Hezbollah is getting its ass kicked. Their Iranian 'advisors' managed to hit an Israeli naval vessell with an Iranian-made radar-guilded C-102 missile yesterday (not a crude drone as first reported). Except for that it's been pretty one-sided, as the blogger Sandmonkey says in his anti-Hezbollah rant:
Now, I for one awaited the Hezbollah surprise, and I have to say I found it rather dissapointing. They hit one f-ckin ship. That’s the surprise? That’s what the Israelis should beware? Hehehe. Dude, they blew up half of Beirut, they destroyed Nasrallah’s home and Office, and he is now hiding like a rat, declaring war on a cellphone since he no longer dares to show his face in public. He declares open war from a hideout and he doesn’t even have the means to have it televized. We are suppsoed to be impressed by this? What are your war capabilities you f-ckhead if in one day you run hiding and can’t even show your face? What is this bullsh-t anyway? And you know the Israelis haven’t even started fighting yet.True, true. The war is not going well from Hezbollah's perspective. Indeed the war is entirely playing to Israel's strength and Hezbollah's weaknesses. What do you do in this situation? You change the entire configuration of the conflict so that it plays to your strengths and your enemies weakness.
Hezbollah is not known as a conventional military power. Hezbollah's only real weapons are the 12-15000 rockets they can fire into Israel. But at the current rate they will deplete those rockets in 2-3 weeks. The only real risk from the Israel's point of view if that the IDF may run out of targets. Hezbollah has to open the war on yet another front. Israel is fighting in the south and the north. Hezbollah will expand the war to the frontless-front: the diaspora.
Soon, perhaps withing days, Hezbollah will attempt to attack an Israeli or Jewish target far removed from the battlefield. Obviously Europe presents the most tempting and probably the most rewarding target. I'm sure the Israeli embassies are on high alert and are well guarded. But there are too many soft targets: community centers, temples, charities, schools, Jewish-owned businesses. etc. With a little help from Iranian and/or Syrian intelligence Hezbollah can kill a lot of people and cause significant damage in the heart of European cities.
And the topper is that the Europeans would blame Israel. In Lebanon, on the battlefield Hezbollah can't win. In Europe, in a terror war, Hezbollah can't lose.
7 comments:
Hey guys,
Our email server is on the fritz. I think the spammer thingie is not working so doesn't allow the good stuff in either. The ISP is working on it.
I agree -- hard to leave the screen in fear of missing what might be going on. THis is so crucial.
BTW, a request to admin: Can you please put up a Big Infidel Hunk of the Week with John Bolton and his moustache (isn't it named Rufus, or some such? Got to love a guy who names his moustache. Yum)
Interesting analysis. Do you think maybe they might expand to American targets as well?
We are supporting Israel, after all.
I fail to see how Israel is winning either in Lebanon or Gaza. Israel is invading those areas for good reason. But what good are the invasions going to do? Israel occupied Gaza from 1967 to 2005 and South-Lebanon from 1978 (or 1982) to 2000. It never did Israel any good. Is the US getting anywhere with its invasion of Iraq and Aghanistan?
It is just adding liabilities.
The West is pretty good at invading lands and trashing non-Western armies. But we do not know what to do with what we have gained.
And meanwhile the West (EU and USA) continue to allow non-Westerners to invade our lands and societies. Just in civilian clothes, with the assistance of the same governments that are running the defense forces of the West that are proving to be so useless.
The OTHER side is winning. Not us. The Israelis are clueless. Just like the Europeans. Just like the Americans.
All the bombing and maneuvering is not getting us anywhere. Were are just gaining ground and populations we can not hold. Liabilities.
And make a distinction between the Euro elites who still love immigration and the Euro populations who are more and more geting fed up with Islam and multiculturalism. Only nobody is giving the population a voice.
Wow, I'd love to hear Snouck's solution.
Thomas,
The War has just about taken over my life. I can't leave the laptop.
So, I'm not alone! I can't get out of the house! I've on the laptop, with the cable-news channels on as well.
Pastorius,
Do you think maybe they might expand to American targets as well?
I think so. Hamas and Hezbollah have supporters here in the United States. We have many vulnerable targets.
Pastorius,
There is no solution as in a painless formula that can be applied to the situation the West finds itself in right now. In math there are solutions. In war and real life there is just survival. Often a dirty business.
The West is strong in war making capabilities, but weak in resolve. In war both sides play on the other sides weaknesses. Hamas and Hizbullah play on the western abhorrence of losses and reliance on technology.
If we would have the will to fight the conflict with the seriousness that it requires we should consider to take measures against the enemy that they fear and cannot oppose.
An example. Israel has a problem with the Gaza strip. Hamas keeps raining missiles on Israeli towns. Occupation does not get Israel anywhere.
So ethnically cleanse the Gaza strip. Do not kill the civilians. But force them to leave to Egypt. Settle the land with Jews. Egypt has a strong central government, which neither the Palestinians nor the Lebanese do have. This is not the fault of the Lebanese or the Palestinians by the way, it is just one of those things. If the Palestinians are housed far away from the Israeli border the problem will not be solved, but seriously have been migitated. And in 5 years the world media will have forgotten about what happened, just as the Balkan conflict has largely been forgotten by now. So the repercussions for Israel in terms of international condemnation will be short lived.
The situation in Lebanon is more difficult to solve. I will just suggest not to play by the rules as have been laid out in the last 200 years by Western armies. There is no point in either killing or imprisoning Hizbollah fighters. Something that really scares them should be done to get them. I will leave to the imagination to what really scares Middle Easterners. It is not such a bad thing to do from our perspective, just highly unusual.
For Europe and the USA goes the same. Get rid of the Muslims and other invaders. It is not the end of the problem, but will address the greatest weakness of current Western societies. Again do not kill the enemy. But realise that he is an enemy and there is no point in letting him increase his strengths whilst paying his bills!
The biggest obstacles to implementing these approaches are that such policies are not an accepted part of warfare plus the political correctness of the political class, the educational establishment and the media. The military establishemnt is still in love with the industrial mode of war and wants to buy toys and play with them.
As long as we keep playing we will keep on gaining short lived victories and long term defeats.
The second world war is over. We are not fighting Nazis or Fashists (or Islamofashists). The second world war is long over. We are fighting Muslims. They are more or less the same for the last 1400 years.
If our forefathers could win so can we. But our forefathers were hard men. Hard on others and hard on themselves. For the time being we seem to have lost that hardness.
We will see many defeats before we have toughened up. That is okay, it is surprising how much people can bear, once they have to. At some point we will have to change our tack though or the situation will not be rectifiable.
Oh and before I forget. The Western birth rate has to increase. Just a little thing really :-)
Snouck,
Ok, now I understand. Yes, you are correct that was the solution to previous Muslim invasions, and ultimately, it will likely be the only longterm solution this time.
I think we are a few years and a few leveled cities away from implementing such a solution though.
It would save a lot of lives if we would just wake up now, but it ain't gonna happen.
It is amazing that we have history as a blueprint for this whole war, but we choose to ignore it.
Post a Comment