Really? Who woulda thunk it?
Well, at least now, some people in the international community are beginning to face the painfully obvious.
US, European experts believe Iran already has full nuclear capabilities but has chosen to appease international community, suspend uranium enrichment in favor of investing in new centrifuge formation, which in time would allow it to reach its nuclear goals doubly fast
Ron Ben-Yishai
Published:
07.10.08, 13:07 / Israel News
The international pressure and the technical difficulties involved in uranium enrichment have prompted Iran to change its nuclear development strategy, Western diplomats and nuclear experts said Thursday.
Based on the recent International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and intelligence reports, the Iranians are no longer aggressively trying to create fissionable uranium.
Fissionable uranium contains 90% of uranium isotope 235, which can be used to create a nuclear warhead. According to assessments, the Iranians are no longer developing new warheads for the missiles they posses and are now funneling all their resources towards building new, modern industrial formations which would eventually be able to enrich uranium and manufacture warheads much faster.
Ron Ben-Yishai
Published:
07.10.08, 13:07 / Israel News
The international pressure and the technical difficulties involved in uranium enrichment have prompted Iran to change its nuclear development strategy, Western diplomats and nuclear experts said Thursday.
Based on the recent International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and intelligence reports, the Iranians are no longer aggressively trying to create fissionable uranium.
Fissionable uranium contains 90% of uranium isotope 235, which can be used to create a nuclear warhead. According to assessments, the Iranians are no longer developing new warheads for the missiles they posses and are now funneling all their resources towards building new, modern industrial formations which would eventually be able to enrich uranium and manufacture warheads much faster.
At the core of the new formation is said to be an array of new centrifuges, built based on information sold to Iran by Pakistani scientist Abd al-Kader Khan. The new Pakistani P-2 centrifuges – or IR-2 and IR-3, as they are called in Iran – can enrich uranium at double and triple the speed than the 3,000 old centrifuges installed in Iran's Natanz nuclear facility.
Having two sets of centrifuges, said Tehran, will allow it to cut down the time in needs to produce fissionable uranium by two-thirds.
The Natanz facility already sports 300 of the new centrifuges, but since Iran is adamant that its nuclear program is being developed for peaceful purposes, it says it will not be using the new infrastructure to its full capacity, and will not be producing fissionable uranium unless the Iranian leadership decides it needs to produce operational nuclear weapons.
When that moment comes and production is stepped up, Iran would be able to have several operational nuclear warheads within one year's time.
Threshold capabilities
The international intelligence community defines Iran as having "threshold capabilities" – the same as Japan, Germany and Brazil, for example – countries which have the technical ability and know-how, but have chosen not to develop nuclear weapons, opting to sign the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) instead. Counties who are obligated by the NPT are allowed to develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, such as for medical or alternative energy use; and are allowed to acquire the necessary materials, under strict IAEA supervision.
Iran has also signed the NPT and as long as it agrees to have IAES inspectors monitor it actions – and should it be able to successfully form its new centrifuge formation – is can be considered a country with legitimate threshold capabilities.
Only if it is proven that Iran is enriching uranium for the clear purpose of building a bomb, would the international community have merit to apply severe sanctions against it, such as an oil embargo and a naval blockade.
After its last inspection of the Iranian facilities, the IAEA has concluded that between December of 2007 and May of 2008 Iran has pumped 2.3 tons of Uranium Hexafluoride gas – UF6 – to the centrifuge formation in Natanz, producing about 300 lbs of low-grade uranium. In layman's terms – Iran already posses the ability to produce any kind of enriched uranium it wants, including full-fledged fissionable uranium. Using the existing centrifuge formation, Iran would need between three to five years before it can produce enough materials to actually build a small nuclear bomb – a rate the Iranians are not happy about.
Having two sets of centrifuges, said Tehran, will allow it to cut down the time in needs to produce fissionable uranium by two-thirds.
The Natanz facility already sports 300 of the new centrifuges, but since Iran is adamant that its nuclear program is being developed for peaceful purposes, it says it will not be using the new infrastructure to its full capacity, and will not be producing fissionable uranium unless the Iranian leadership decides it needs to produce operational nuclear weapons.
When that moment comes and production is stepped up, Iran would be able to have several operational nuclear warheads within one year's time.
Threshold capabilities
The international intelligence community defines Iran as having "threshold capabilities" – the same as Japan, Germany and Brazil, for example – countries which have the technical ability and know-how, but have chosen not to develop nuclear weapons, opting to sign the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) instead. Counties who are obligated by the NPT are allowed to develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, such as for medical or alternative energy use; and are allowed to acquire the necessary materials, under strict IAEA supervision.
Iran has also signed the NPT and as long as it agrees to have IAES inspectors monitor it actions – and should it be able to successfully form its new centrifuge formation – is can be considered a country with legitimate threshold capabilities.
Only if it is proven that Iran is enriching uranium for the clear purpose of building a bomb, would the international community have merit to apply severe sanctions against it, such as an oil embargo and a naval blockade.
After its last inspection of the Iranian facilities, the IAEA has concluded that between December of 2007 and May of 2008 Iran has pumped 2.3 tons of Uranium Hexafluoride gas – UF6 – to the centrifuge formation in Natanz, producing about 300 lbs of low-grade uranium. In layman's terms – Iran already posses the ability to produce any kind of enriched uranium it wants, including full-fledged fissionable uranium. Using the existing centrifuge formation, Iran would need between three to five years before it can produce enough materials to actually build a small nuclear bomb – a rate the Iranians are not happy about.
The IAEA's latest report of Iranian nuclear capabilities noted several covert developments "which should be cause for some concern": Developments of nuclear detonators, high-end experiments involving conventional explosives made to accelerate nuclear warheads' fission and underground nuclear testing facilities.
The most disconcerting find, however was that of computer files suggesting Iran already possesses – and may have already tested – a full-fledged nuclear warhead.
The most disconcerting find, however was that of computer files suggesting Iran already possesses – and may have already tested – a full-fledged nuclear warhead.
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