NIE, And Recent Israeli Iran Attack Exercise, Were Ruses

That's the opinion of one Redneck Texan. I like his analysis:

What Peace In The Middle East Will Look Like

I think maybe the real "Practice Run" occurred on January 17th of this year.

Israel tested a dual-stage missile yesterday that defense officials say will improve the country's power of deterrence. Channel 10 television said Israel was working on a missile with a range of 4,000 kilometers.

The country's main ballistic missile threat is from Iran, which has advanced missiles as well as a nuclear program that many in the West believe could produce weapons in the future."

Everybody can do the math and understand that the significance is that we can reach with a rocket engine to every point in the world," weapons expert Isaac Ben-Israel, a retired army general and Tel Aviv University professor who is now a member of the Knesset, told Channel 2 TV.

But Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said he was less impressed. "The Zionist regime ... would not dare attack Iran," Ahmadinejad told Al Jazeera television in remarks translated into Arabic. "The Iranian response would make them regret it, and they know this."

The missile was launched out to sea from the Palmachim base near the coast south of Tel Aviv. During its ascent it left a long white trail that could be seen clearly from many locations in the Dan, Shfela and Sharon regions. According to one eyewitness, after the missile reached a high altitude and appeared to be losing momentum, a second propulsion system kicked in.

Experts say this indicates a substantial breakthrough in extending the rocket's range.

Israeli media reported that people who saw the white contrail in the sky yesterday morning as far away as Jerusalem made frantic calls to the police, fearing a Palestinian rocket attack from the nearby West Bank. The missile tested was one of a series of Jericho-type missiles in Israel's arsenal, according to foreign reports.

The most advanced version of this missile is the Jericho-3, which is considered intercontinental. Details of the missile were placed under strict military censorship, banning reporters from disclosing details.

The talking heads that suggested Israel would not attack Iran based that opinion at least partially on Israel's logistical limitations associated with a massive, 100 airplane, air strike. Where would they refuel over? Would the US, Turkey, or Saudi Arabia allow them to refuel over their controlled airspace?

Why is everyone assuming Israel will attack with air power, when in the same interview they all suggest that the less technologically advanced Iranians would respond with a "Massive Barrage of Missiles"? Why would Israel risk their most precious commodity, trained pilots, when they could achieve the same results, and receive the same level of global condemnation, by launching a first strike with their Jericho ballistic missiles?

Everyone questions whether Israel has the range to launch a massive air strike, but they certainly have the missile range for it.

I still like the underlying theory I put forth in my last front page commentary Israel Stands Alone.

So Bush and Cheney come up with a plan.... why should we cast the first stone when Israel will if we dont? Why should Bush assume the responsibility for everything that happens after Iran is attacked when its Israel and Iran's Arab neighbors that stand to gain the most from delaying the Iranian's quest for Nuclear weapons.

I'm sure the Israelis were hoping we would take care of their problem for them, but in reality they risk no more by attacking Iran themselves than they did if we attacked Iran for them. In either case Israel was going to use up their supply of Arrows, in either case Israel runs the risk of Iranian missiles and proxies threatening the continuity of the Jewish state.

It ain't like the Muslim and Leftist worlds are going to hate Israel any more after they attack another Muslim reactor than they already do now. ...

As soon as Israeli bombs MISSILES start landing in Iran, we start leading the chorus of nations condemning Israel. Is Iran still going to use those weapons to attack US naval assets and bases in the Gulf like they have planning on for years? How are they going to be able to resist the urge when their prized reactor is in smoldering ruins?

Now comes phase two...... we have to provoke that Iranian response. Even if it means sacrificing an undermanned naval asset to do it, thats something we have done more than once in the past. Lets say we just happen to have an expendable asset close enough to Iranian waters that it becomes a un-resistible target of opportunity for the enraged Iranians...... and they, (or something we can prove was made in Iran) attacks it in international waters.

An unprovoked attack against the US by the Iranian military. That elusive moral high ground shifts to the innocent Americans.

While images of the carnage of the unprovoked attack are fresh on CNN Bush rushes to Congress for authorization to use force in reply. What idiot Congressmen denies that request in an election year? Hillary, Biden, and Ahmadinejad will all realize at that moment that they have been outmaneuvered by a slow witted Texan.

In that I still think the strangely declassified NIE assessment was just part of the plan to give us the high moral ground when Iran responds to an Israeli attack by attacking non-Israeli targets in the region. But with a missile attack by Israel in lieu of a US assisted / approved air strike, we'd have even less overt duplicity.

The question now seems to be WHEN will Israel attack. Its not so much a question anymore of when the Iranians cross declared technological red lines, as it is when will said attack would achieve the most desirable effect on our political process. Between the election and inauguration, or before the election? Bush's M.O. with Fallujah was after the election, but I think the Israelis see an attack before the election, one that puts Obama on the hot seat between his Israel hating base and the Jewish voting block he covets, as the time slot that best serves their long-term interests.

At any rate, the interesting part will be the aftermath of an Israeli attack, and what type of warheads those missiles that Israel will loft eastward across the region have in the nose-cones. Any successful conventional attack on the bunkered centrifuges in Natanz, and wherever the unpublicized covert backup facility is, is going to release radiation into the atmosphere and Iranian countryside. That will give rise to the Iranian propaganda that Israel "introduced" Nuclear weapons first.

On the same hand, Israel could use tactical nukes to assure the bunkers are penetrated and then claim the resulting radiation was from the Iranian's enriched uranium. And just as interesting, if not more, will be what kind of west bound warheads will Israel shoot down over Jordan?

Its gonna be great..... final resolution of the 1000 year old Holy War might be just around the corner.