If you have the stomach to watch that video I posted further down remember these are the same people now moving toward Islamabad and Pakistan's nukes
from Hot Air:
Time to start freaking out about Pakistan
posted at 4:32 pm on April 23, 2009 by Allahpundit
Well past time, actually, but this Daily Mail piece has had me on edge since morning. The Kardari government gave the Taliban an inch by signing away Swat so now they’ve decided to take a mile in Buner. The wages of appeasement:
There are fears that the Taliban, who have already been handed control of the Swat valley, could now take Islamabad and topple the government.
Militants are believed to be just 60 miles away - and edging closer by the day…
Many in Buner are now too frightened to speak to reporters.
However, one judge said that the militants had entered the district in ‘large numbers’ and started setting up checkpoints at main roads and strategic positions…
Rasul Bakhsh Rais, professor of political science at Lahore University of Management Sciences, said the Taliban may have concluded from the Swat deal that authorities will cave in to violent demands for Islamic law elsewhere.
‘They have natural allies in the religious political parties in other parts of the country,’ he said.
Read this dispatch from Time about the rapid shari’a-ization of Buner and spreading panic in Islamabad. How bad is it? Roggio ups the freak-out ante:
The Taliban takeover of Haripur would put the Taliban on the doorstep of
Islamabad and would also put two major nuclear facilities at risk.
Haripur borders the Margala Hills, a region in the Islamabad Capital Territory. Haripur also borders the Punjab districts of Attock and Rawalpindi.
Attock hosts two major nuclear facilities in Pakistan: the Wah Cantonment Ordnance Complex and the Kamra (Minhas) Airbase. The Wah Cantonment Ordnance Complex host three sites where nuclear weapons and components are stored and assembled and aircraft and missiles are modified for use in nuclear attacks. The nearby Kamra Airbase is thought to host attack aircraft capable of delivering nuclear weapons.
Rawalpindi is the “garrison” city for Pakistan’s military. The city hosts the headquarters of the Army and Air Force, and several nuclear weapons research
facilities are also located there.
I remember reading last year somewhere that the Pentagon has emergency contingency plans to seize Pakistan’s nukes if things go haywire, but I’m naively hoping against hope that Zardari and the military leadership will voluntarily surrender them to keep them out of jihadi hands if they think they’re about to be overrun. Obama would have to guarantee Pakistan’s security against an Indian nuclear attack, though, and even then national pride might stop them from giving up the bomb — assuming, that is, that the leadership still has sufficient control over the military to get them to carry out an order like that. A horrifying possibility here is that there are Taliban sympathizers among the Pakistani troops safeguarding their nuclear arsenal. The more leverage the jihadis get, the greater the risk of defections.
Pakistan’s sent a few troops to Buner and Hillary’s begging them to redeploy more from the eastern border with India, but given past practices, I assume some sort of “treaty” is in the offing whereby the government cedes Buner in exchange for a, ahem, Taliban promise to stay out of Islamabad. The analogy, obviously, would be Lebanon, where the terrorist outfit that dominates the country keeps a secular government in place to handle the mundane civic business with which it can’t be bothered. (See also Robert Kaplan’s piece yesterday about why Palestinians don’t really want a state.) What it means in practice is a terrorist base in the heart of the country, a la the U.S.’s worst fears about Anbar circa 2006, except with better communications and infrastructure than the jihadis currently have in the tribal areas.
TNR’s already whispering about the prospect of The One having to send in bombers and special forces, presumably to get the nukes and then get out, but I’m wondering at what point India gets involved and how. They’re the ones who face the most immediate threat from a nuclear Taliban; if Islamabad is on the brink, they have to decide whether to invade and go for the kill before the jihadis have established themselves as a government or hold off and let the Pakistani military focus on the internal threat. And if they wait and the Taliban takes over anyway, what then? Can’t wait to see what time it is on the clock next issue.
Update: Another factor re: Indian invasion is that it would instantly transform a Pakistani civil war into a common cause against the Indian enemy under Taliban leadership, thereby bolstering jihadi authority. If they go for it, they’d better be absolutely sure they can win.
12 comments:
The message another president might deliver to Zardari:
'Mr. Zardari, please allow us to hold your nuclear weapons safely for you until you can secure your own nation. If you do not, we will have to destroy them, and your strategic armed forces with them, using all of our power, and any we weapon we have to in order to ensure we are successful. We will not attempt to occupy Pakistan, but we hope you understand that we cannot allow the protectors, and supporters of Bin Laden to acquire scores of nuclear weapons'
But we will say and do very little.
And we will never know if or how many are missing.
Except in one way
I wonder if the Indian government is familiar with this motto:
It's better to ask forgiveness than permission.
I think a nuclear Pakistan under the rule of the Taliban is a recipe for disaster on an international scale. Perhaps a coalition of Indian and Israeli forces should time a mutual defense taking out of nuclear capability by rogue nations. I wonder if Obama would look the other way for just a minute to let it happen.
This one thing will mark the Obama Presidency. All else will dim in comparison.
On a more practical note, he's got to take into consideration that nuclear armed jihadists could pose a threat to his own annointed a$$ and Michelle will hand him his head if he gets their new digs nuked or EMP'd. Assuming they are elsewhere at the time, of course...
If the Taliban takes control, India will settle it. Islamabad will disappear, other places as well. They won't take that chance.
Oh, MR, I surely hope you are right.
But I am worried that the Taliban leaders will hypnotize (for want of a better word) the Indian government and make them think that if they JUST give 'em Kashmir, they'll be good. You know, to peacefully preach Sharia.
I know it is insane, but people under existential threats often act in completely irrational ways to try to save themselves.
I am very interested in what China's reponse will be. Will they try to tame that tiger for their own ends?
Amazing what rushes in during a leadership vacuum, isn't it?
And I am not just talking about Obama.
Maybe Obama's suggestion that we invade Pakistan during the campaign (which was hooted down by everyone because Pakistan was an "ally") looks pretty good in retrospect. For the life of me, though, I cannot figure out why he said it. Just to be contrary? Because of the nukes?
Also, I don't remember if that was before or after Musharaf (sp?) was gone.
I guess we will never know.
At least I got the freaking out about a Nuclear Taliban done last night. I am now so tired I may actually be able to sleep.
It does make me feel a little better that there are other people who share the same dread. I know we all die alone, but it is comforting to know that the road there is not companionless.
Ro
I suspect Obot may have proposed the invasion of Pakistan because he knows he absolutely cannot afford to lose control of this situation. There are no safety wheels on Pakistan -- no Israel to blame if things go south, no way to claim ignorance of the extent of the nuclear program, no excuses if a device falls into the hands of al Qaeda and is next seen descending on NYC. He can't play POTUS and Pirates with this one and rely on the SEALs to bail him out. Hillary is already in his face with the Existential Mortal Threat announcements. This may be the Test that Biden warned of, but he was wrong in thinking they could get away with even looking like they're doing the wrong thing but don't worry you'll see we were right all along. Once this thing starts nobody is going to be able to tie it up in a nice little package.
India may waste a bit of time staring at the Taliban cobra but once the Mumbai reruns start they will likely awaken rudely and do what they've been expecting to have to do for years. Good luck to them, they're going to need it. Aren't we all.
Ellen K
I do not know how much truth there is to this
India and Israel had secretly planned to hit Pakistan’s nuclear facility in Kahuta near Islamabad in 1983-84, but backed off when the CIA in 1984 tipped off then President General Zia-ul Haq.
“The Asian Age” reported this in its report published on Sunday from London quoting details revealed by investigative journalists Adrian Levy and Catherine Scott-Clark in their new book, Deception: Pakistan, the United States and the Global Weapons Conspiracy.
India’s secret intelligence links with Israel at the time when officially the two countries did not have any diplomatic contacts. “In February 1983, with the strike plan at an advanced stage, Indian military officials had travelled secretly to Israel, which had a common interest in eliminating (A.Q.) Khan, to buy electronic warfare equipment to neutralise Kahuta’s air defences,
Indian put its plans on hold after Raja Ramanna, then director of the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, was warned by the then Chairman of Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission Munir Ahmed Khan in Vienna in the autumn of 1983 that Islamabad would attack Bombay, if its facilities in Kahuta were attacked.
Israel suggested that they would carry out the raid on Kahuta using the Indian Jamnagar base in Gujarat to launch its jets and another IAF base in northern India to refuel.
However, India and Israel backed off from the plan after the CIA tipped off President Zia ul Haq and the US state department warned India that “the US will be responsive if India persists.”
Prime Minister Indira Gandhi then aborted the operation despite protests from military planners in New Delhi and Jerusalem.
Gen. K.M. Arif, who was at the time Vice Chief of Pakistan Army as saying: “Our friends had let us know what the Israelis and Indians intended to do, and so we let them know how we would respond. Both sides were harrying the other and were absolutely aware of the consequences of every move. In the end, it was India that blinked.”
People, if Pakistan goes down into chaos, or the Talib's or LeT, or is taken over by the Lubavitch of Red Hook Brooklyn, whatever...the reason has been written since Nov 2000, and the dialectic since Florida
GEORGE BUSH'S FAULT.
@Shiva..very interesting.
That smug prick Zia ul Haq was helping with the USSR in Afghanistan while making the ISI-Taliban into what it is today. I can just hear the gyrations @state, defense, and CIA trying to figure out if they should warn the pakistanis and give up the war against the reds.
We should ALL bear in mind in thinking about Iran, that while HE brought the weapons program to fruition, it was Zulfikar Ali Bhutto the elected president of Pakistan, who was hung by Haq, that started the program, stating that the nation would EAT GRASS IF IT HAS TO in order to garner the resources for the bomb. It was the PEOPLE of pakistan who gave force to this under BOTH systems, and were most comfortable under Haq and what he spawned.
The PEOPLE of Pakistan and the PEOPLE of the USA are where the problems are. NOT JUST THE GOVTS. It's hard to tell, but in the end that may be the story in Iran as well. The PEOPLE of Iran are behind the nuclear program there, and there is no doubt about it.
In places like Iran, Pakistan and to some extent Indonesia the people are behind the government whether they like it or not, people learn to keep their mouths shut.All it needs to do is have a few thugs in every villages mosque, and the government has the population by the balls. The only way the governments lose controls, is when more extreme group wants to take over, like we are witnessing in Pakistan.
We see a perfect example in the video that is in a few post back, where, four people where beheaded in the street. You do not talk when there are thugs like this roaming the streets
la la la la de de da da
la la de da ain't nuthin'
to do with izzzzzzzzzzzzz
lamb
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