Thursday, February 12, 2009

Who's Guarding Those Nukes?

Obama may face that international crisis test sooner than Biden thought. This could go very badly and get very dangerous very fast, especially since I doubt the Pakistani military or ISI would do very much to stand in their way. And how would India react if The Taliban took control of Islamabad?

from Canada Free Press via NEIN

Taliban threaten attack on Islamabad
By Hamid Mir
Wednesday, February 11, 2009

(Editor’s Note: Polish-based Canada Free Press (CFP) columnist David Dastych reports that the brutal execution of Polish engineer Piotr Stanczak by a suspected local Taliban unit in Pakistan, has horrified Poland and stirred waves of criticism in Poland and abroad. “Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has strongly criticized his own Foreign Office Minister and the Justice minister, with the Opposition demanding their dismissal,” Dastych told CFP this morning. A shocking, new, 7-minute video that appears to show Pakistani-based Taliban terrorists beheading the Polish hostage, is circulating the Internet. The video is so horrifying that some news outlets chose not to distribute it. Stanczak, described by Dastych as “a brave and innocent man”, was kidnapped close to the Afghan border on September 28, 2008 by armed men while he was surveying oil and gas fields for a Krakow-based geophysics company. The gunmen killed three Pakistanis travelling with him. In his report below, Pakistan-based journalist Hamid Mir reveals that the Taliban has released a hitlist, declaring all “pro-Pakistan” Jihadis as their enemies.)

ISLAMABAD: The local Taliban leadership has decided to send its fighters to Islamabad as a reaction to the operations in Darra Adamkhel and Swat Valley and in this regard chalkings on the walls of Islamabad are already appearing, forcing the Islamabad administration to whitewash these messages quickly.

Many religious scholars in Islamabad have also received messages from the Taliban that they have only two options, either to support the Taliban or leave the capital or they will be considered collaborators of the “pro-American Zardari government” which, they claim, is not different from the previous Musharraf regime.

It is also surprising that the Taliban of Swat and Bajaur have included the names of some religious and Jihadi leaders on their hit list, who are not ready to fight inside Pakistan against their own countrymen.

The Taliban have accused some militant leaders of the tribal areas and some leaders of the banned Lashkar-e-Taiba, Harkatul Mujahideen and Hizbul Mujahideen of trying to stop youngsters from fighting the Pakistani forces. The Taliban have declared all these “pro-Pakistan” Jihadis as their enemies.

The names of Maulvi Nazir from South Wazirastan, Hafiz Gul Bahadur from North Waziristan, Hafiz Muhammad Saeed, Maulana Farooq Kashmiri and Syed Salahudin, who have threatened some Hizbul Mujahideen leaders in Swat and Dir to leave the areas as soon as possible, are included on the Taliban hit list.

Another Taliban leader in the Mohmand Agency, Maulvi Omar Khalid has threatened boys belonging to the banned Lashkar-e-Taiba to leave the tribal agency or face death. Omar Khalid has claimed that these boys are only interested in fighting against the foreign troops in Afghanistan or against India, which means that they don’t want an Islamic government in Pakistan.

This complicated situation has forced the government to take some extreme steps against the Taliban in Darra Adamkhel and Swat, who killed a Polish engineer as a reaction to the operations in their areas.

Some diplomatic sources have revealed that initially Pakistan was ready to release some arrested Taliban fighters in exchange for the abducted Polish and Chinese engineers, but the US authorities raised objections and a deal could not be finalised.

The Pakistani authorities successfully negotiated the release of a kidnapped Pakistani diplomat Tariq Azizuddin in 2008 and the release of kidnapped Army personnel in 2007 by releasing some Taliban fighters. But this time the US pressure complicated the situation.

The Army authorities are facing a serious insurgency from the mountains of Darra Ademkhel to Swat, but this time the Army is not ready to give up despite the fact that India is once again trying to exploit the situation by using threatening language against Pakistan.

The Foreign Office in Islamabad is under a lot of diplomatic pressure after the brutal killing of kidnapped Polish engineer Piotr Stanczak to “do more” for the release of a kidnapped Chinese engineer, one Afghan diplomat, one Iranian diplomat and one kidnapped UN diplomat in Quetta but the civilian as well as the Army leadership have decided not to bow down to pressure.

Sources have revealed that kidnapped Chinese engineer Long Xiao, who is in the custody of the Taliban in Swat, is seriously ill. He was kidnapped in August 2008 with another colleague Zhang Guo. Both of them tried to escape but Xiao was injured during the escape attempt and was again arrested by the Taliban, but Zhang Guo managed to flee.

The Taliban have made it clear that they would only exchange the injured and sick Chinese engineer after the release of two dozen arrested fighters but Pakistani authorities are not ready to accept this demand.

Afghan Ambassador in Pakistan Abdul Khaliq Farahi was kidnapped last year but has not yet been recovered. Pakistani authorities are conducting an intense search operation, not only for the Afghan ambassador, but also for Iranian diplomat Heshmatollah Attarzadeh, who was also kidnapped from Peshawar last year.

A top Army official linked to the operation in Swat described the situation there as much more complicated than East Bengal in 1971 where they were fighting against the Indian-sponsored secular insurgents. The local population in East Pakistan was fully supporting the local insurgents but the ground reality in Swat is different from East Pakistan (now Bangladesh).

“We are no more fighting the secular insurgents, we are fighting with the Taliban and they are demanding the enforcement of the Islamic law in Swat and all the local secular political leaders are supporting this demand under public pressure.”

Chief Minister of NWFP Ameer Haider Hoti, Governor Awais Ghani and the Army high command have strongly recommended to enforce the long pending Sharia regulations, which will be called the “Nifaz-e-Adal regulation”.

District Police Officer of Swat, Dilawar Khan Bangash said the Taliban will have no justification to fight against the state after the enforcement of the Islamic law in Swat.

Swat, which was a princely state till July 28, 1969, had Qazi courts operating when the state was finally merged into Pakistan. Residents of Swat think that it was easy to get justice before 1969 through the Qazi courts but after the imposition of the English law, the poor people of Swat are not getting justice.

The Taliban have exploited this delay in justice and also instigated the poor people to rise against the big landlords. The Awami National Party swept the valley of Swat in 2008 elections with the slogan of peace and justice and now this party is ruling the NWFP in collaboration with the PPP.

Sources have claimed that the ANP leadership has convinced President Asif Ali Zardari to promulgate the Sharia regulations in Swat and the president will announce the promulgation in a few days.

Maulana Sufi Muhammad, of the Tehrik-e-Nafaze Shariat Muhammadi, has assured the ANP leadership that he will start a long march from Dir to Swat valley after the imposition of the Sharia law and he will appeal to his son-in-law Maulana Fazalullah and other Taliban leaders to surrender.

He assures that he will try his best to open all girls’ schools in Swat because education is a must for every male and female Muslim. He told the ANP leaders that if the Taliban did not surrender its arms after the imposition of the Sharia regulation, then he will also support the Army operation against them.

10 comments:

Michael Travis said...

I asked Hamid that very question ("What about Pakistan's Nukes") a month or so ago.

midnight rider said...

And...?

Michael Travis said...

Mir said that the Pakistani nukes are secure, but we should be concerned about the infiltration of Al Qaeda in our own agencies...

midnight rider said...

I believe that. "Lily-Whites" There's more than a few that have been saying that for years. The oft (& wrongly) maligned Northeast Intelligence Network, for one. I've always said better to be alarmist and wrong than the other way around.

I'm not as confident as Mir about the Pakistani nukes but figure they probaby have some kind of help in that regard. And a quick reaction force here to take them down if something goes badly.

midnight rider said...

Michael -- did you ever watch any of the short lived series Jericho? I fear and could foresee a scenario like that as much as an outside nuke attack on America.

Michael Travis said...

Yeah! Jericho was a very believable scenario..the Government thinks so also. When I get to work I'll upload a US Govt. assessment of the day after.

Hagman is OK (Just) but he has a notorious serial fabricator working with him...which lessens his credibility.

midnight rider said...

I'd be very interested in that assessment. I liked Jericho. It beat the hell out of anything else that was on. It was the only regular show I watched.

Some of Hagmann's stories are a bit much but overall I keep reading because some are decent. I'm not to fond of that Judi McLeod from CFP, nor his one "military analyst" who seems to see spooks everywhere.

Michael Travis said...

You must mean Sean "Fabricado" Osborne.

Bingo!

Michael Travis said...

AOW, Pastorius and WC have the threat assessments...have them forward them to you.

midnight rider said...

Thank you sir, I'll send Pasto a note.

Bingo, indeed :>)