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Tuesday, November 20, 2012

Anyone wondering why Democrats since 1968 have wanted to kill antimissile defense?


I have never been able to comprehend why ANYONE would oppose a missile system of no use unless you are under attack, whose targets are meant to kill you and your people, which can kill no human beings, and cannot be used offensively and aggressively, no matter what kind of logical contortions one can invent.
I have wondered many times if Ghandi could approve use of such a system (though I am sure he would oppose the use of resources in this way rather than directly to poor people).
The PRIMARY duty of the govt is physical protection of its citizens.
Popular Science:
But amid the troubling images and stark numbers trickling out of the conflict there, one set of numbers represents a rare bright spot: the number of Hamas rockets that Israel’s “Iron Dome” missile-defense shield isknocking out the sky. Scattered reports from various Israeli officials and news media suggest thatIron Dome has intercepted more than 300 rockets fired at Israeli population centers since hostilities began, or between 80 and 90 percent of rockets targeted.
As missile defense goes, these success rates are more or less unprecedented. One of the five Iron Dome batteries deployed to southern Israel reportedly intercepted a full 100 percent of incoming rockets fired during one Hamas salvo. The overall success rate has been described by various officials at anywhere between 75 and 95 percent. Calling it a conservative 85 percent success rate still puts Iron Dome in a class by itself where missile defense systems are concerned. Hitting a screaming rocket with a screaming rocket is, after all, really, really difficult.
So how is Israel pulling it off with such unmitigated success? Intercepting Soviet-designed Scuds and the much smaller Grad and Qassam rockets largely fielded by Hamas are in some ways very different, but the primary problem is fairly universal. Any ballistic missile interceptor system needs to meet at minimum three requirements: it must have a way to detect and track an incoming projectile, it must be able to use that tracking data to predict the future course of that projectile, and it must be able to accurately be able to get in the way of that projectile. In Israel’s case there’s a further requirement. Because most of Hamas’ arsenal has a range of just two to 20 miles, it has to do all of this very, very quickly.
10-20 seconds, actually
It starts with radar stations that detect a missile or artillery shell moving toward Israeli airspace. Trajectory data on the missile are beamed to a battle control system, which quickly assembles a ballistic profile of the missle—where it is now, how fast it is moving, and where it is going to be. The system and its overseers then make a decision; Is this projectile a threat to a populated area, or is it destined for a rural field or some place where people are not likely to be harmed. Roughly two-thirds of the rockets fired thus far from Gaza have fallen into the latter category, and Iron Dome lets those rockets fall harmlessly.
But if an incoming rocket is perceived to be a threat, that radar data is quickly transferred to a fixed or mobile missile battery—each of which packs 20 radar-guided Tamir interceptor missiles. Those missiles have thus far proven adequately effective in tracking down Hamas missiles in flight and destroying them before they can reach their targets. Moreover, they seem to have grown even more effective since the system was first deployed last year. In three separate (but much smaller) engagements last year, Iron Dome experienced success rates ranging from 80 percent in a short April conflict to a low of roughly 30 percent last October, when it stopped just three of nine incoming missiles. An inquiry into that October event found that a radar failure caused some of the interceptors to deviate from their marks. That, quite apparently, has been fixed.
Another driver of Iron Dome’s success could be as simple as Moore’s Law. It takes a lot of raw computing power to rapidly build a ballistic profile of a fast-incoming projectile, make a series of quick decisions concerning potential lethality, and launch a countermeasure capable of intercepting said projectile in-flight. One reason Iron Dome is showing a much more robust capability than the Patriot system did in the early 1990s could simply be the fact that its battle control hardware and software are several generations more advanced than those early interceptor systems.
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posted by Epaminondas at permanent link#

1 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Excellent piece! I have worked in Afghanistan as a civilian contractor for a little over three years now. While in country, I live on the various US or NATO bases - Kandahar and Bagram being my most common billets.

These bases are frequently under rocket attack. The rockets are generally 107mm rockets launched from extremely crude launch sites not far from the bases. They are not accurate or reliable, but over ten years of war in Afghanistan, they have killed a respectable number of people and destroyed hundreds of millions of dollars worth of military property. NATO and the US have had access to defensive systems that would counter these rocket attacks for years, but choose not to deploy them out of fear of offending the locals.

NATO and the US have written Rules of Engagement (ROE) that essentially outlaw such defensive systems lest some poor innocent Afghani get hit by a stray round or shrapnel.

Let's think about this for a moment.

Despite their verbose platitudes, NATO member countries and the US military are in Afghanistan to kill Muslims. Whether they be terrorists, combatants, drug dealers, or enemies of the Afghan state - they are Muslims and they are being killed at a respectable (albeit slow) rate by western military forces. These same forces claim a commitment to respecting the local culture (even though some of their leadership can't respect the institution of marriage) and codify this commitment in ROE that outlaws systems similar to Iron Dome, thus exposing western troops and civilians to unnecessary levels of risk from rocket attacks.

Now this is just crazy.

Thursday, November 22, 2012 9:23:00 am  

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