Today's chapter in our story of the painfully obvious : "Israel sees Iran smuggling nukes to Hizbullah"

Gertz:

TEL AVIV -- Israeli intelligence sources said Iran would avoid a direct nuclear strike on Israel. The sources said Israel has an overwhelming conventional and non-conventional superiority and could threaten Teheran.

HAIFA [ZOOM] -- Israeli military intelligence sees no threat this year from either Hizbullah or Syria.

"In my humble opinion, radical Iran will not fire a missile because it knows that Israel has greater capability," Knesset member Yitzhak Ben-Yisrael said. "But they have other ways -- through Hizbullah."

Ben-Yisrael, a reserve major general and former head of the Defense Ministry's research and development unit, said Israel has the capability to intercept Iranian ballistic missiles. He said Israel's Arrow-2 system could stop Iran's Shihab-3, with a range of 2,000 kilometers and designed to contain a nuclear warhead.

"Israel has 10 minutes to stop an incoming missile," Ben-Yisrael, a member of the ruling Kadima Party, said. "This could give Israel two and even three opportunities to shoot down the missile."

As a result, Ben-Yisrael said, Iran could embark on another strategy to strike Israel. The parliamentarian said Iran might smuggle a nuclear weapon to Hizbullah in Lebanon.

The only thing wrong with this thoery of responsibilty avoidance is that the resultant radiation will have a nuclear magnetic resonance specturm which will identify EXACTLY where the U-235 came from. Whether that is the Ukraine, Russia, or Shiraz...or hee hee, Niger. While such an act might be successful in deploying and using a nuclear weapon, IMHO, the Israelis will do exactly the same thing, and perhaps might react across the board rather than take a chance. Isael has patrolling submarines armed with nuclear tipped long range cruise missiles.

In turn, Hizbullah could then transport the nuclear warhead via a speedboat and ram the Haifa port. Ben-Yisrael said such a weapon would destroy the port and most of the Israeli city.

Still, Israeli military intelligence has determined that neither Hizbullah nor Syria would conduct a major military operation against the Jewish state in 2008. The MI
assessment said Israel has restored its deterrence in wake of the 2006 war.

The problem with this entire way of thinking is that it assumes the Iranian want to avoid responsibility, which argues that somehow they are deterrable.

That is the important question.
Is Iran deterrable?