these centrifuges???
They are concentrating an isotope of U, for pete's sake - not spinning blood samples. These cannot be the kind of centrifuge you can order from Edmunds Scientific. The anti-proliferation laws USED to be rigidly enforced - especially the "dual-use" technology restrictions.
(I remember trying to do a deal for a capacitor factory in a developing nation - what a red-tape nightmare!)
And these restrictions are part of the international anti-proliferation treaties, by the way - not just a US law.
So, who is selling/giving them the centrifuges? Just askin'.
Ro
Pakistan, NoKo ...but they haven't needed to buy any P-2 centrifuges for awhile.
The key items are non-corrosive tubes for the conduct of UF6, and nearly perfect bearings (like the ones used in the high accuracy inertial guidance systems of MIRV'd missiles) so they can spin endlessly at high speed
We also have to recognize 3 items I keep repeating about U235 weapons..
1) In 1944 it took the USA with the crude technologies of the time 10 months to make enough U235 for a weapon
2) The weapons technology was so reliable we never bothered testing it (the alamagordo weapon test in July 1945 was plutonium)
3) Pakistan had a complete stockpile of weapons that they thought was so reliable THEY never bothered testing - by the time they did so for political reasons in 1998, not only did no one know the extent of the stockpile, no one had a clue if it was bombs, or missile warheads, or what.
Iran's behavior in their apparent pursuit of nukes is guaranteeing war. If they are pursuing electrical generation, their best bet would be wide open inspections, and Russian sourced Uranium.
Epa -
Thanks. Those bearings are exactly the type of item that are covered (or were, anyway), under the dual-use non-proliferation rules.
So much for non-prolif / sanctions.
Seems like all we have done is give them cover. And I don't just mean 0.
I cannot believe Israel is going to have to do this alone.
God help us.
Ro
There's no easy way for the Israeli air force to reach Iran and Israel is too small to fight a grinding, drawn-out war. It comes down to raining nukes down on Iran to eliminate the security threat. That nuclear holocaust won't be pretty but that's the way it is. The Mahdi cometh. It's the spark that will ignite civil wars all across the West.
Good grief.
Do any of you remember the Scientific American article - it was years ago - when they tried to model the fallout effects of a "limited" or "tactical" nuclear attack?
It was not pretty - although I now believe they had an agenda other than a purely scientific one!
In any case, if what Abu says is true (and exactly why would "civil wars ignite," anyway?), it is starting to feel like we are living in "On the Beach."
Ro
Look at the global violence in reaction to Israel's recent Gazan campaign that killed 1000-odd. Now imagine the scale of the violence when an Israeli nuke strike instantly incinerates millions of slaves of Allah. There'll be open attacks on Jews by slaves of Allah and their leftist anti-war allies, violent Islamic insurrections in Western countries, attacks on Western targets, etc., etc., that will incite brutal nativist retaliations.
OK - this is when the jihad goes completely "open" then.
Thanks.
Ro
That's what I've been expecting all these years. It's taken a lot more time than I thought to get here though. And now, we have a President I don't trust to run the war.
We could be in for a long, frightening ride.
Actually, civil wars have already begun, albeit low-grade. Any number of things will very quickly turn them into full-blown affairs. Given the demographic situation, it's far better to escalate now rather than later. Najistani has this in mind in his trying to get things to come to a head.
Nefarious lot,
Have you considered how many people will die if and when israel attack iran? Include the babies, children, women and old men? Nuclear technology is not the sole birth right of western countries. Well,murderous lot what if you are one of those gazan or iranian bombed by the IDF? And your whole family is wiped out..repent now.
Anonymous,
Would you prefer Iran attack Israel first? Or maybe in your mind, the Jews deserve to die.
Isreal has been extremely patient. Waiting for something to be done BEFORE Iran has the weapon to destroy Israel, which by the way is Iran's mission. Maybe you are not aware that Iran wants to "wipe Israel off the map".
Sometimes, evil regimes exist anonymous. Yes, they really do. And no, I am not talking about Bush here. Read about Hitler lately? Would he have had a right to have nuclear weapons? Ooh, the damage (fun for him) he could have done if he had one of those.
Stop smelling the flowers anonymous and start reading some books and blogs about the real, honest to God enemies out there. Not the made up one's, created by the "head in the sand" left.
Please, you disciple of One-Worldism, do not lecture us. Face facts and deal with things as they are, not what you would like them to be.
"Face facts and deal with things as they are"
Instead, I would rather advice to question everything that you "know", that you read and that you hear through your media and through those who sympathize with your world views.
> We are predominantly in an era of "war of information". This is a simple concept that we must never forget.
(In fact, I am highly suspicious that the never ending conflicts that we experience in the world are highly desirable by the few who basically own the world and who own the media that influences us so much. In other words, we might all be totally played for fools. But that's just a personal note.)
My experience - having lived in several countries, and having been exposed to the different medias, and having even visited the Middle East (yes, with my American passport! and my pasty white ass, and my wit), I personally would be ready to bet a lot of money that there are 'a lot' of things that you don't know about these subjects that would discredit your "knowledge" of "reality". Just a wild guess.
Last thing, I have seen and heard of so many myths started by the American media that are simply fire starters (war of information). They are often strategically crafted, and conveniently fit as simple explanations for everything (most of the time Americans have no real idea why so many people in the world are mad at them).
And then there are also those groups of haters who are the first to exploit these tensions and who find personal fulfillment in channeling their anger and lack of faith in these missions to tell "the facts" to their people (just like the Muslim extremists).
Question them all, especially the sources that build your feelings of anger and fear. This is my only message.
Peace,
Lawrence from Detroit
Lawrence,
Your wordy comment can be summed up thusly,
"Question authority."
Thanks.
But, it bears little on the subject matter, which is based on source material. If you actually want to comment/contribute, then it would be advisable to site references which would dispute our citations.
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