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Sunday, November 04, 2012

On this day in 1980 the electorate broke for Reagan


Gallup today has doubled down on their methodology.
Polls state to state have reflected late movement, and most if not all in Romney’s favor.
Yet, we have Nate Silver and Charlie Cook still claiming Obama is the ODDS ON winner, with RealclearPolitics showing InTrade on the election 2-1 for Obama.
One of the pre-emininent electorate experts, Michael Barone has called this election for Romney and BIG by electoral results.
Karl Rove has numbers certainly giving direction to this conclusion.
Paul Krugman claims today anyone believing this election is close is STUPID (he thinks Obama big).
Rasmussen shows a tie, but Romney shockingly ahead in key states now.
In other words, no one has any frickin’ idea what’s going on.
Good.
So predicting this election comes down to ONE THING.
Churchill always felt it was wise (or so he said) to put your faith in the people. The folks voting for Mitt Romney by and large are not doing so because he is some sort of American Hero, nor a savior  nor to fundamentally change what american has traditionally been all about. They are not voting for him out of a hope he will make politics better.
I think the vast majority of Romney voters are doing so because they SEE Mr. Obama. Not as evil, not as a commie or socialist. People see what other people ARE if they can see a person long enough.
People are voting for Mitt Romney because they think we are really in deep trouble wherever they look (wrong track). People are voting for Mitt Romney because they think he is more likely to get us going than Obama, who has failed except by the very low standards they set for themselves when faced by their own criteria of 2009.
In 1980 the closing set of polls gave hope to those who felt Carter also had failed, and even though he won only 50.8% of the votes, the electoral college result exceeded what Michael Barone predicts for Tuesday.
So to predict the result of this election you have to have faith that the majority of people in the states controlling 270 electors have correctly identified that America is in deep trouble.
I can’t predict the result of this election because I am using this election to tell me if we are the nation I hope we are.
I am afraid we are not.
But I take hope in this:
No one out there has a clue who is going to win this thing.
One result is certain: The science of polling is going to change as a result of tuesday.
Wednesday, (if we don’t have to wait for lawsuits, riots, the ‘motherfucker’ burning down via grandma’s arsonists, and Ohio’s absentee counts) either my fear (and De Toqueville’s) about where we are will be validated, or the American people will show it’s not so easy, exceptionalism is real, and many of us will be filled with faith.
It is hard to see Obama being reelected and not see decline, and violence abroad coming for us as a result of his wishful attitudes. Since I decried what was clearly coming as obvious 4 years ago, my faith today is not exactly in surplus.
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posted by Epaminondas at permanent link#

6 Comments:

Blogger Mutaman said...

"Yet, we have Nate Silver and Charlie Cook still claiming Obama is the ODDS ON winner"

Not true- Silver says Obama is an odds on favorite, big difference.

Amazing how unsophisticated folks are when it comes to simple statistical and wagering propositions.

Sunday, November 04, 2012 9:53:00 pm  
Blogger Pastorius said...

Epa,
The way you phrased this sentence,

"In 1980 the closing set of polls gave hope to those who felt Carter also had failed, and even though he won only 50.8% of the votes, the electoral college result exceeded what Michael Barone predicts for Tuesday."

... makes it sound like the 1980 election was close.

It was not.

Reagan 50.7%
Carter 41%
John Anderson 6.6%

It was a rout.

And yet, it surprised the media and the pollsters at the time.

Sunday, November 04, 2012 10:15:00 pm  
Blogger Epaminondas said...

It was a strange election because Anderson pulled MANY liberal republican votes, especially from the northeast.

But until this sunday in 1980 it was too close to call, and only internal polling on monday told carter the election was lost. To my memory, no one had any idea that election was going to turn out that way.

Reagan did only win just a bare majority, though it was a 3 man race.

I would be thrilled with 50.8 for Romney, and the same 271 bush had in 2000.

Carter spent the campaign trying to paint Reagan as an extremist. SOUND FAMILIAR?

I don't know about anyone else, but we have literally been praying Romney wins, for the good of the nation.

Sunday, November 04, 2012 11:19:00 pm  
Blogger Epaminondas said...

@mutaman - Silver is just trying to avoid potentially looking like a goddamn fool with that phrasing. If Gallup is right, he is.

He can try to distinguish between numerical analysis and prediction all he wants. It is OBVIOUS what he is saying. 4 out 5 times, Obama wins. ODDS ON for any single trial.

Ipso facto.

Sunday, November 04, 2012 11:23:00 pm  
Blogger Pastorius said...

I'm wit you, Epa, on the praying thing.

Sunday, November 04, 2012 11:30:00 pm  
Blogger Always On Watch said...

I read yesterday that every election held on November 6 since 1800-something went to the Republican Candidate.

Monday, November 05, 2012 9:18:00 am  

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