Thumbsucking

def: The art of thumbsucking – Commentary that speaks gravely about the state of humanity, the future of the world, the nature of power, the condition of international relations and the fusion of economics and politics.

I’ve been doing some thumbsucking on the geo-political future of our world and here’s what I’ve come up with.

By idiocy or design, the West led by Obama, has encouraged and sped up the march of Islamism leading to a Caliphate in the 1.2 billion Muslim world and the flexing of the political and military muscle that follows. This leads to a very frightening geo-political scenario sometime 10 or 20 years out.

The Caliphate, which I call the theater of the coming Great East-West War, will stretch from North Africa through the Middle East through ‘chaosistan’ to South-East Asia and Indonesia.  Europe, through the weakness of it Leftist-Socialist policies of appeasing its Mulsim population, will eventually fall into civil war between the Islamo-fascists and the Neo-fascists. The EU, after years of Islamic infiltration and staggering from internal Leftist corruption, will easily collapse. Very similar to France in the 1930s.

Though they had the largest army in Europe – much bigger than Germany – when the war came, the French took a passive defensive strategy behind their impregnable Maginot Line instead of attacking Germany directly.  Years of internal strife between communists, democrats and fascists had sapped the political and military moral of the nation.

Russia, seeing the rise of the Caliphate, will pull a 1939 political coup forming a political alliance with the Caliphate in return for peaceful Muslim borders with ‘chaosistan’ and an agreement to retake the former Soviet Block countries east of Poland and reestablish most of the former Soviet Union when Islam wins the civil war in Western Europe.

To carry the pre-World War Two scenario further, South America will be 21^st century equivalent of the Spanish Civil War of the mid-1930s.  On one side will be the Marxist/Socialist led by people like Chavez and countries that follow his lead, and on the other, Neo-fascists governments like Argentina – all of which are vying for control of large swaths of South America.  Russia will assist the Marxist/Socialists with aide and Iran will take full advantage of the civil wars placing military hardware and nukes in those states – ala, 1962 Cuba.

NATO will have to side with the Neo-fascists in South America as they do in the European civil war but will send little aide now that the progressive Left have been in power for some years. The 1930s scenario playing out again when England and France, tired of prior wars as the US is now, could not put up much a political resistance.

So where does this leave the rest of the geo-political world?

China will of course resist any attempts of the Islamists causing strife in China.  In fact, they will form a political and military alliance with the United States and Canada to confront the Islamic Caliphate in the war.

What about India and Australia?

India will be surrounded on both sides by the Caliphate. Though they have a large Muslim population in their country, I believe they will not allow it to create enough internal strife to prevent India from defending its borders.   They’ve had experience with Muslim trouble-making before. In addition, India will join China and the U.S. in the alliance.

Now, Australia.  They may go the route of Great Britain and Europe. The signs point to having enough Muslim infiltration to create political strife in this scenario.  Will they suppress the Muslim insurrection and join the alliance or have civil war? Hard to tell.

That leaves Israel and the U.S.

There are passive Leftists in the Likud. They will oust Netanyahu. It’s looking that way now since Obama was re-elected.

How any Israeli can be a Leftist with the country being told by its enemies’ that they will wipe Israel out is beyond me. But they exist.  But seeing France and England’s response to Nazi aggression before 1939 was unbelievable too. They just stuck their heads in the sand and hoped fascism would go away. So too the Left in Israel. They may do nothing before it’s too late. Then either Israel disappears or the IDF executes the Samson Option.  The Samson Option is Israel's alleged deterrence strategy of massive retaliation with nuclear weapons as a "last resort" against nations whose military attacks threaten its existence, and possibly against other targets as well like Median, Mecca, Tehran, etc. I don’t want to think about what a geo-political mess that will cause.  But it would stiffen the Caliphate’s resolve to attack the West.

Finally, the U.S.

After years of Leftist rule, the U.S., like France, is torn by internal strife, weakened military and a bankrupt nation unable to fight a sustainable conventional war. That leaves only one option.

Nukes. And that option is the one preferred by the Caliphate. But what about the other nukes in Western Europe, Russia, and China – and Iran and Pakistan?

As I said, Russia will stay out of the Great East-West War. They will only benefit.  The U.S. can’t allow the nukes of Great Brittan and France to fall into the hands of the Caliphate. Though we will be unable or unwilling to interfere in the civil war in Europe, we will send in strike teams or ballistic missiles to neutralize the nukes in those countries. That leaves the U.S. and China with whatever nukes they have to counter the Caliphate’s.

The U.S. will also have to deal with nukes supplied by Iran and Pakistan and even North Korea in South America further diluting our military resources. Will there be a stand off with most of the world Islamic and the remaining non-Islamic? Another Cold War? Or will the Caliphate press the button and usher in their paradise on earth?