Emanuel Winston analyzes possible scenarios should Iran become nuclear, or, God forbid, if they are already nuclear (thanks to Michael):
Emanuel A. Winston, Mid East Analyst & Commentator
Both America and Israel are artfully avoiding eliminating Iran's nuclear capability until it will be too late. Each issues disinformation propaganda that Iran is several years away from being nuclear-capable. Nine years ago we wrote "IRAN WITH NUKES" on April 15, 1998 that "the public has been informed that in 2 or 5 or 10 years one or another radical nation will be nuclear-capable or have long range missiles with catastrophic warheads, i.e. NBC (Nuclear, Biological and/or Chemical)".
These vague estimates are based on how many centrifuges it will take to make sufficient quantities of concentrated and enriched Uranium of bomb quality. What we are NOT being told is the amount of fissile material Iran has already purchased from the Russians or North Koreans, both officially and through the well-oiled Black Market. Russia's President Vladimir Putin knows but, don't expect him to inform America.
We had the opportunity years ago of insuring that Iran could not either develop or purchase nuclear materials. Instead, we played around with that crook and terrorist pacifier Kofi Annan and the U.N. - as well a Mohammed ElBaradei, Director of the IAEA (International Atomic
Energy Agency) of the U.N. - all liars and no friends of America.
I am certain that these nefarious do-nothings will solve nothing until we are forced to have Congressional Hearings after a number of American cities experience Nuclear devastation. Perhaps there won't even be those useless Hearings if Iran manages to set-off two or three suitcase nukes in the center of Washington. Irradiated and helpless Congress will scatter for treatment in various hospitals assuming the hospitals are operable and not massively overloaded - which they would be. Putin will raise his "defense level", given that his country supplied the "suitcase nukes".
We could have hit Iran's nuclear facilities now and not have any American troops on the ground. Missiles and Bunker-Busting Bombs would leave what is left of the Iranian government with enough problems to keep them busy re-building for 20 years or more. But, of course, we have to wait to talk it over, have International Conferences with the U.N., palaver with Putin and China. No doubt, they will be willing to talk and talk for years. After all, they are the suppliers to Iran and NOT the target, at least for a while.
By all means, let us talk to the Russians - who will be convincing Iran to buy anti-tank, anti-air, anti-ship missiles so they can sink some of our fleets gathering in the Red Sea and off the coast of Lebanon in the Mediterrean Sea. We could sink some nuclear mines off the ports of Russia, North Korea and/or China - which could go off IF any of them interfere with the Iranian operation.
I wonder if our brilliant Think-Tanks have contemplated that Iran already has operational nukes, purchased long ago when the Soviet Union collapsed. I wrote at the time that, at least, 4-6 tactical nukes went missing from the Soviet East Germany weapons' stock. Naturally, the CIA floated the story that "everything was in place and all was well with the world".
When Pakistan and India demonstrated their nuclear weapons capability, U.S. Intelligence gasped and expressed astonishment that these two nations had secretly developed nukes.
I am also reminded of the Soviet General Alexander Lebed, former Russian National Security Adviser, on a visit to the U.S. spoke plainly on a September 7, 1997 "Sixty Minutes" TV broadcast about how the Russian military has "lost track" of more than 100 "Kegs" of one-kiloton suitcase nukes - any one of which could kill up to 100,000 people. (1) Lebed was later 'conveniently' killed in a helicopter "accident".
Could Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's Iran already have operational nukes? You bet!
Year ago, I wrote about the collaboration of such nations as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iran, Libya, Syria..... who had collected sufficient funds for Pakistan to establish a nuclear development facility. If US. Intelligence knew, they and the U.S. politicians choose to do nothing about it. Pakistan was to transfer either fully operational nukes or technology as pay-back for their investment. That happened when the infamous Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan visited the investing countries. Dr. AQ Khan admitted that he gave nuclear secrets to other countries, Iran, North Korea and Libya. (2)
To conclude, IF we do NOT destroy Iran's nuclear development facilities now, then they will not only achieve nuclear weapons capability but also supply the likes of Hezb'Allah and Hamas, among others with, at the very least, "Dirty Nukes"- bombs loaded with radiological material.
If, per chance, there was a Chernobyl level accident, perhaps the U.N. would really act decisively and Iran's collaborators would cease acting as the enabling suppliers.
September 27th at a press conference by the National Council of Resistance of Iran's Chairman Mehdi Abrishmchi reported that Iran was constructing a new site for a secret military project. He located it near the small village of Abbas-Abad 5 km south of the Natanz nuclear complex in the Siah mountain. The site, he said, consisted of a sprawling underground area with two tunnels which run under two mountains connected to Natanz. The tunnel entrance is six meters wide. Building began in 2006 and is scheduled to end in March 2008. Revolutionary Guards Brig. Gen. Tabatabi monitors progress of the work every week; it is overseen by his deputy Brig. Gen. Daneshjo. To preserve the project's secrecy, the NCRI chairman reported, its various sections were assigned to different agencies and units of the defense ministry and Revolutionary Guards, none of which has the whole picture. (3)
So, it's now who lives or who dies as the consequences of waffling.
AFTERHITTING IRAN'S NUCLEAR SITES
Regrettably, pre-planning for Iraq AFTER the actual war was won, was woefully inadequate. I will leave it at that. Should President Bush have the foresight to take out Iran's nuclear capability, hopefully, there will be deep planning to deal with Iran AFTER the nuclear sites are disabled.
What about Muslims in America? In Europe? In South America? In Australia? In Russia? Despite the false hype issued by President Bush about Islam and what a wonderful, peaceful religion it is, we can expect a sizeable backlash after Iran's nuclear sites are destroyed. The leaders around the world will not be silent. They will still have control over those current "sleeping cells"of radical Islamists who have been taught to hate and kill infidels while aiming to creating a Global Islamic Caliphate across the whole world, with all peoples following Sharia Law (strict Islamic laws).
Muslim students on campus may very well start to carry out what has been urged on them by the leaders of the "sleeper cells". A national protective alert should go out within minutes of any strike against Iran's nuclear facilities. Important targets such as Nuclear Power Plants, water treatment facilities, hospitals, government buildings, media broadcasting and printing institutions, bridges, tunnels and the infrastructure that keeps America running should be instantly protected. In fact, it is not too soon to begin now.
At the slightest threat, those who threaten should be gathered up and shipped to their countries of origin - even if those who threaten are 3rd generation immigrants.
1 comment:
Pastorius: very interesting article, though not surprising.
It's more than probable than this has already happened and it's really the cause of all the Ahmadinejad's rantings.
Anyway, I would have spoken something about China, too. There are reports of Chinese weapons found in the hands of the Talibans. Iranian "peaceful" program has not been stopped at UN by China.
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