Saturday, January 06, 2007

Israe To Hit Iran With Nukes? Sunday Time Of London Says So

UPDATED AT BOTTOM OF POST

Go to Drudge Report. He is reporting it in big red letters. There is no link as of yet.

Krishna left the link to the Times Of London article:


ISRAEL has drawn up secret plans to destroy Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities with tactical nuclear weapons.

Two Israeli air force squadrons are training to blow up an Iranian facility using low-yield nuclear “bunker-busters”, according to several Israeli military sources.

The attack would be the first with nuclear weapons since 1945, when the United States dropped atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The Israeli weapons would each have a force equivalent to one-fifteenth of the Hiroshima bomb.


Under the plans, conventional laser-guided bombs would open “tunnels” into the targets. “Mini-nukes” would then immediately be fired into a plant at Natanz, exploding deep underground to reduce the risk of radioactive fallout.

“As soon as the green light is given, it will be one mission, one strike and the Iranian nuclear project will be demolished,” said one of the sources.

Israeli military commanders believe conventional strikes may no longer be enough to annihilate increasingly well-defended enrichment facilities. Several have been built beneath at least 70ft of concrete and rock. However, the nuclear-tipped bunker-busters would be used only if a conventional attack was ruled out and if the United States declined to intervene, senior sources said.

Israeli and American officials have met several times to consider military action. Military analysts said the disclosure of the plans could be intended to put pressure on Tehran to halt enrichment, cajole America into action or soften up world opinion in advance of an Israeli attack.
The Israeli government has warned repeatedly that it will never allow nuclear weapons to be made in Iran, whose president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has declared that “Israel must be wiped off the map”.


Sources close to the Pentagon said the United States was highly unlikely to give approval for tactical nuclear weapons to be used. One source said Israel would have to seek approval “after the event”, as it did when it crippled Iraq’s nuclear reactor at Osirak with airstrikes in 1981.

Scientists have calculated that although contamination from the bunker-busters could be limited, tons of radioactive uranium compounds would be released.

The Israelis believe that Iran’s retaliation would be constrained by fear of a second strike if it were to launch its Shehab-3 ballistic missiles at Israel.

Note that we just this past week, installed a Navy guy as the new head of Centcomm. Iraq is, obviously, a ground war. Why would we want a Navy Guy to head up a ground war?

Because the theater of war is about to shift dramatically? To Iran, to be headed up by the Navy?

Makes sense.

UPDATE: In an article from the Spectator which I found at Wizbang (and which is hidden behind Registration) there is speculation that either Israel or the United States are bound to do this within 12 months:

Within the next 12 months, the Americans or the Israelis, possibly both, are likely to launch military strikes aimed at crippling Iran's nuclear ambitions. Those strikes may come sooner rather than later. And they will probably be nuclear.
In addition to Iran’s indigenous nuclear programme, there have been reports that it has bought several nuclear bombs ‘off the shelf’ from rogue scientists in the former Soviet Union. So, for all the fuss about its nuclear programme, Iran might already have several tactical nuclear weapons stuffed in its armoury.
If Israel is drawn into a pre-emptive strike, the Iranians might reckon that the international community will judge an Iranian nuclear response to be proportionate, even justifiable. With their political compass fixed at the dangerous intersection of ideological fervour and religious zealotry, the mullahs of Tehran could be calculating that such an outcome will succeed in both burnishing their Islamic credentials and realising their cosmic dream of dominance.

14 comments:

Anonymous said...

Isn't that the sort of thing that's supposed to unleash the American Hiroshima, according to Paul William's information?

Talk about damned if you do and damned if you don't...

Well, it is a dirty job, but obviously at some point somebody is going to have to do it, and the Israelis have experience along these lines. Also cojones.

Anonymous said...

Just checked that as well. But would Olmert intitiate such an action?

Pastorius said...

I have to wonder if Olmert isn't about to be given the old "No Confidence" heave ho.

Krishna109 said...

The article is at http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2089-2535310,00.html

Actually, Drudge may be indulging in a bit of journalistic sensationalism. Basically, the article says that Israel has 'drawn up plans...'. Militaries worldwide have contingency plans drawn up...for several scenarios, for attacks on [or response to] attacks by various countries. During the 'Cold War', the U.S. had plans drawn up for nuclear war with the USSR and China.

The real question is-- will Israel initate a first strike...and will it be nuclear.

It seems to me the options look pretty grim.

Pastorius said...

Krishna,
Thanks for the link.

Watcher said...

Also check out this article from GlobalSecurity.org about Israel's in striking Iran. And this one about the US capabilities.

Dag said...

Watcher, I just looked at your photograph. I like it a lot.

Anonymous said...

Relax, kiddies! Olmert wouldn't even kill a mosquito biting him on the nose. He would instead offer it a piece of his nose and some other part of his anatomy just so he could be left alone... for a minute or two.

Perhaps a real man at the helm of Israel's governmen, like for example Golda Meir, might have attacked Iran. Yes, I know Golda was a woman, but she had more guts than all the "men" in Israel's Knesset today, put together.

Watcher said...

Dag,

I saw it on a T-shirt in Chinatown a couple of years ago and really liked it. ;-)

Watcher said...

Israel needs Netanyahu now more than ever.

Krishna109 said...

Meryl Yourish has some interesting comments about this on her blog http://www.yourish.com/2007/01/06/2559. Also, I've posted links to two related videos in the 'Featured Videos of the Month' section of my blog-- very interesting if anyone hasn't seen them yet--scroll down the column on the left to January Videos-- one is about appeasement, the other about the Israeli raid on Osirak [HT for this one to Smooth Stone...long video, but really excellent].

Epaminondas said...

And I have plans to become emperor of new orleans, but I have a feeling I have neither the means nor the stomach for it.

Israel possesses one of the requisites for carrying out this plan, but oddly I can't see Olmert doing this unless it is a politically favorable event.

The idea, given his statements ('we are tired of beating our enemies') and them being consistent with his performance and strategy in Lebanon, that he would, acting in untrammeled fashion in defense of Israel and half the jews on the planet, in order to prevent the next holocaust as promised, attack IRan with nuclear weapons seems completely farfetched and alien to this man.

I am certain that the mullahs feel the EXACT same way.

Now if it was Bibi, they ought to be in the basement RIGHT NOW

felix said...

We are all (myself included) working on the assumption that the Iranian leadership--Almadinijad et al--can't be deterred by the threat of Israeli or American counterattack if they launch weapons at Israel or our allies in the Gulf, or at who knows...We assume this because Iranian leadership has said that they are Islamofascists thru and thru so it's ok if they and their people get killed in the process. Dying for allah and all that.

However, there may be a leadership level below the nutcases we see and here from, say in the Iranian military, where, if they stop to think about it, they would prefer not to get killed and have parts of their destroyed. So I guess one hope in all the sending of aircraft carriers to the Gulf and hearing about Israeli bombing plans, nuclear or otherwise, is to motivate the "sane iranian" leadership (if there is such a thing) to stage a coup.

Pastorius said...

Felix,
Good thought, but I doubt it's gonna happen. Not that I don't think there are sane leaders in Iran. I just think there aren't enough to stage a coup.